Falkirk vs Celtic prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
Celtic to win: 73%, about 3 in 4
Goals call3+ goals 70% · bookies 70%
Bookmakers' prices with their margin removed; a stats preview does not adjust them with news.
The Verdict
The collective analysis points strongly towards a Celtic victory, supported by their dominant league position and superior attacking metrics. While Falkirk's home record is mixed, the statistical edge held by Celtic in both scoring and defensive metrics is difficult to ignore.
What our AI analysts say
1 of 3 think Falkirk's chances are better than the bookmakers say. It does not make Falkirk favourites.
The Coach
styles in the numbersCeltic's superior attacking output is expected to overwhelm Falkirk's home defence.
Celtic averages 2.40 goals scored away, compared to Falkirk's 1.40 goals scored at home. Celtic concede only 0.60 goals per game, while Falkirk concedes 1.20 goals per game.
Falkirk: clearly underrated
More goalsMed The Dressing Room
the table and pressureCeltic's superior league standing and less fixture load give them a significant advantage.
Celtic sit 1st in the table with 27 points from 10 games. Falkirk is 7th with 12 points from 10 games. Both teams have 7 days rest, but Celtic has played 3 games in 14 days.
The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongThe market heavily favours Celtic, but Falkirk's home form suggests a more competitive fixture.
Falkirk's last 5 home games show 7 goals scored and 7 goals conceded.
Celtic: slightly overrated
Fewer goalsLow Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
In short
Celtic are clear favourites at 73%, with Falkirk on 11% and the draw on 16%. Falkirk are 7th and Celtic 1st in the Scottish Premiership. In their last five league games, Falkirk won three and Celtic four.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Falkirk win or draw
- 27%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 84%
- Celtic win or draw
- 89%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 88%
- 3+ goals
- 70%
- 4+ goals
- 49%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 58%
- No
- 42%
We expect about 1.0 goals from Falkirk and 2.7 from Celtic. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 0–2 (9%). Even the likeliest exact score happens less than 1 time in 10. Next: 1–2 (9%), 0–3 (8%), 1–3 (8%), 0–1 (7%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 21% | 24% | 55% | Stats preview (goals model, no bookmaker prices) | #1979 | |
| 2 | 11% | 16% | 73% | Prices moved | #2216 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Falkirk: last 6
WWLDWD · 10 scored, 6 conceded
| 24 Oct | vs Kilmarnock | 3–0 | W |
| 17 Oct | at Hibernian | 2–1 | W |
| 10 Oct | vs Dundee | 1–2 | L |
| 19 Sep | at ST Johnstone | 1–1 | D |
| 15 Sep | vs Heart Of Midlothian | 2–1 | W |
| 5 Sep | at Dundee Utd | 1–1 | D |
Last 5 at home: WLWLL
Celtic: last 6
WLWLWL · 13 scored, 9 conceded
| 25 Oct | at Hibernian | 2–1 | W |
| 22 Oct | vs Celta Vigo UEFA Europa League | 1–2 | L |
| 18 Oct | vs Heart Of Midlothian | 7–1 | W |
| 15 Oct | at Benfica UEFA Europa League | 1–4 | L |
| 11 Oct | at Motherwell | 2–0 | W |
| 20 Sep | vs Rangers | 0–1 | L |
Last 5 away: WLWWW
Season stats
| Falkirk | Celtic | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.20 | Goals scored per game | 2.50 |
| 1.20 | Goals conceded per game | 0.60 |
| 1.40 | Scored per game at home | 2.60 |
| 1.00 | Scored per game away | 2.40 |
| 60% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 60% |
| 70% | Both teams scored | 50% |
| 20% | Clean sheets | 40% |
| 20% | Failed to score | 10% |
League matches only, 10 games each.
Scottish Premiership table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Celtic | 10 | +19 | 27 | WWWLW |
| 2 | Rangers | 10 | +10 | 23 | WDWWW |
| 3 | Heart Of Midlothian | 10 | +7 | 19 | WLWDL |
| 4 | Dundee Utd | 10 | +0 | 15 | WDWWD |
| 5 | Dundee | 10 | +2 | 14 | LDWWL |
| 6 | ST Mirren | 10 | -7 | 13 | WLLLL |
| 7 | Falkirk | 10 | +0 | 12 | WWLDW |
| 8 | ST Johnstone | 10 | -4 | 12 | LDWDL |
| 9 | Aberdeen | 10 | -1 | 11 | LWLDW |
| 10 | Motherwell | 10 | -7 | 8 | LLLLL |
Match context
- Travel for Celtic
- 33 km
- Rest days
- Falkirk 7Celtic 7
- Matches in the last 14 days: Falkirk 1 · Celtic 3
- Weather at kick-off
- 8°C · wind 3 km/h
- Dry
- Goals in this league
- Scottish Premiership average: 2.82 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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