Red Bull New York vs Inter Miami CF prediction
Full analysisTeam news, injuries and lineups read by our AI scouts, updated when the official lineups are out. How it works
KickoffHour pre-match forecast
Who wins?
Inter Miami to win: 53%, about 1 in 2
Goals call3+ goals 75% · bookies 75% · ✗ 2 goals
The Verdict
Our numbers stay close to the bookmakers' because The Coach's view that the confirmed lineups confirm rather than change the class gap outweighs the small opposing nudges from The Dressing Room and The Sceptic. The Sceptic's view was not followed in full: it trimmed Miami by 3 points for Messi starting on the bench, but Miami still field Suárez, De Paul and Casemiro, so the larger shift was not warranted.
What our AI analysts say
1 of 3 think Inter Miami CF's chances are better than the bookmakers say.
The Coach
tactics and lineupsMiami's full-strength spine outweighs RBNY's young, rebuilding XI.
Miami start Suárez, De Paul and Casemiro, with Messi on the bench. Key duel: Miami's veteran midfield against RBNY's young engine room.
The Dressing Room
mood and pressureIn-form defending champs should outclass a struggling, rebuilding Red Bull side.
Bradley's first season has been frustrating amid pressure.
Inter Miami: slightly underrated
Low✗ Wrong The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongMiami strong even without starting Messi (reported out, not confirmed by the club), but RBNY's home desperation trims the edge slightly.
Away is priced 52.6% with over 2.5 at 75.3%; the model (54% away, 74% over) backs those prices. Miami won 3 of the last 5 H2H and the April meeting ended 2-2. The one wrinkle: Messi is listed on the bench.
Inter Miami: slightly overrated
Low AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips. Who reads the game best
In short
Inter Miami visit Sports Illustrated Stadium as defending champions in strong form, while Red Bull New York fight for a playoff spot after back-to-back losses. Miami start Suárez, De Paul and Casemiro, with Messi on the bench. Our numbers stay close to the market.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Red Bull New York win or draw
- 47%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 79%
- Inter Miami CF win or draw
- 74%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 90%
- 3+ goals
- 75%
- 4+ goals
- 55%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 72%
- No
- 28%
We expect about 1.6 goals from Red Bull New York and 2.3 from Inter Miami CF. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–2 (9%). Even the likeliest exact score happens less than 1 time in 10. Next: 1–1 (7%), 2–2 (7%), 1–3 (7%), 2–1 (6%).
How we got to these numbers
| Home | Draw | Away | 3+ goals | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bookmakers | 26% | 21% | 53% | 75% |
| Goals model | 25% | 21% | 54% | 74% |
| AI analysts | 25% | 21% | 54% | 74% |
| Our forecast | 26% | 21% | 53% | 75% |
Verdict: Our numbers stay at the market's 26/21/53 because the confirmed lineups support Miami's quality edge while RBNY's home desperation and playoff stakes offset part of it, and the analysts' opposing nudges largely cancel out.
Our forecast starts from the bookmakers' prices and moves only by what the news justifies, capped at 8 percentage points per outcome. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 26% | 21% | 53% | Official lineups | #1212 |
Frozen at kick-off. Version 1 is the one that counts in our track record. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Red Bull New York: last 6
LLWLWW · 7 scored, 8 conceded
| 17 Oct | vs Toronto FC | 0–2 | L |
| 14 Oct | at DC United | 1–2 | L |
| 10 Oct | vs San Diego | 4–1 | W |
| 30 Sep | vs St. Louis City | 0–3 | L |
| 18 Sep | at New York City FC | 1–0 | W |
| 12 Sep | at Columbus Crew | 1–0 | W |
Last 5 at home: LWLLD
Inter Miami CF: last 6
WWWLDW · 14 scored, 5 conceded
| 17 Oct | at Atlanta United FC | 3–1 | W |
| 14 Oct | vs New York City FC | 2–0 | W |
| 10 Oct | vs DC United | 4–0 | W |
| 27 Sep | at Columbus Crew | 1–2 | L |
| 20 Sep | vs San Diego | 2–2 | D |
| 17 Sep | vs Cruz Azul Campeones Cup | 2–0 | W |
Last 5 away: WLDDL
Season stats
| Red Bull New York | Inter Miami CF | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.30 | Goals scored per game | 2.43 |
| 1.87 | Goals conceded per game | 1.70 |
| 1.47 | Scored per game at home | 2.73 |
| 1.13 | Scored per game away | 2.13 |
| 57% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 77% |
| 60% | Both teams scored | 77% |
| 13% | Clean sheets | 20% |
| 30% | Failed to score | 7% |
| 2.03 | Yellow cards per game | 2.63 |
League matches only, 30 games each.
When goals come
| Minutes | Red Bull New York | Inter Miami CF |
|---|---|---|
| 0–15 min | ||
| 16–30 min | ||
| 31–45 min | ||
| 46–60 min | ||
| 61–75 min | ||
| 76–90 min |
MLS table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nashville SC | 31 | +43 | 70 | WDWWW |
| 2 | Inter Miami CF | 31 | +20 | 55 | LWWWL |
| 3 | New England Revolution | 31 | +9 | 55 | WWWLL |
| 4 | Chicago Fire | 31 | +9 | 51 | WLLWW |
| 5 | Charlotte | 31 | +7 | 47 | LDLWL |
| 6 | Philadelphia Union | 31 | +12 | 46 | LDWWW |
| 7 | FC Cincinnati | 31 | -7 | 42 | WWLLW |
| 8 | Orlando City SC | 31 | -12 | 42 | DWDWL |
| 9 | Red Bull New York | 31 | -15 | 39 | WLLWL |
| 10 | Columbus Crew | 31 | +1 | 38 | WWWLW |
| 11 | Toronto FC | 31 | -11 | 36 | LWDWL |
| 12 | New York City FC | 31 | +2 | 35 | DDLLD |
Head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Red Bull New York won 1, Inter Miami CF 4, 1 draw; 4.8 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Apr 2026 | Inter Miami CF | 2–2 | Red Bull New York | Major League Soccer |
| 19 Jul 2025 | Red Bull New York | 1–5 | Inter Miami CF | Major League Soccer |
| 3 May 2025 | Inter Miami CF | 4–1 | Red Bull New York | Major League Soccer |
| 4 May 2024 | Inter Miami CF | 6–2 | Red Bull New York | Major League Soccer |
| 23 Mar 2024 | Red Bull New York | 4–0 | Inter Miami CF | Major League Soccer |
| 26 Aug 2023 | Red Bull New York | 0–2 | Inter Miami CF | Major League Soccer |
Team news: lineups Confirmed
Goalkeeper
- 34E. Horvath
Defenders
- 12D. Nealis
- 26T. Parker
- 14J. Bazán
- 59D. Padelford
Midfielders
- 48R. Donkor
- 15A. Mehmeti
- 37M. Sofo
Forwards
- 7C. Cowell
- 16J. Hall
- 11J. Ruvalcaba
Substitutes (9)
- 13E. Choupo-Moting
- 10E. Forsberg
- 17C. Harper
- 60S. Kone
- 3J. Marshall-Rutty
- 77J. McCarthy
- 79R. Mosquera
- 8D. Ruíz
- 56M. Dos Santos
Goalkeeper
- 97D. St. Clair
Defenders
- 2G. Luján
- 5Casemiro
- 16Micael
- 3Reguilón
Midfielders
- 7R. De Paul
- 22D. Ayala
- 80M. Galarza
Forwards
- 11Riquelme Fillipi
- 9L. Suárez
- 19G. Berterame
Substitutes (9)
- 88A. Shaw
- 8T. Segovia
- 34R. Ríos Novo
- 56Daniel Pinter
- 4F. Mura
- 20S. Morales
- 10L. Messi
- 17I. Fray
- 42Y. Bright
Official team sheets, updated ET.
Team news: injuries and suspensions
- OutJ. CheKnee
- Susp.M. FalconSuspended
- OutT. AllendeKnee
- OutF. CaicedoLower-Body
Show 1 more
- OutM. SilvettiInjury
From our match data feed · updated ET.
Key facts
- Red Bull New York sit 10th with 36 points from 30 games and are fighting for a playoff place.[3][4]
- Inter Miami are 2nd with 55 points from 30 games and are the defending MLS champions.[3][4]
- Miami start Luis Suárez, Rodrigo De Paul and Casemiro, while Lionel Messi is named on the bench.[2]
- RBNY lean on young players, with 17-year-old Adri Mehmeti on six assists this season and Julian Hall a key figure.[4]
- Goalkeeper Ethan Horvath has made 103 saves, ninth in MLS.[3]
- This is the 14th all-time regular-season meeting, with the series tied 6-6-1; the April meeting ended 2-2.[1][3]
Sources
- newyorkredbulls.com – STARTING XI, pres. by OANDA: Red Bull New York Hosts Inter Miami CF at Sports Illustrated Stadium - Red Bull New York (2026-10-24)
- intermiamicf.com – Starting XI: Red Bull New York vs. Inter Miami CF - Inter Miami CF (2026-10-24)
- newyorkredbulls.com – MATCH PREVIEW, pres. by Toyota: Red Bull New York Host Inter Miami CF on Saturday Afternoon at Sports Illustrated Stadium - Red Bull New York (2026-10-24)
- mlssoccer.com – Adri Mehmeti's family dream: Red Bull New York to USMNT
Match context
- Stadium
- Sports Illustrated Stadium, Harrison, New Jersey
- 26,765 seats · grass
- Travel for Inter Miami CF
- 1,755 km
- Rest days
- Red Bull New York 6Inter Miami CF 6
- Matches in the last 14 days: Red Bull New York 3 · Inter Miami CF 3
- Weather at kick-off
- 17°C · wind 5 km/h
- Dry
- Referee
- Filip Dujic
- 4.1 yellow cards per game and 0.36 penalties per game over 14 games — close to the MLS average (4.0 yellows).
- Coaches
- Michael Bradley
- Red Bull New York, since Oct 2026
- Kily González
- Inter Miami CF, since Aug 2026
- Goals in this league
- MLS average: 3.25 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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