St Johnstone vs Motherwell prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
Wide open: no clear favourite (St Johnstone 37%)
Goals call3+ goals 54% · bookies 54%
Bookmakers' prices with their margin removed; a stats preview does not adjust them with news.
The Verdict
The three readings converge on a tight contest where St Johnstone's home advantage is slightly favoured. While the market suggests a draw, the data points towards goals, particularly given Motherwell's defensive struggles away from home.
What our AI analysts say
2 of 3 think St Johnstone's chances are better than the bookmakers say.
The Coach
styles in the numbersSt Johnstone's home attack is potent, but Motherwell's defensive frailties are a major concern.
St Johnstone scored 1.60 per game at home. Motherwell conceded 1.80 goals per game overall.
St Johnstone: slightly underrated
More goalsLow The Dressing Room
the table and pressureBoth sides are under pressure, with St Johnstone sitting 8th and Motherwell 10th.
St Johnstone sits 8th with 12 points from 10 games. Motherwell is 10th with 8 points from 10 games.
The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongMotherwell's poor away form and high goals conceded rate suggest the market might be overestimating their chances.
Motherwell's last 5 away games saw them concede 13 goals. St Johnstone has conceded 1.50 goals per game.
St Johnstone: clearly underrated
More goalsMed Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
This is a data-only read
Our AI scouts have read the numbers for this match, not the team news.
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In short
St Johnstone are slight favourites at 37%, with Motherwell on 36% and the draw on 27%. St Johnstone are 8th and Motherwell 10th in the Scottish Premiership. In their last five league games, St Johnstone won one and Motherwell none.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- St Johnstone win or draw
- 64%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 73%
- Motherwell win or draw
- 63%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 77%
- 3+ goals
- 53%
- 4+ goals
- 31%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 57%
- No
- 43%
We expect about 1.4 goals from St Johnstone and 1.4 from Motherwell. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (12%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 8. Next: 1–0 (9%), 2–1 (8%), 0–1 (8%), 1–2 (8%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. The full analysis with team news can be requested on this page before kick-off. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 37% | 27% | 36% | Stats preview | #1713 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
St Johnstone: last 6
LDWDLW · 5 scored, 8 conceded
| 24 Oct | at Rangers | 0–4 | L |
| 17 Oct | vs Dundee Utd | 1–1 | D |
| 11 Oct | at Aberdeen | 1–0 | W |
| 19 Sep | vs Falkirk | 1–1 | D |
| 9 Sep | vs Celtic | 0–1 | L |
| 6 Sep | vs Hibernian | 2–1 | W |
Last 5 at home: DDLWW
Motherwell: last 6
LLLLLL · 3 scored, 14 conceded
| 25 Oct | vs Heart Of Midlothian | 0–2 | L |
| 17 Oct | at Kilmarnock | 2–3 | L |
| 11 Oct | vs Celtic | 0–2 | L |
| 19 Sep | at Dundee | 1–2 | L |
| 15 Sep | vs Aberdeen | 0–4 | L |
| 5 Sep | at Rangers | 0–1 | L |
Last 5 away: LLLDL
Season stats
| St Johnstone | Motherwell | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.10 | Goals scored per game | 1.10 |
| 1.50 | Goals conceded per game | 1.80 |
| 1.60 | Scored per game at home | 0.60 |
| 0.60 | Scored per game away | 1.60 |
| 40% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 60% |
| 60% | Both teams scored | 40% |
| 10% | Clean sheets | 20% |
| 30% | Failed to score | 50% |
League matches only, 10 games each.
Scottish Premiership table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Dundee | 10 | +2 | 14 | LDWWL |
| 6 | ST Mirren | 10 | -7 | 13 | WLLLL |
| 7 | Falkirk | 10 | +0 | 12 | WWLDW |
| 8 | St Johnstone | 10 | -4 | 12 | LDWDL |
| 9 | Aberdeen | 10 | -1 | 11 | LWLDW |
| 10 | Motherwell | 10 | -7 | 8 | LLLLL |
| 11 | Kilmarnock | 10 | -13 | 8 | LWLDW |
| 12 | Hibernian | 10 | -6 | 7 | LLLDL |
Head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: St Johnstone won 2, Motherwell 4, 0 draws; 2.7 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Aug 2025 | St Johnstone | 0–1 | Motherwell | League Cup |
| 26 Apr 2025 | Motherwell | 3–2 | St Johnstone | Premiership |
| 25 Jan 2025 | St Johnstone | 2–1 | Motherwell | Premiership |
| 18 Jan 2025 | St Johnstone | 1–0 | Motherwell | FA Cup |
| 9 Nov 2024 | Motherwell | 2–1 | St Johnstone | Premiership |
| 31 Aug 2024 | St Johnstone | 1–2 | Motherwell | Premiership |
Match context
- Travel for Motherwell
- 75 km
- Rest days
- St Johnstone 4Motherwell 3
- Matches in the last 14 days: St Johnstone 2 · Motherwell 2
- Weather at kick-off
- 11°C · wind 12 km/h
- Dry
- Goals in this league
- Scottish Premiership average: 2.82 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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