Heart of Midlothian vs Rangers prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
Rangers to win: 46%, about 1 in 2
Goals call3+ goals 60% · bookies 60%
Bookmakers' prices with their margin removed; a stats preview does not adjust them with news.
The Verdict
All three lean Rangers, but only narrowly: the coach cites their 0.70 goals conceded per game, the dressing room their 2nd place and lighter fixture load, while the sceptic notes Hearts' strong head-to-head record at home. On goals, Hearts' 80% over rate and 3.2 goals per head-to-head game support the 60% over 2.5 line.
What our AI analysts say
2 of 3 think Rangers's chances are better than the bookmakers say. The Sceptic thinks Heart of Midlothian are underrated.
The Coach
styles in the numbersTwo attack-minded sides point to goals, with Rangers' defence the key difference
Rangers concede just 0.70 with 50% clean sheets, yet both sides have failed to score 0% of the time.
Rangers: slightly underrated
Low The Dressing Room
the table and pressureSecond hosts third with Rangers' lighter load a real edge in Edinburgh
Rangers sit 2nd on 23 points from 10 games, three ahead of 3rd-placed Hearts on 19. Rangers have lost once all season; Hearts have lost three.
Rangers: slightly underrated
Low The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongRangers' away record and head-to-head suggest the market may underrate Hearts
Hearts won 3 of the last 6 head-to-heads, including 2-1 in 2026, and beat Rangers 2-1 at home. Rangers' away form is D W W W L with only 6 scored. The 46% away price looks slightly high; 60% for over 2.5 looks fair given 3.2 goals per head-to-head game.
Heart of Midlothian: slightly underrated
Low Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
This is a data-only read
Our AI scouts have read the numbers for this match, not the team news.
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In short
Rangers are favourites at 46%, with Heart of Midlothian on 29% and the draw on 25%. Heart of Midlothian are 3rd and Rangers 2nd in the Scottish Premiership. In their last five league games, Heart of Midlothian won two and Rangers four.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Heart of Midlothian win or draw
- 54%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 75%
- Rangers win or draw
- 71%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 82%
- 3+ goals
- 60%
- 4+ goals
- 38%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 61%
- No
- 39%
We expect about 1.4 goals from Heart of Midlothian and 1.8 from Rangers. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (11%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 9. Next: 1–2 (9%), 0–1 (8%), 2–1 (7%), 0–2 (7%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. The full analysis with team news can be requested on this page before kick-off. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 29% | 25% | 46% | Stats preview | #1714 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Heart of Midlothian: last 6
WLLDWD · 10 scored, 11 conceded
| 25 Oct | at Motherwell | 2–0 | W |
| 22 Oct | at Trabzonspor UEFA Europa Conference League | 0–2 | L |
| 18 Oct | at Celtic | 1–7 | L |
| 15 Oct | vs FC Nordsjaelland UEFA Europa Conference League | 1–1 | D |
| 10 Oct | vs ST Mirren | 5–0 | W |
| 19 Sep | at Kilmarnock | 1–1 | D |
Last 5 at home: DWWWD
Rangers: last 6
WDWWWW · 12 scored, 3 conceded
| 24 Oct | vs ST Johnstone | 4–0 | W |
| 17 Oct | at Dundee | 2–2 | D |
| 10 Oct | vs Kilmarnock | 3–1 | W |
| 20 Sep | at Celtic | 1–0 | W |
| 9 Sep | vs ST Mirren | 1–0 | W |
| 5 Sep | vs Motherwell | 1–0 | W |
Last 5 away: DWWWL
Season stats
| Heart of Midlothian | Rangers | |
|---|---|---|
| 2.20 | Goals scored per game | 1.70 |
| 1.50 | Goals conceded per game | 0.70 |
| 3.25 | Scored per game at home | 2.00 |
| 1.50 | Scored per game away | 1.40 |
| 80% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 50% |
| 70% | Both teams scored | 50% |
| 30% | Clean sheets | 50% |
| 0% | Failed to score | 0% |
League matches only, 10 games each.
Scottish Premiership table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Celtic | 10 | +19 | 27 | WWWLW |
| 2 | Rangers | 10 | +10 | 23 | WDWWW |
| 3 | Heart of Midlothian | 10 | +7 | 19 | WLWDL |
| 4 | Dundee Utd | 10 | +0 | 15 | WDWWD |
| 5 | Dundee | 10 | +2 | 14 | LDWWL |
| 6 | ST Mirren | 10 | -7 | 13 | WLLLL |
Head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Heart of Midlothian won 3, Rangers 3, 0 draws; 3.2 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 May 2026 | Heart of Midlothian | 2–1 | Rangers | Premiership |
| 15 Feb 2026 | Rangers | 4–2 | Heart of Midlothian | Premiership |
| 21 Dec 2025 | Heart of Midlothian | 2–1 | Rangers | Premiership |
| 13 Sep 2025 | Rangers | 0–2 | Heart of Midlothian | Premiership |
| 16 Feb 2025 | Heart of Midlothian | 1–3 | Rangers | Premiership |
| 10 Nov 2024 | Rangers | 1–0 | Heart of Midlothian | Premiership |
Match context
- Travel for Rangers
- 66 km
- Rest days
- Heart of Midlothian 3Rangers 4
- Matches in the last 14 days: Heart of Midlothian 4 · Rangers 2
- Weather at kick-off
- 11°C · wind 18 km/h
- Dry
- Goals in this league
- Scottish Premiership average: 2.82 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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