Philadelphia Union vs New England Revolution prediction
Full analysisTeam news, injuries and lineups read by our AI scouts, updated when the official lineups are out. How it works
KickoffHour pre-match forecast
Who wins?
Philadelphia Union to win: 63%, about 3 in 5
Goals call3+ goals 71% · bookies 70% · ✓ 3 goals
The Verdict
Our home win number moved two points below the bookmakers' and the draw ticked up slightly, partly following The Sceptic's view that New England are underrated, with its 7-point shift larger than The Dressing Room's 3 points in the opposite direction. The Coach's view was not followed because its model-based home estimate of 48% sat well below even our trimmed figure, yet we still kept Philadelphia ahead given the unbeaten run and home record.
What our AI analysts say
1 of 3 think New England Revolution's chances are better than the bookmakers say. It does not make New England Revolution favourites.
The Coach
tactics and lineupsUnion's depth holds up at home; Revs' doubts tip the balance
Union are without Cavan Sullivan (reported out, not confirmed by the club) (ankle) and Bueno (a doubt) (hamstring), with Quinn Sullivan (reported out, not confirmed by the club) expected to deputise and Kai Wagner (reported out, not confirmed by the club) back to strengthen the defence. New England miss Harrison and Yussuf, while Campana, Fofana and Sands are doubtful.
The Dressing Room
mood and pressurePhiladelphia Union's historic unbeaten run and home advantage give them the edge.
Philadelphia Union is 6th in the East with 46 points, boasting a club-record 15-match unbeaten streak. New England is 3rd with 52 points and is looking to move into second place.
Philadelphia Union: slightly overrated
Low The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongThis match is likely to be a high-scoring affair between two competitive playoff contenders.
New England Revolution is 3rd with 52 points. The league has averaged 3.25 goals per match this season.
New England Revolution: clearly underrated
Med✓ Right AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips. Who reads the game best
In short
Philadelphia Union, 6th with 46 points, host 3rd-placed New England Revolution with a likely first-round playoff pairing at stake. A Union win clinches a playoff berth, while New England could climb to second with a win and a Miami loss. Philadelphia carry a club-record 15-match unbeaten run, but New England have won two straight.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Philadelphia Union win or draw
- 83%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 80%
- New England Revolution win or draw
- 37%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 88%
- 3+ goals
- 70%
- 4+ goals
- 49%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 64%
- No
- 36%
We expect about 2.4 goals from Philadelphia Union and 1.2 from New England Revolution. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 2–1 (9%). Even the likeliest exact score happens less than 1 time in 10. Next: 1–1 (8%), 2–0 (8%), 3–1 (8%), 1–0 (6%).
How we got to these numbers
| Home | Draw | Away | 3+ goals | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bookmakers | 66% | 19% | 16% | 70% |
| Goals model | 48% | 24% | 28% | 65% |
| AI analysts | 49% | 24% | 27% | 68% |
| Our forecast | 63% | 20% | 17% | 71% |
Verdict: Our home win sits slightly below the market because the statistical model sees a smaller gap between the sides, and New England's strong position and two straight wins offset Philadelphia's unbeaten run and home record.
Our forecast starts from the bookmakers' prices and moves only by what the news justifies, capped at 8 percentage points per outcome. Methodology
Prediction history
Frozen at kick-off. Version 2 is the one that counts in our track record. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Philadelphia Union: last 6
DWWWWW · 20 scored, 9 conceded
| 17 Oct | vs Charlotte | 2–2 | D |
| 15 Oct | at Chicago Fire | 3–1 | W |
| 10 Oct | vs Real Salt Lake | 2–1 | W |
| 26 Sep | vs Orlando City SC | 4–2 | W |
| 20 Sep | at Sporting Kansas City | 4–3 | W |
| 14 Sep | at San Diego | 5–0 | W |
Last 5 at home: DWWWW
New England Revolution: last 6
WWLLWW · 10 scored, 11 conceded
| 17 Oct | vs Chicago Fire | 1–0 | W |
| 14 Oct | at FC Cincinnati | 3–2 | W |
| 10 Oct | vs Seattle Sounders | 0–3 | L |
| 27 Sep | at Real Salt Lake | 0–3 | L |
| 19 Sep | vs Orlando City SC | 4–2 | W |
| 13 Sep | at Chicago Fire | 2–1 | W |
Last 5 away: WLWWL
Season stats
| Philadelphia Union | New England Revolution | |
|---|---|---|
| 2.03 | Goals scored per game | 1.63 |
| 1.60 | Goals conceded per game | 1.37 |
| 1.80 | Scored per game at home | 1.80 |
| 2.27 | Scored per game away | 1.47 |
| 70% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 70% |
| 70% | Both teams scored | 60% |
| 20% | Clean sheets | 20% |
| 17% | Failed to score | 23% |
| 2.33 | Yellow cards per game | 1.77 |
League matches only, 30 games each.
When goals come
| Minutes | Philadelphia Union | New England Revolution |
|---|---|---|
| 0–15 min | ||
| 16–30 min | ||
| 31–45 min | ||
| 46–60 min | ||
| 61–75 min | ||
| 76–90 min |
MLS table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nashville SC | 31 | +43 | 70 | WDWWW |
| 2 | Inter Miami | 31 | +20 | 55 | LWWWL |
| 3 | New England Revolution | 31 | +9 | 55 | WWWLL |
| 4 | Chicago Fire | 31 | +9 | 51 | WLLWW |
| 5 | Charlotte | 31 | +7 | 47 | LDLWL |
| 6 | Philadelphia Union | 31 | +12 | 46 | LDWWW |
| 7 | FC Cincinnati | 31 | -7 | 42 | WWLLW |
| 8 | Orlando City SC | 31 | -12 | 42 | DWDWL |
| 9 | New York Red Bulls | 31 | -15 | 39 | WLLWL |
Head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Philadelphia Union won 4, New England Revolution 1, 1 draw; 2.5 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 May 2026 | New England Revolution | 2–1 | Philadelphia Union | Major League Soccer |
| 20 Sep 2025 | Philadelphia Union | 1–0 | New England Revolution | Major League Soccer |
| 9 Mar 2025 | New England Revolution | 0–2 | Philadelphia Union | Major League Soccer |
| 17 Jul 2024 | Philadelphia Union | 5–1 | New England Revolution | Major League Soccer |
| 18 May 2024 | New England Revolution | 0–3 | Philadelphia Union | Major League Soccer |
| 14 Feb 2024 | New England Revolution | 0–0 | Philadelphia Union | Friendlies Clubs |
Team news: lineups Confirmed
Goalkeeper
- 18A. Blake
Defenders
- 39F. Westfield
- 44Neil Pierre
- 26N. Harriel
- 27K. Wagner
Midfielders
- 33Q. Sullivan
- 21D. Jean-Jacques
- 4J. Lukić
- 19I. Vassilev
Forwards
- 10M. Iloski
- 9B. Damiani
Substitutes (9)
- 23E. Alladoh
- 28A. Anello
- 11A. Bedoya
- 16B. Bender
- 51M. Jakupovic
- 14J. Rafanello
- 76A. Rick
- 5J. Sery Larsen
- 47K. LeBlanc
Goalkeeper
- 30M. Turner
Defenders
- 12I. Feingold
- 22E. Kohler
- 66J. Wynder
- 25P. Miller
Midfielders
- 10Carles Gil
- 8M. Polster
- 14J. Yueill
Forwards
- 41L. Langoni
- 99D. Turgeman
- 16D. Gazdag
Substitutes (9)
- 77D. Fagundez
- 2M. Fofana
- 27W. Harris
- 33D. Parisian
- 65J. Siqueira
- 7G. Yow
- 15C. Baker
- 21B. Raines
- 4T. Beason
Official team sheets, updated ET.
Team news: injuries and suspensions
- OutJ. BuenoHamstring
- OutC. SullivanAnkle
- OutL. CampanaHamstring
- OutJ. HarrisonLower-Body
- OutA. YusufMuscle
From our match data feed · updated ET.
Key facts
- Philadelphia Union sit 6th with 46 points from 30 games and have won four of their last five matches, drawing the most recent one 2-2 against Charlotte.[4]
- New England Revolution are 3rd with 52 points, have won two straight and five of their last seven.[1][3][4]
- New England have been unbeaten against Eastern Conference opponents since a 15 August loss at Toronto.[4]
- A Union win would clinch a playoff berth, their tenth, and could lift them to 4th if Charlotte and Chicago lose.[2]
- If the playoffs started now, New England as 3rd seed would host Philadelphia as 6th, making this a likely first-round preview.[2][5]
- Quinn Sullivan is expected to start for the injured Cavan Sullivan, having just returned from ACL surgery and still regaining form.[2][3]
Sources
- fox29.com – Philadelphia Union look to clinch playoff berth, extend historic 15-match unbeaten run against New England - FOX 29 Philadelphia (2026-10-24)
- metrophiladelphia.com – Philadelphia Union vs. New England Revolution: Playoff preview as Philly eyes top-4 finish - Metro Philadelphia (2026-10-24)
- phillysoccerpage.net – Match Preview: Philadelphia Union vs New England Revolution - The Philly Soccer Page (2026-10-24)
- fieldlevelmedia.com – Union strive to continue sizzling run in clash vs. Revolution - Field Level Media (2026-10-23)
- theblazingmusket.com – Know Thy Enemy: Revs at Union Playoff Kids Edition - The Blazing Musket (2026-10-24)
Match context
- Stadium
- Subaru Park, Chester, Pennsylvania
- 19,778 seats · grass
- Travel for New England Revolution
- 424 km
- Rest days
- Philadelphia Union 7New England Revolution 7
- Matches in the last 14 days: Philadelphia Union 2 · New England Revolution 2
- Weather at kick-off
- 13°C · wind 5 km/h
- Dry
- Referee
- Malik Badawi
- 4.7 yellow cards per game and 0.29 penalties per game over 14 games — above the MLS average (4.0 yellows).
- Coaches
- Ryan Richter
- Philadelphia Union, since Jul 2026
- Marko Mitrović
- New England Revolution
- Goals in this league
- MLS average: 3.25 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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