Orlando City SC vs New York City FC prediction
Full analysisTeam news, injuries and lineups read by our AI scouts, updated when the official lineups are out. How it works
KickoffHour pre-match forecast
Who wins?
Orlando to win: 47%, about 1 in 2
Goals call3+ goals 68% · bookies 68% · ✓ 4 goals
The Verdict
Our numbers stay close to the bookmakers' because the shifts from The Coach and The Dressing Room toward Orlando are offset by The Sceptic's draw adjustment. The Sceptic's call for a bigger draw probability was not fully followed, since Orlando's home form and NYCFC's absences still point to a narrow home edge.
What our AI analysts say
2 of 3 think Orlando City SC's chances are better than the bookmakers say. The Sceptic thinks a draw is underrated.
The Coach
tactics and lineupsFull-strength Orlando attack edges a depleted NYCFC midfield.
Orlando start Griezmann and Martín Ojeda; Vinícius Nogueira is named despite an injury flag. NYCFC miss Moralez and Parks (a doubt), with Alonso Martínez (reported out, not confirmed by the club) returning from an ACL tear straight into the XI.
Orlando: slightly underrated
Low✗ Wrong The Dressing Room
mood and pressureOrlando City's strong home form and recent scoring power give them the edge over a struggling NYCFC side.
Orlando City SC is currently in a five-game home winning streak and has scored 20 goals in its last seven MLS matches. NYCFC is winless in five games and is two points off the playoff line. The head-to-head history is challenging for Orlando, who has not beaten NYCFC since 2022.
Orlando: slightly underrated
Low✗ Wrong The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongThe match is likely to be high-scoring and extremely competitive.
Orlando City SC has been in a five-game home winning streak. NYCFC leads the all-time series 12-7-10. Both teams are fighting for playoff seeding with four matches remaining.
AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips. Who reads the game best
In short
Orlando City host NYCFC on a five-game home winning streak, with the home side 7th on 41 points and the visitors 12th, two points off the playoff line. NYCFC are winless in five but have not lost the head-to-head recently, beating Orlando 5-0 earlier this season. Both teams are missing several players, with NYCFC particularly short in midfield.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Orlando City SC win or draw
- 71%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 76%
- New York City FC win or draw
- 54%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 86%
- 3+ goals
- 68%
- 4+ goals
- 46%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 67%
- No
- 33%
We expect about 1.9 goals from Orlando City SC and 1.5 from New York City FC. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (9%). Even the likeliest exact score happens less than 1 time in 10. Next: 2–1 (9%), 1–2 (7%), 2–2 (7%), 1–0 (6%).
How we got to these numbers
| Home | Draw | Away | 3+ goals | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bookmakers | 47% | 24% | 30% | 68% |
| Goals model | 39% | 23% | 37% | 70% |
| AI analysts | 41% | 26% | 33% | 71% |
| Our forecast | 46% | 24% | 29% | 68% |
Verdict: Our numbers stay close to the market because Orlando's strong home form and scoring run are partly offset by their long winless run against NYCFC and Martínez's return for the visitors.
Our forecast starts from the bookmakers' prices and moves only by what the news justifies, capped at 8 percentage points per outcome. Methodology
Prediction history
Frozen at kick-off. Version 2 is the one that counts in our track record. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Orlando City SC: last 6
WDWLLL · 15 scored, 16 conceded
| 17 Oct | vs DC United | 4–1 | W |
| 14 Oct | at Toronto FC | 3–3 | D |
| 10 Oct | vs Columbus Crew | 3–2 | W |
| 26 Sep | at Philadelphia Union | 2–4 | L |
| 19 Sep | at New England Revolution | 2–4 | L |
| 16 Sep | at Columbus Crew US Open Cup | 1–2 | L |
Last 5 at home: WWWWW
New York City FC: last 6
DLLDLW · 6 scored, 8 conceded
| 17 Oct | vs Los Angeles FC | 1–1 | D |
| 14 Oct | at Inter Miami | 0–2 | L |
| 10 Oct | at Chicago Fire | 1–2 | L |
| 26 Sep | at Atlanta United FC | 2–2 | D |
| 18 Sep | vs New York Red Bulls | 0–1 | L |
| 13 Sep | at Real Salt Lake | 2–0 | W |
Last 5 away: LLDWD
Season stats
| Orlando City SC | New York City FC | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.93 | Goals scored per game | 1.43 |
| 2.33 | Goals conceded per game | 1.37 |
| 2.00 | Scored per game at home | 1.80 |
| 1.87 | Scored per game away | 1.07 |
| 77% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 50% |
| 70% | Both teams scored | 67% |
| 13% | Clean sheets | 17% |
| 17% | Failed to score | 20% |
| 2.20 | Yellow cards per game | 1.67 |
League matches only, 30 games each.
When goals come
| Minutes | Orlando City SC | New York City FC |
|---|---|---|
| 0–15 min | ||
| 16–30 min | ||
| 31–45 min | ||
| 46–60 min | ||
| 61–75 min | ||
| 76–90 min |
MLS table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Charlotte | 31 | +7 | 47 | LDLWL |
| 6 | Philadelphia Union | 31 | +12 | 46 | LDWWW |
| 7 | FC Cincinnati | 31 | -7 | 42 | WWLLW |
| 8 | Orlando City SC | 31 | -12 | 42 | DWDWL |
| 9 | New York Red Bulls | 31 | -15 | 39 | WLLWL |
| 10 | Columbus Crew | 31 | +1 | 38 | WWWLW |
| 11 | Toronto FC | 31 | -11 | 36 | LWDWL |
| 12 | New York City FC | 31 | +2 | 35 | DDLLD |
| 13 | DC United | 31 | -17 | 33 | LLLWL |
| 14 | Atlanta United FC | 31 | -15 | 30 | LLWLD |
| 15 | CF Montreal | 31 | -26 | 25 | LDLLW |
Head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Orlando City SC won 0, New York City FC 5, 1 draw; 3.5 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 Mar 2026 | New York City FC | 5–0 | Orlando City SC | Major League Soccer |
| 17 Jul 2025 | Orlando City SC | 1–2 | New York City FC | Major League Soccer |
| 9 Mar 2025 | New York City FC | 2–1 | Orlando City SC | Major League Soccer |
| 20 Jul 2024 | Orlando City SC | 1–1 | New York City FC | Major League Soccer |
| 28 Jun 2024 | New York City FC | 4–2 | Orlando City SC | Major League Soccer |
| 20 Sep 2023 | New York City FC | 2–0 | Orlando City SC | Major League Soccer |
Team news: lineups Confirmed
Goalkeeper
- 71M. Crépeau
Defenders
- 77I. Angulo
- 4D. Brekalo
- 57Iago
- 27Vinícius Nogueira
Midfielders
- 8B. Ojeda
- 16W. Cartagena
- 22Justin Ellis
- 20E. Atuesta
- 10M. Ojeda
Forward
- 7A. Griezmann
Substitutes (9)
- 9D. Dike
- 35Joran Gerbet
- 21N. Miller
- 12Javier Otero
- 87Marco Pasalic
- 44Bernardo Rhein Goncalves
- 23Harvey Sarajian
- 19Z. Taifi
- 3Adrián Marín
Goalkeeper
- 49M. Freese
Defenders
- 24T. Gray
- 13Thiago Martins
- 6J. Sands
- 22K. O'Toole
Midfielders
- 21A. O'Neill
- 8A. Perea
- 26A. Ojeda
- 7N. Fernández Mercau
- 17H. Wolf
Forward
- 16A. Martínez
Substitutes (9)
- 20Luighi Hanri
- 3M. Miazga
- 34Raul Gustavo
- 30T. Romero
- 32J. Shore
- 11Talles Magno
- 9B. Traoré
- 88M. Jones
- 2Nico Cavallo
Official team sheets, updated ET.
Team news: injuries and suspensions
- Susp.Luis OtavioSuspended
- OutG. DorseyBack
- OutR. JanssonFoot
Show 1 more
- OutT. SpicerFoot
- OutD. BaieraKnee
- OutA. FarnosLeg
- OutM. MoralezKnee
Show 2 more
- OutK. ParksLeg
- OutK. TrewinAnkle
From our match data feed · updated ET.
Key facts
- Orlando City take a five-game home winning streak into this match.[3]
- Orlando have scored multiple goals in seven straight MLS matches, with 20 goals in that span.[1]
- NYCFC are winless in five and have one win in their last 13 MLS matches.[2]
- NYCFC sit 12th on 34 points, two points off the playoff line with four matches left.[2]
- Orlando are 7th on 41 points with a cushion above the wild-card line and aim for a higher seed.[1]
- Fernández Mercau leads NYCFC's attack with 15 goals and 9 assists.[1]
- Alonso Martínez has returned after an ACL tear, though his match fitness is uncertain.[1]
Sources
- orlandocitysc.com – The Road Ahead, driven by Audi: Orlando City SC vs New York City FC - Orlando City (2026-10-24)
- frontrowsoccer.com – SHRINKING PLAYOFF WINDOW: NYCFC in another must-win situation at Orlando - Front Row Soccer (2026-10-23)
- foxsports.com – Orlando City hosts New York City FC on 5-game home winning streak - FOX Sports (2026-10-23)
Match context
- Stadium
- Inter&Co Stadium, Orlando, Florida
- 25,527 seats · grass
- Travel for New York City FC
- 1,511 km
- Rest days
- Orlando City SC 7New York City FC 7
- Matches in the last 14 days: Orlando City SC 2 · New York City FC 2
- Weather at kick-off
- 21°C · wind 12 km/h
- Dry
- Referee
- Elijio Arreguin
- 4.2 yellow cards per game and 0.27 penalties per game over 11 games — close to the MLS average (4.0 yellows).
- Coaches
- M. Perelman
- Orlando City SC, since Oct 2026
- P. Jansen
- New York City FC, since Jan 2025
- Goals in this league
- MLS average: 3.25 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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