Portland Timbers vs Charlotte FC prediction
Full analysisTeam news, injuries and lineups read by our AI scouts, updated when the official lineups are out. How it works
KickoffHour pre-match forecast
Who wins?
Portland Timbers to win: 46%, about 1 in 2
Goals call3+ goals 77% · bookies 71% · ✓ 5 goals
The Verdict
Our away number moves three points above the bookmakers' to 31 per cent, driven by Portland's winless streak, 56 goals conceded and Charlotte's clinch scenario, while home and draw stay close to the market. The Sceptic's view was not followed because its 11-point shift goes further than the evidence supports, given Portland's strong home record and Charlotte's modest away record.
What our AI analysts say
All three think Charlotte FC's chances are better than the bookmakers say.
The Coach
tactics and lineupsFull-strength Charlotte with a clinch on the line edges a shaky Portland defense.
Charlotte start Toklomati (13 goals, club single-season record) behind Biel and Abada. Portland counter with Velde (8G+9A), Da Costa and Lassiter, but GK Pantemis has conceded a career-high 56 with only 2 clean sheets. Key duel: Charlotte's Westwood-Diani double pivot vs Da Costa's creativity.
Charlotte: slightly underrated
More goalsLow✗ Wrong The Dressing Room
mood and pressureCharlotte FC's strong standing and motivation give them the edge in this high-stakes encounter.
Portland Timbers are currently winless in seven matches and are fighting for a playoff spot from 11th place. Charlotte FC sits in 5th place in the Eastern Conference and can clinch the playoffs with a win or draw. The Timbers have conceded 56 goals this season, while Charlotte recently secured a draw against Philadelphia Union.
Charlotte: clearly underrated
Fewer goalsMed✗ Wrong The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongPortland's recent defensive struggles make them vulnerable against a strong Charlotte side.
Charlotte is in fifth place and can clinch the playoffs with a result.
Charlotte: strongly underrated
More goalsHigh✗ Wrong AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips. Who reads the game best
In short
Portland sit 11th in the Western Conference, winless in seven and fighting for a playoff spot, while fifth-placed Charlotte can clinch a postseason berth with a result. Portland have conceded 56 goals, among the most in MLS, and Charlotte arrive with record-setting scorer Toklomati. Our numbers lean slightly away from the market towards Charlotte.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Portland Timbers win or draw
- 69%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 77%
- Charlotte FC win or draw
- 53%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 91%
- 3+ goals
- 77%
- 4+ goals
- 57%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 75%
- No
- 25%
We expect about 2.2 goals from Portland Timbers and 1.8 from Charlotte FC. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 2–1 (8%). Even the likeliest exact score happens less than 1 time in 10. Next: 2–2 (7%), 1–1 (7%), 1–2 (6%), 3–1 (6%).
How we got to these numbers
| Home | Draw | Away | 3+ goals | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bookmakers | 49% | 23% | 28% | 71% |
| Goals model | 39% | 24% | 38% | 68% |
| AI analysts | 36% | 24% | 40% | 81% |
| Our forecast | 47% | 23% | 31% | 77% |
Verdict: Our away probability rises slightly above the market because Portland's winless run and league-high defensive numbers meet a Charlotte side with a clear incentive to take a result. Portland's solid home record this season keeps the adjustment modest rather than large.
Our forecast starts from the bookmakers' prices and moves only by what the news justifies, capped at 8 percentage points per outcome. Methodology
Prediction history
Frozen at kick-off. Version 2 is the one that counts in our track record. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Portland Timbers: last 6
DLDLLL · 5 scored, 11 conceded
| 18 Oct | vs Colorado Rapids | 0–0 | D |
| 15 Oct | at Los Angeles Galaxy | 0–2 | L |
| 11 Oct | at Sporting Kansas City | 3–3 | D |
| 27 Sep | at San Jose Earthquakes | 1–3 | L |
| 20 Sep | vs Atlanta United FC | 0–1 | L |
| 13 Sep | at FC Dallas | 1–2 | L |
Last 5 at home: DLDWL
Charlotte FC: last 6
DLWLWD · 11 scored, 12 conceded
| 17 Oct | at Philadelphia Union | 2–2 | D |
| 14 Oct | at Columbus Crew | 1–3 | L |
| 10 Oct | vs FC Dallas | 3–2 | W |
| 26 Sep | vs Chicago Fire | 0–1 | L |
| 19 Sep | at DC United | 2–1 | W |
| 12 Sep | at FC Cincinnati | 3–3 | D |
Last 5 away: DLWDW
Season stats
| Portland Timbers | Charlotte FC | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.70 | Goals scored per game | 1.77 |
| 1.87 | Goals conceded per game | 1.50 |
| 2.07 | Scored per game at home | 1.93 |
| 1.33 | Scored per game away | 1.60 |
| 70% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 70% |
| 73% | Both teams scored | 70% |
| 7% | Clean sheets | 17% |
| 23% | Failed to score | 20% |
| 1.63 | Yellow cards per game | 2.10 |
League matches only, 30 games each.
When goals come
| Minutes | Portland Timbers | Charlotte FC |
|---|---|---|
| 0–15 min | ||
| 16–30 min | ||
| 31–45 min | ||
| 46–60 min | ||
| 61–75 min | ||
| 76–90 min |
MLS table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Colorado Rapids | 31 | +1 | 42 | WDDDL |
| 9 | Los Angeles Galaxy | 31 | -9 | 40 | DWLWW |
| 10 | Real Salt Lake | 31 | +0 | 39 | WWDLW |
| 11 | Portland Timbers | 31 | -4 | 37 | WDLDL |
| 12 | San Diego | 31 | -3 | 35 | DDDLD |
| 13 | Minnesota United FC | 31 | -8 | 35 | DWDDL |
| 14 | Austin | 31 | -17 | 34 | WLLLD |
| … | |||||
| 2 | Inter Miami | 31 | +20 | 55 | LWWWL |
| 3 | New England Revolution | 31 | +9 | 55 | WWWLL |
| 4 | Chicago Fire | 31 | +9 | 51 | WLLWW |
| 5 | Charlotte FC | 31 | +7 | 47 | LDLWL |
| 6 | Philadelphia Union | 31 | +12 | 46 | LDWWW |
| 7 | FC Cincinnati | 31 | -7 | 42 | WWLLW |
| 8 | Orlando City SC | 31 | -12 | 42 | DWDWL |
Head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Portland Timbers won 0, Charlotte FC 2, 0 draws; 2.0 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Feb 2025 | Charlotte FC | 2–0 | Portland Timbers | Friendlies Clubs |
| 4 May 2024 | Charlotte FC | 2–0 | Portland Timbers | Major League Soccer |
Team news: lineups Confirmed
Goalkeeper
- 41J. Pantemis
Defenders
- 12R. Hernández
- 2J. Waterman
- 4K. Miller
- 27J. Fory
Midfielders
- 73Eric Izoita
- 30J. Caicedo
- 10David Pereira da Costa
Forwards
- 7A. Lassiter
- 14V. Janssen
- 99K. Velde
Substitutes (9)
- 21D. Chará
- 22O. Fernandez
- 28A. Aravena
- 17C. Bassett
- 15E. Miller
- 80J. Ortiz
- 23Ian Smith
- 26H. Sulte
- 20F. Surman
Goalkeeper
- 1K. Kahlina
Defenders
- 14N. Byrne
- 44M. Agyemang
- 22H. Kessler
- 23D. Schnegg
Midfielders
- 8A. Westwood
- 28D. Diani
- 37R. Aloko
- 16Pep Biel
- 11L. Abada
Forward
- 9I. Toklomati Giorno
Substitutes (9)
- 25Tyger Smalls
- 15H. Toffolo
- 4A. Privett
- 21T. Miller
- 17L. de la Torre
- 71N. Richmond
- 20B. Coulibaly
- 83H. Mbongue
- 39J. Neeley
Official team sheets, updated ET.
Team news: injuries and suspensions
- OutA. BonetigShoulder
- OutB. ByeLeg
- OutZ. McGrawBack
Show 2 more
- OutJ. MosqueraFoot
- DoubtAntonyKnee
- OutN. BerchimasFoot
- OutB. BronicoGroin
- OutW. ClearyIllness
Show 3 more
- OutA. GoodwinFoot
- OutA. JohnShoulder
- DoubtA. DoucoureNot available
From our match data feed · updated ET.
Key facts
- Portland are 11th in the Western Conference with four games left, five points behind Colorado in the race for a playoff place.[2]
- Portland are winless in their last seven matches and drew 0-0 at home to Colorado Rapids in their most recent game.[2]
- Portland have conceded 56 goals, tied for the second-most in the West, and goalkeeper James Pantemis has kept only two clean sheets this season.[2]
- Charlotte are fifth in the Eastern Conference and can clinch a playoff berth with a win or draw in this match.[2]
- Charlotte drew 2-2 at Philadelphia Union in their last match, ending the Union's eight-match winning run.[2]
- Charlotte's Toklomati scored his 13th league goal of the season against Philadelphia, a club single-season MLS record.[2]
- This is the final match of a three-game road stretch and Charlotte's longest road trip of the season, with a late-night kickoff locally.[2]
- Portland's Kristoffer Velde leads the team with 17 goal contributions, eight goals and nine assists.[2]
Sources
- timbers.com – Matchday | Timbers set for battle with Charlotte FC Saturday at Providence Park - Portland Timbers (2026-10-24)
- charlottefootballclub.com – Toppling the Timbers | Materials of the Match: Charlotte FC at Portland Timbers - Charlotte FC (2026-10-23)
Match context
- Stadium
- Providence Park, Portland, Oregon
- 25,518 seats · artificial turf
- Travel for Charlotte FC
- 3,677 km
- -3 h time zone
- Rest days
- Portland Timbers 7Charlotte FC 7
- Matches in the last 14 days: Portland Timbers 2 · Charlotte FC 2
- Weather at kick-off
- 10°C · wind 6 km/h
- Dry
- Referee
- Rosendo Mendoza
- 4.4 yellow cards per game and 0.31 penalties per game over 16 games — above the MLS average (4.0 yellows).
- Coaches
- Martí Cifuentes
- Portland Timbers, since Jul 2026
- D. Smith
- Charlotte FC, since Feb 2024
- Goals in this league
- MLS average: 3.25 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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