Kilmarnock vs St Johnstone prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
St Johnstone to win: 40%, about 2 in 5
Goals call3+ goals 56% · bookies 56%
Bookmakers' prices with their margin removed; a stats preview does not adjust them with news.
The Verdict
All three readings lean towards St Johnstone, in line with the published 40%, though the sceptic sees the away edge as modest given their poor away scoring. On goals, Kilmarnock's porous defence supports the over, but St Johnstone's low away output tempers it. A close away win with goals at both ends is the collective picture.
What our AI analysts say
1 of 2 think Kilmarnock's chances are better than the bookmakers say.
The Dressing Room
the table and pressurePressure sits on Kilmarnock at the bottom end
Kilmarnock sit 11th with 8 points from 10 games and six defeats, while St Johnstone are 8th on 12 points. Kilmarnock's home form of W D L L L adds to the strain, though both sides have had 7 days' rest with one game in 14.
The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongThe away lean looks fair but the goals line may be high
Kilmarnock's games go over 2.5 goals 60% of the time, yet St Johnstone's do so just 40%, so 56% for over 2.5 looks slightly generous.
Kilmarnock: slightly underrated
Fewer goalsLow Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
In short
St Johnstone are slight favourites at 40%, with Kilmarnock on 34% and the draw on 26%. Kilmarnock are 11th and St Johnstone 8th in the Scottish Premiership. In their last five league games, Kilmarnock won two and St Johnstone one.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Kilmarnock win or draw
- 60%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 74%
- St Johnstone win or draw
- 66%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 79%
- 3+ goals
- 56%
- 4+ goals
- 34%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 59%
- No
- 41%
We expect about 1.4 goals from Kilmarnock and 1.5 from St Johnstone. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (11%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 9. Next: 1–2 (9%), 0–1 (8%), 2–1 (8%), 1–0 (7%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 32% | 24% | 44% | Stats preview (goals model, no bookmaker prices) | #2062 | |
| 2 | 34% | 26% | 40% | Prices moved | #2164 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Kilmarnock: last 6
LWLDWD · 6 scored, 9 conceded
| 24 Oct | at Falkirk | 0–3 | L |
| 17 Oct | vs Motherwell | 3–2 | W |
| 10 Oct | at Rangers | 1–3 | L |
| 19 Sep | vs Heart Of Midlothian | 1–1 | D |
| 15 Sep | at Hibernian | 1–0 | W |
| 5 Sep | at Aberdeen | 0–0 | D |
Last 5 at home: WDLLL
St Johnstone: last 6
LDWDLW · 5 scored, 8 conceded
| 24 Oct | at Rangers | 0–4 | L |
| 17 Oct | vs Dundee Utd | 1–1 | D |
| 11 Oct | at Aberdeen | 1–0 | W |
| 19 Sep | vs Falkirk | 1–1 | D |
| 9 Sep | vs Celtic | 0–1 | L |
| 6 Sep | vs Hibernian | 2–1 | W |
Last 5 away: LWDLL
Season stats
| Kilmarnock | St Johnstone | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.00 | Goals scored per game | 1.10 |
| 2.30 | Goals conceded per game | 1.50 |
| 1.00 | Scored per game at home | 1.60 |
| 1.00 | Scored per game away | 0.60 |
| 60% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 40% |
| 50% | Both teams scored | 60% |
| 20% | Clean sheets | 10% |
| 40% | Failed to score | 30% |
League matches only, 10 games each.
Scottish Premiership table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Dundee | 10 | +2 | 14 | LDWWL |
| 6 | ST Mirren | 10 | -7 | 13 | WLLLL |
| 7 | Falkirk | 10 | +0 | 12 | WWLDW |
| 8 | St Johnstone | 10 | -4 | 12 | LDWDL |
| 9 | Aberdeen | 10 | -1 | 11 | LWLDW |
| 10 | Motherwell | 10 | -7 | 8 | LLLLL |
| 11 | Kilmarnock | 10 | -13 | 8 | LWLDW |
| 12 | Hibernian | 10 | -6 | 7 | LLLDL |
Match context
- Travel for St Johnstone
- 109 km
- Rest days
- Kilmarnock 7St Johnstone 7
- Matches in the last 14 days: Kilmarnock 1 · St Johnstone 1
- Weather at kick-off
- 12°C · wind 8 km/h
- Rain expected
- Goals in this league
- Scottish Premiership average: 2.82 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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