Sporting Kansas City vs Austin FC prediction
Full analysisTeam news, injuries and lineups read by our AI scouts, updated when the official lineups are out. How it works
KickoffHour pre-match forecast
Who wins?
Sporting Kansas to win: 41%, about 2 in 5
Goals call3+ goals 65% · bookies 65% · ✓ 3 goals
The Verdict
Our numbers moved away from the bookmakers' slightly by increasing the away probability, but we did not follow the full shift suggested by The Sceptic. The Dressing Room's view regarding Austin's motivation was incorporated into the final assessment.
What our AI analysts say
All three think Austin FC's chances are better than the bookmakers say.
The Coach
tactics and lineupsFull-strength Austin faces a depleted, makeshift Sporting KC lineup.
Sporting KC list 5 players out with Wolff, Johnsen and Davis (reported out, not confirmed by the club) doubtful, forcing a reshuffled XI around Cleveland (reported out, not confirmed by the club), Bassong (reported out, not confirmed by the club) and Afrifa (reported out, not confirmed by the club). The key duel is Austin's front three against a patched-up SKC back line.
Austin: clearly underrated
Med✓ Right The Dressing Room
mood and pressureEliminated, leaky SKC host a still-hopeful Austin side - away edge with goals likely.
Sporting KC are eliminated and have conceded a club-record 75 goals, with heavy recent defeats to Nashville and RSL. Austin FC sit just above them and a Sporting win could end Austin's playoff hopes, making the visitors' motivation high.
Austin: slightly underrated
Low✓ Right The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongSporting sit 15th with a -39 goal difference and a club-record 75 goals conceded; the all-time series trails 4-7-1. A SKC win could push Austin toward playoff elimination, while Austin are 14th and still fighting.
Austin: clearly underrated
Med✓ Right AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips. Who reads the game best
In short
Sporting Kansas City faces Austin FC with a severely depleted squad and a poor defensive record. While Sporting is eliminated from the postseason, Austin brings high motivation, leading to a tight contest where the away side is favored to win.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Sporting Kansas City win or draw
- 65%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 76%
- Austin FC win or draw
- 59%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 85%
- 3+ goals
- 65%
- 4+ goals
- 43%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 66%
- No
- 34%
We expect about 1.8 goals from Sporting Kansas City and 1.6 from Austin FC. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (10%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 10. Next: 2–1 (9%), 1–2 (8%), 2–2 (7%), 1–0 (6%).
How we got to these numbers
| Home | Draw | Away | 3+ goals | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bookmakers | 43% | 24% | 33% | 65% |
| Goals model | 35% | 25% | 40% | 64% |
| AI analysts | 33% | 25% | 42% | 65% |
| Our forecast | 41% | 24% | 35% | 65% |
Verdict: Our final probability for the away win (35%) is slightly higher than the market's (33%), reflecting the significant advantage of Austin's motivation and Sporting's injury crisis.
Our forecast starts from the bookmakers' prices and moves only by what the news justifies, capped at 8 percentage points per outcome. Methodology
Prediction history
Frozen at kick-off. Version 2 is the one that counts in our track record. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Sporting Kansas City: last 6
LLDLWL · 10 scored, 16 conceded
| 18 Oct | vs Real Salt Lake | 1–3 | L |
| 15 Oct | at Nashville SC | 0–4 | L |
| 11 Oct | vs Portland Timbers | 3–3 | D |
| 2 Oct | at Seattle Sounders | 1–2 | L |
| 27 Sep | at Houston Dynamo | 2–0 | W |
| 20 Sep | vs Philadelphia Union | 3–4 | L |
Last 5 at home: LDLWL
Austin FC: last 6
LLLDDW · 8 scored, 13 conceded
| 18 Oct | vs Vancouver Whitecaps | 1–2 | L |
| 15 Oct | at Los Angeles FC | 1–3 | L |
| 11 Oct | vs Nashville SC | 1–4 | L |
| 27 Sep | vs San Diego | 3–3 | D |
| 20 Sep | at FC Dallas | 0–0 | D |
| 13 Sep | at Vancouver Whitecaps | 2–1 | W |
Last 5 away: LDWWL
Season stats
| Sporting Kansas City | Austin FC | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.20 | Goals scored per game | 1.27 |
| 2.50 | Goals conceded per game | 1.87 |
| 1.47 | Scored per game at home | 1.40 |
| 0.93 | Scored per game away | 1.13 |
| 80% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 70% |
| 63% | Both teams scored | 70% |
| 3% | Clean sheets | 17% |
| 33% | Failed to score | 20% |
| 1.73 | Yellow cards per game | 1.83 |
League matches only, 30 games each.
When goals come
| Minutes | Sporting Kansas City | Austin FC |
|---|---|---|
| 0–15 min | ||
| 16–30 min | ||
| 31–45 min | ||
| 46–60 min | ||
| 61–75 min | ||
| 76–90 min |
MLS table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Portland Timbers | 31 | -4 | 37 | WDLDL |
| 12 | San Diego | 31 | -3 | 35 | DDDLD |
| 13 | Minnesota United FC | 31 | -8 | 35 | DWDDL |
| 14 | Austin FC | 31 | -17 | 34 | WLLLD |
| 15 | Sporting Kansas City | 31 | -40 | 22 | LLLDL |
Head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Sporting Kansas City won 3, Austin FC 3, 0 draws; 2.7 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 May 2026 | Austin FC | 1–2 | Sporting Kansas City | Major League Soccer |
| 14 Feb 2026 | Sporting Kansas City | 2–0 | Austin FC | Friendlies Clubs |
| 7 Sep 2025 | Sporting Kansas City | 1–2 | Austin FC | Major League Soccer |
| 23 Feb 2025 | Austin FC | 1–0 | Sporting Kansas City | Major League Soccer |
| 30 Jun 2024 | Sporting Kansas City | 2–0 | Austin FC | Major League Soccer |
| 19 May 2024 | Austin FC | 3–2 | Sporting Kansas City | Major League Soccer |
Team news: lineups Confirmed
Goalkeeper
- 30S. Cleveland
Defenders
- 8J. Davis
- 15Jansen Miller
- 28Wyatt Meyer
- 18E. Karić
Midfielders
- 11André Luiz
- 20K. Agyabeng
- 22Z. Bassong
- 7Capita
Forwards
- 19T. Calheira
- 17S. Afrifa
Substitutes (9)
- 93M. Suleymanov
- 99J. Reid
- 24R. Ramos
- 1J. Pulskamp
- 2I. James
- 23E. Bartlow
- 33O. Wolff
- 14C. Harris
- 16J. Bartlett
Goalkeeper
- 12D. Las
Defenders
- 3M. Desler
- 6Ilie Sánchez
- 29Guilherme Biro
Midfielders
- 30J. Rosales
- 38Ervin Torres
- 24Jorge Alastuey
- 17J. Gallagher
Forwards
- 10M. Uzuni
- 9B. Vázquez
- 11F. Torres
Substitutes (8)
- 21C. Ramirez
- 4B. Hines-Ike
- 14B. Šabović
- 1B. Stuver
- 5O. Svatok
- 77P. Płacheta
- 32M. Burton
- 35M. Đorđević
Official team sheets, updated ET.
Team news: injuries and suspensions
- OutO. BlorianChest
- OutDiego BorgesGroin
- OutL. JohnsenHamstring
Show 3 more
- OutM. MosqueraHamstring
- OutS. ReidHamstring
- OutJ. ReynoldsMuscle
- OutJ. BellAbdominal strain
- OutZ. KolmanicThigh
From our match data feed · updated ET.
Key facts
- Sporting Kansas City has set an unwanted club record by conceding 75 goals this season.[3]
- The team has suffered back-to-back losses in its most recent fixtures against Nashville SC and Real Salt Lake.[2]
Sources
- podcasts.apple.com – For the Glory KC - A Sporting KC Podcast - Apple Podcasts
- sportingkc.com – Five Things presented by Compass Minerals: Sporting remains home to face Austin FC | Oct. 24, 2026 - Sporting Kansas City (2026-10-24)
Match context
- Stadium
- Children's Mercy Park, Kansas City, Kansas
- 21,650 seats · grass
- Travel for Austin FC
- 1,023 km
- Rest days
- Sporting Kansas City 7Austin FC 7
- Matches in the last 14 days: Sporting Kansas City 2 · Austin FC 2
- Weather at kick-off
- 20°C · wind 9 km/h
- Dry
- Referee
- Ricardo Fierro
- 4.2 yellow cards per game and 0.27 penalties per game over 11 games — close to the MLS average (4.0 yellows).
- Coaches
- R. Wicky
- Sporting Kansas City, since Feb 2026
- D. Arnaud
- Austin FC, since Oct 2024
- Goals in this league
- MLS average: 3.25 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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