Aberdeen vs Falkirk prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
Aberdeen to win: 47%, about 1 in 2
Goals call3+ goals 53% · bookies 53%
Bookmakers' prices with their margin removed; a stats preview does not adjust them with news.
The Verdict
All three readings land near the published numbers on the 1X2, with only the Sceptic nudging Falkirk up to 30%. A close game leaning to Aberdeen, with goals slightly less likely than the market suggests.
What our AI analysts say
1 of 3 think Falkirk's chances are better than the bookmakers say. It does not make Falkirk favourites.
The Coach
styles in the numbersTwo even attacks, but Aberdeen's home scoring dip and low-scoring head-to-head point under the goal line.
Falkirk's 70% both-teams-score rate keeps them live, but their away scoring is 1.00 per game. A tight, low-margin contest looks likelier than a goal feast.
The Dressing Room
the table and pressureOne point and one place apart, with Aberdeen's home wobble against Falkirk's steady away run.
Aberdeen sit 9th on 11 points, Falkirk 7th on 12, so both need the win. Equal rest at four days each levels the load.
The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongThe 53% over line looks too high given the head-to-head and Aberdeen's blunt home record.
The last three meetings averaged 1.3 goals with Falkirk winning two and drawing one, yet the away side is priced at just 27%. Aberdeen fail to score in 50% of matches and both teams scored in only 40% of theirs. The over at 53% and the home lean both look a shade generous.
Falkirk: slightly underrated
More goalsLow Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
This is a data-only read
Our AI scouts have read the numbers for this match, not the team news.
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In short
Aberdeen are favourites at 47%, with Falkirk on 27% and the draw on 26%. Aberdeen are 9th and Falkirk 7th in the Scottish Premiership. In their last five league games, Aberdeen won two and Falkirk three.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Aberdeen win or draw
- 73%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 73%
- Falkirk win or draw
- 53%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 77%
- 3+ goals
- 53%
- 4+ goals
- 30%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 55%
- No
- 45%
We expect about 1.6 goals from Aberdeen and 1.2 from Falkirk. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (12%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 9. Next: 1–0 (10%), 2–1 (9%), 2–0 (8%), 0–1 (7%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. The full analysis with team news can be requested on this page before kick-off. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 47% | 27% | 27% | Stats preview | #1711 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Aberdeen: last 6
LWLDWD · 10 scored, 6 conceded
| 24 Oct | at Dundee Utd | 2–3 | L |
| 17 Oct | vs ST Mirren | 3–1 | W |
| 11 Oct | vs ST Johnstone | 0–1 | L |
| 19 Sep | at Hibernian | 1–1 | D |
| 15 Sep | at Motherwell | 4–0 | W |
| 5 Sep | vs Kilmarnock | 0–0 | D |
Last 5 at home: WLDLW
Falkirk: last 6
WWLDWD · 10 scored, 6 conceded
| 24 Oct | vs Kilmarnock | 3–0 | W |
| 17 Oct | at Hibernian | 2–1 | W |
| 10 Oct | vs Dundee | 1–2 | L |
| 19 Sep | at ST Johnstone | 1–1 | D |
| 15 Sep | vs Heart Of Midlothian | 2–1 | W |
| 5 Sep | at Dundee Utd | 1–1 | D |
Last 5 away: WDDLD
Season stats
| Aberdeen | Falkirk | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.20 | Goals scored per game | 1.20 |
| 1.30 | Goals conceded per game | 1.20 |
| 1.00 | Scored per game at home | 1.40 |
| 1.40 | Scored per game away | 1.00 |
| 50% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 60% |
| 40% | Both teams scored | 70% |
| 20% | Clean sheets | 20% |
| 50% | Failed to score | 20% |
League matches only, 10 games each.
Scottish Premiership table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Dundee Utd | 10 | +0 | 15 | WDWWD |
| 5 | Dundee | 10 | +2 | 14 | LDWWL |
| 6 | ST Mirren | 10 | -7 | 13 | WLLLL |
| 7 | Falkirk | 10 | +0 | 12 | WWLDW |
| 8 | ST Johnstone | 10 | -4 | 12 | LDWDL |
| 9 | Aberdeen | 10 | -1 | 11 | LWLDW |
| 10 | Motherwell | 10 | -7 | 8 | LLLLL |
| 11 | Kilmarnock | 10 | -13 | 8 | LWLDW |
| 12 | Hibernian | 10 | -6 | 7 | LLLDL |
Head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Aberdeen won 0, Falkirk 2, 1 draw; 1.3 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Mar 2026 | Aberdeen | 1–1 | Falkirk | Premiership |
| 3 Jan 2026 | Falkirk | 1–0 | Aberdeen | Premiership |
| 31 Aug 2025 | Aberdeen | 0–1 | Falkirk | Premiership |
Match context
- Travel for Falkirk
- 163 km
- Rest days
- Aberdeen 4Falkirk 4
- Matches in the last 14 days: Aberdeen 2 · Falkirk 2
- Weather at kick-off
- 11°C · wind 11 km/h
- Dry
- Goals in this league
- Scottish Premiership average: 2.82 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
18+ · Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. If you bet, bet only what you can afford to lose. Responsible gambling
