Dundee vs Kilmarnock prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
Dundee to win: 50%, about 1 in 2
Goals call3+ goals 61% · bookies 61%
Bookmakers' prices with their margin removed; a stats preview does not adjust them with news.
The Verdict
On goals, the 61% over 2.5 line is backed by both teams' scoring and conceding rates and their shared 60% over-rate, so a competitive, open game is the consensus view.
What our AI analysts say
Our analysts are split: The Dressing Room thinks Dundee are underrated; The Sceptic thinks Kilmarnock are underrated.
The Coach
styles in the numbersBoth sides' numbers point to goals at both ends.
Dundee score 1.60 per game at home and both teams have scored in 70% of their league matches; Kilmarnock concede 2.30 per game.
The Dressing Room
the table and pressureTable pressure should push Dundee on in front of their own fans.
Dundee sit 5th with 14 points from 10 games; Kilmarnock are 11th on 8 points after six defeats. Dundee's home form reads D W D L W with 8 scored, while Kilmarnock have lost three of their last five away. Both had 4 days' rest, so freshness is even.
Dundee: slightly underrated
Low The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongThe prices look fair, though the H2H tempers Dundee slightly.
Published numbers give Dundee 50% and over 2.5 at 61%, which matches the season scoring rates. But the last six head-to-heads are 2-2-2 with 3.2 goals per game, and Kilmarnock won 3-1 and drew 2-2 in 2026 meetings, so the away side may be a touch underpriced.
Kilmarnock: slightly underrated
Low Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
This is a data-only read
Our AI scouts have read the numbers for this match, not the team news.
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In short
Dundee are favourites at 50%, with Kilmarnock on 26% and the draw on 24%. Dundee are 5th and Kilmarnock 11th in the Scottish Premiership. In their last five league games, Dundee won two and Kilmarnock two.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Dundee win or draw
- 74%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 76%
- Kilmarnock win or draw
- 50%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 82%
- 3+ goals
- 61%
- 4+ goals
- 39%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 61%
- No
- 39%
We expect about 1.9 goals from Dundee and 1.3 from Kilmarnock. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (10%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 10. Next: 2–1 (10%), 1–0 (8%), 2–0 (7%), 1–2 (7%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. The full analysis with team news can be requested on this page before kick-off. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 50% | 24% | 26% | Stats preview | #1712 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Dundee: last 6
LDWWLD · 9 scored, 9 conceded
| 24 Oct | at ST Mirren | 1–2 | L |
| 17 Oct | vs Rangers | 2–2 | D |
| 10 Oct | at Falkirk | 2–1 | W |
| 19 Sep | vs Motherwell | 2–1 | W |
| 6 Sep | at Heart Of Midlothian | 1–2 | L |
| 2 Sep | vs ST Johnstone | 1–1 | D |
Last 5 at home: DWDLW
Kilmarnock: last 6
LWLDWD · 6 scored, 9 conceded
| 24 Oct | at Falkirk | 0–3 | L |
| 17 Oct | vs Motherwell | 3–2 | W |
| 10 Oct | at Rangers | 1–3 | L |
| 19 Sep | vs Heart Of Midlothian | 1–1 | D |
| 15 Sep | at Hibernian | 1–0 | W |
| 5 Sep | at Aberdeen | 0–0 | D |
Last 5 away: LLWDL
Season stats
| Dundee | Kilmarnock | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.40 | Goals scored per game | 1.00 |
| 1.20 | Goals conceded per game | 2.30 |
| 1.60 | Scored per game at home | 1.00 |
| 1.20 | Scored per game away | 1.00 |
| 60% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 60% |
| 70% | Both teams scored | 50% |
| 20% | Clean sheets | 20% |
| 10% | Failed to score | 40% |
League matches only, 10 games each.
Scottish Premiership table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Rangers | 10 | +10 | 23 | WDWWW |
| 3 | Heart Of Midlothian | 10 | +7 | 19 | WLWDL |
| 4 | Dundee Utd | 10 | +0 | 15 | WDWWD |
| 5 | Dundee | 10 | +2 | 14 | LDWWL |
| 6 | ST Mirren | 10 | -7 | 13 | WLLLL |
| 7 | Falkirk | 10 | +0 | 12 | WWLDW |
| 8 | ST Johnstone | 10 | -4 | 12 | LDWDL |
| 9 | Aberdeen | 10 | -1 | 11 | LWLDW |
| 10 | Motherwell | 10 | -7 | 8 | LLLLL |
| 11 | Kilmarnock | 10 | -13 | 8 | LWLDW |
| 12 | Hibernian | 10 | -6 | 7 | LLLDL |
Head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Dundee won 2, Kilmarnock 2, 2 draws; 3.2 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 May 2026 | Kilmarnock | 3–1 | Dundee | Premiership |
| 11 Apr 2026 | Kilmarnock | 2–2 | Dundee | Premiership |
| 17 Jan 2026 | Kilmarnock | 1–2 | Dundee | FA Cup |
| 30 Dec 2025 | Dundee | 2–1 | Kilmarnock | Premiership |
| 23 Aug 2025 | Kilmarnock | 0–0 | Dundee | Premiership |
| 10 May 2025 | Kilmarnock | 3–2 | Dundee | Premiership |
Match context
- Travel for Kilmarnock
- 134 km
- Rest days
- Dundee 4Kilmarnock 4
- Matches in the last 14 days: Dundee 2 · Kilmarnock 2
- Weather at kick-off
- 11°C · wind 19 km/h
- Dry
- Goals in this league
- Scottish Premiership average: 2.82 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
18+ · Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. If you bet, bet only what you can afford to lose. Responsible gambling
