Dundee United vs Heart of Midlothian prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
Heart of Midlothian to win: 44%, about 2 in 5
Not graded: the match did not take place.
The Verdict
All three cards land near the published 30/26/44 split, with the sceptic shading the home side on Hearts' away wobble and the coach seeing goals at both ends. The total reads close to the published 50% for 3+ goals, so the numbers look broadly fair, perhaps marginally kinder to United than the prices suggest.
What our AI analysts say
1 of 3 think Dundee United's chances are better than the bookmakers say. It does not make Dundee United favourites.
The Coach
styles in the numbersBoth attacks look good for a goal, pointing to an open game with chances at both ends
United score 1.20 at home and concede 1.40 a game; Hearts average 3.25 away in this competition yet only 1.50 on the road in the split - the picture is mixed. Hearts fail to score 0% and both teams score in 70% of their matches, so both nets look likely.
Dundee: slightly underrated
Low The Dressing Room
the table and pressureThird versus fourth with a four-point gap gives both sides plenty to play for
United sit 4th with 15 points from 10 games; Hearts are 3rd on 19 after six wins in ten. United have seven days' rest to Hearts' six, but Hearts have played three games in 14 days, which may colour late legs.
The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongThe away lean looks too strong given Hearts' wobbly away form
Hearts lost 1-7 at Celtic and 0-2 at Trabzonspor recently, and are W L L D L away with 12 conceded in five. United are unbeaten in four league games. A 44% away price looks generous; I shade the home side.
Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
In short
Heart of Midlothian are slight favourites at 44%, with Dundee United on 30% and the draw on 26%. Dundee United are 4th and Heart of Midlothian 3rd in the Scottish Premiership. In their last five league games, Dundee United won three and Heart of Midlothian two.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Dundee United win or draw
- 56%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 74%
- Heart of Midlothian win or draw
- 70%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 74%
- 3+ goals
- 50%
- 4+ goals
- 28%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 54%
- No
- 46%
We expect about 1.2 goals from Dundee United and 1.5 from Heart of Midlothian. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (12%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 8. Next: 0–1 (10%), 1–2 (9%), 1–0 (8%), 0–2 (8%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 35% | 22% | 43% | Stats preview (goals model, no bookmaker prices) | #2061 | |
| 2 | 30% | 26% | 44% | Prices moved | #2165 |
Frozen at kick-off. Version 2 is the one that counts in our track record. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Dundee United: last 6
WDWWDL · 9 scored, 7 conceded
| 24 Oct | vs Aberdeen | 3–2 | W |
| 17 Oct | at ST Johnstone | 1–1 | D |
| 10 Oct | vs Hibernian | 1–0 | W |
| 19 Sep | at ST Mirren | 3–0 | W |
| 5 Sep | vs Falkirk | 1–1 | D |
| 2 Sep | at Motherwell | 0–3 | L |
Last 5 at home: WWDLD
Heart of Midlothian: last 6
WLLDWD · 10 scored, 11 conceded
| 25 Oct | at Motherwell | 2–0 | W |
| 22 Oct | at Trabzonspor UEFA Europa Conference League | 0–2 | L |
| 18 Oct | at Celtic | 1–7 | L |
| 15 Oct | vs FC Nordsjaelland UEFA Europa Conference League | 1–1 | D |
| 10 Oct | vs ST Mirren | 5–0 | W |
| 19 Sep | at Kilmarnock | 1–1 | D |
Last 5 away: WLLDL
Season stats
| Dundee United | Heart of Midlothian | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.40 | Goals scored per game | 2.20 |
| 1.40 | Goals conceded per game | 1.50 |
| 1.20 | Scored per game at home | 3.25 |
| 1.60 | Scored per game away | 1.50 |
| 50% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 80% |
| 40% | Both teams scored | 70% |
| 30% | Clean sheets | 30% |
| 30% | Failed to score | 0% |
League matches only, 10 games each.
Scottish Premiership table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Celtic | 10 | +19 | 27 | WWWLW |
| 2 | Rangers | 10 | +10 | 23 | WDWWW |
| 3 | Heart of Midlothian | 10 | +7 | 19 | WLWDL |
| 4 | Dundee United | 10 | +0 | 15 | WDWWD |
| 5 | Dundee | 10 | +2 | 14 | LDWWL |
| 6 | ST Mirren | 10 | -7 | 13 | WLLLL |
| 7 | Falkirk | 10 | +0 | 12 | WWLDW |
Match context
- Travel for Heart of Midlothian
- 59 km
- Rest days
- Dundee United 7Heart of Midlothian 6
- Matches in the last 14 days: Dundee United 1 · Heart of Midlothian 3
- Weather at kick-off
- 12°C · wind 3 km/h
- Rain expected
- Goals in this league
- Scottish Premiership average: 2.82 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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