Motherwell vs St Mirren prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
Motherwell to win: 54%, about 1 in 2
Goals call3+ goals 61% · bookies 61%
Bookmakers' prices with their margin removed; a stats preview does not adjust them with news.
The Verdict
The coach and the sceptic both note that 61% for over 2.5 sits above the sides' 60% season rate and 40% both-teams-score record, so a tight, low-scoring home win is the consensus shape.
What our AI analysts say
1 of 3 think St Mirren's chances are better than the bookmakers say. It does not make St Mirren favourites.
The Coach
styles in the numbersTwo leaky defences and a high-scoring league point to goals, with Motherwell's home edge decisive.
Motherwell average just 0.60 goals per game at home against 1.60 away, while St Mirren manage only 0.80 on the road.
The Dressing Room
the table and pressureMotherwell's six-match losing run puts the pressure squarely on the home side.
Motherwell are 10th on 8 points and have lost their last six in all competitions; at home it reads L L L W L with 4 scored and 11 conceded. St Mirren sit 6th on 13 points. Both teams have had one game in 14 days, so freshness is even.
The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongThe home lean looks fair, but 61% for over 2.5 may be a touch rich.
With both teams scoring only 40% of the time this season, 61% over 2.5 could be a couple of points high.
St Mirren: slightly underrated
Low Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
In short
Motherwell are favourites at 54%, with St Mirren on 23% and the draw on 23%. Motherwell are 10th and St Mirren 6th in the Scottish Premiership. In their last five league games, Motherwell won none and St Mirren one.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Motherwell win or draw
- 77%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 77%
- St Mirren win or draw
- 46%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 82%
- 3+ goals
- 61%
- 4+ goals
- 39%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 60%
- No
- 40%
We expect about 1.9 goals from Motherwell and 1.2 from St Mirren. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (10%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 10. Next: 2–1 (10%), 1–0 (8%), 2–0 (8%), 3–1 (6%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 54% | 23% | 23% | Stats preview | #1977 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Motherwell: last 6
LLLLLL · 3 scored, 14 conceded
| 25 Oct | vs Heart Of Midlothian | 0–2 | L |
| 17 Oct | at Kilmarnock | 2–3 | L |
| 11 Oct | vs Celtic | 0–2 | L |
| 19 Sep | at Dundee | 1–2 | L |
| 15 Sep | vs Aberdeen | 0–4 | L |
| 5 Sep | at Rangers | 0–1 | L |
Last 5 at home: LLLWL
St Mirren: last 6
WLLLLL · 4 scored, 15 conceded
| 24 Oct | vs Dundee | 2–1 | W |
| 17 Oct | at Aberdeen | 1–3 | L |
| 10 Oct | at Heart Of Midlothian | 0–5 | L |
| 19 Sep | vs Dundee Utd | 0–3 | L |
| 9 Sep | at Rangers | 0–1 | L |
| 5 Sep | vs Celtic | 1–2 | L |
Last 5 away: LLLWW
Season stats
| Motherwell | St Mirren | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.10 | Goals scored per game | 1.10 |
| 1.80 | Goals conceded per game | 1.80 |
| 0.60 | Scored per game at home | 1.40 |
| 1.60 | Scored per game away | 0.80 |
| 60% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 60% |
| 40% | Both teams scored | 40% |
| 20% | Clean sheets | 30% |
| 50% | Failed to score | 30% |
League matches only, 10 games each.
Scottish Premiership table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Heart Of Midlothian | 10 | +7 | 19 | WLWDL |
| 4 | Dundee Utd | 10 | +0 | 15 | WDWWD |
| 5 | Dundee | 10 | +2 | 14 | LDWWL |
| 6 | St Mirren | 10 | -7 | 13 | WLLLL |
| 7 | Falkirk | 10 | +0 | 12 | WWLDW |
| 8 | ST Johnstone | 10 | -4 | 12 | LDWDL |
| 9 | Aberdeen | 10 | -1 | 11 | LWLDW |
| 10 | Motherwell | 10 | -7 | 8 | LLLLL |
| 11 | Kilmarnock | 10 | -13 | 8 | LWLDW |
| 12 | Hibernian | 10 | -6 | 7 | LLLDL |
Match context
- Travel for St Mirren
- 27 km
- Rest days
- Motherwell 6St Mirren 7
- Matches in the last 14 days: Motherwell 1 · St Mirren 1
- Weather at kick-off
- 12°C · wind 7 km/h
- Rain expected
- Goals in this league
- Scottish Premiership average: 2.82 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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