St Mirren vs Hibernian prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
Hibernian to win: 47%, about 1 in 2
Goals call3+ goals 58% · bookies 58%
Bookmakers' prices with their margin removed; a stats preview does not adjust them with news.
The Verdict
All three lean the same way: Hibernian as narrow favourites, but with real doubts about their form and away scoring. The Coach backs the published 58% over 2.5, the Sceptic trims it slightly, and the Dressing Room sees two out-of-sorts sides, so a draw sits well inside the picture.
What our AI analysts say
1 of 2 think a draw is underrated.
The Dressing Room
the table and pressureBottom-side Hibernian arrive desperate, but St Mirren's recent run is hardly soothing
St Mirren sit 6th on 13 points after 4 wins in 10, but their last six include five defeats; Hibernian are 12th on 7 points with one win in six.
The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongHead-to-head has 3 draws in 6 and 2.3 goals per game; 58% over 2.5 looks a touch high.
Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
This is a data-only read
Our AI scouts have read the numbers for this match, not the team news.
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In short
Hibernian are favourites at 47%, with St Mirren on 28% and the draw on 25%. St Mirren are 6th and Hibernian 12th in the Scottish Premiership. In their last five league games, St Mirren won one and Hibernian none.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- St Mirren win or draw
- 53%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 75%
- Hibernian win or draw
- 72%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 81%
- 3+ goals
- 58%
- 4+ goals
- 36%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 60%
- No
- 40%
We expect about 1.3 goals from St Mirren and 1.7 from Hibernian. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (11%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 9. Next: 1–2 (9%), 0–1 (8%), 0–2 (7%), 2–1 (7%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. The full analysis with team news can be requested on this page before kick-off. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 28% | 25% | 47% | Stats preview | #1697 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
St Mirren: last 6
WLLLLL · 4 scored, 15 conceded
| 24 Oct | vs Dundee | 2–1 | W |
| 17 Oct | at Aberdeen | 1–3 | L |
| 10 Oct | at Heart Of Midlothian | 0–5 | L |
| 19 Sep | vs Dundee Utd | 0–3 | L |
| 9 Sep | at Rangers | 0–1 | L |
| 5 Sep | vs Celtic | 1–2 | L |
Last 5 at home: WLLDW
Hibernian: last 6
LLLDLL · 4 scored, 9 conceded
| 25 Oct | vs Celtic | 1–2 | L |
| 17 Oct | vs Falkirk | 1–2 | L |
| 10 Oct | at Dundee Utd | 0–1 | L |
| 19 Sep | vs Aberdeen | 1–1 | D |
| 15 Sep | vs Kilmarnock | 0–1 | L |
| 6 Sep | at ST Johnstone | 1–2 | L |
Last 5 away: LLWDD
Season stats
| St Mirren | Hibernian | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.10 | Goals scored per game | 1.00 |
| 1.80 | Goals conceded per game | 1.60 |
| 1.40 | Scored per game at home | 0.83 |
| 0.80 | Scored per game away | 1.25 |
| 60% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 70% |
| 40% | Both teams scored | 80% |
| 30% | Clean sheets | 0% |
| 30% | Failed to score | 20% |
League matches only, 10 games each.
Scottish Premiership table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Heart Of Midlothian | 10 | +7 | 19 | WLWDL |
| 4 | Dundee Utd | 10 | +0 | 15 | WDWWD |
| 5 | Dundee | 10 | +2 | 14 | LDWWL |
| 6 | St Mirren | 10 | -7 | 13 | WLLLL |
| 7 | Falkirk | 10 | +0 | 12 | WWLDW |
| 8 | ST Johnstone | 10 | -4 | 12 | LDWDL |
| 9 | Aberdeen | 10 | -1 | 11 | LWLDW |
| 10 | Motherwell | 10 | -7 | 8 | LLLLL |
| 11 | Kilmarnock | 10 | -13 | 8 | LWLDW |
| 12 | Hibernian | 10 | -6 | 7 | LLLDL |
Head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: St Mirren won 1, Hibernian 2, 3 draws; 2.3 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Feb 2026 | Hibernian | 2–0 | St Mirren | Premiership |
| 8 Nov 2025 | St Mirren | 0–3 | Hibernian | Premiership |
| 31 Aug 2025 | Hibernian | 1–1 | St Mirren | Premiership |
| 14 May 2025 | St Mirren | 2–2 | Hibernian | Premiership |
| 16 Feb 2025 | St Mirren | 0–0 | Hibernian | Premiership |
| 9 Nov 2024 | Hibernian | 1–2 | St Mirren | Premiership |
Match context
- Travel for Hibernian
- 78 km
- Rest days
- St Mirren 4Hibernian 3
- Matches in the last 14 days: St Mirren 2 · Hibernian 2
- Weather at kick-off
- 12°C · wind 12 km/h
- Dry
- Goals in this league
- Scottish Premiership average: 2.82 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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