D.C. United vs FC Cincinnati prediction
Full analysisTeam news, injuries and lineups read by our AI scouts, updated when the official lineups are out. How it works
KickoffHour pre-match forecast
Who wins?
Cincinnati to win: 41%, about 2 in 5
Goals call3+ goals 71% · bookies 72% · ✗ 2 goals
The Verdict
Our numbers stay close to the bookmakers', moving only one point from away to home, because Cincinnati's first-leg win and playoff urgency balance their poor road record. The Sceptic's 4-point shift toward D.C. was not followed, as it is the largest suggested move but underweights Cincinnati's morale edge and D.C.'s four defeats in five.
What our AI analysts say
2 of 3 think a draw is underrated. The Sceptic thinks D.C. United are underrated.
The Coach
tactics and lineupsFull-strength squads on both sides; tight rematch leans narrowly to the hosts.
D.C. Celentano (2 clean sheets in 25 apps) faces a D.C. side dangerous in transition.
The Dressing Room
mood and pressureCincinnati's playoff urgency and fresh win edge a slumping D.C. side at Audi Field
D.C. have lost four of their last five and sit 13th with a -15 goal difference. Cincinnati are 8th, three points above the playoff cut line, and beat D.C. 2-1 on Wednesday. But FCC have just two wins in 15 road games, while D.C. have lost only once in five at Audi Field.
The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongD.C. lead MLS with 12 draws, and the model rates the home side 42% vs the market's 34.4%. FCC have conceded 71 in 30 league games; over 2.5 is priced 71.7% against a model 76%.
D.C.: slightly underrated
Low✗ Wrong AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips. Who reads the game best
In short
Second meeting in four days: FC Cincinnati won Wednesday's first leg 2-1 and sit 8th with playoff urgency, while D.C. United are 13th and have lost four of five. Cincinnati have won only two of fifteen away matches, but D.C.'s home form is modest too. Our numbers stay close to the market.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- D.C. United win or draw
- 59%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 76%
- FC Cincinnati win or draw
- 66%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 88%
- 3+ goals
- 70%
- 4+ goals
- 49%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 70%
- No
- 30%
We expect about 1.7 goals from D.C. United and 1.9 from FC Cincinnati. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (9%). Even the likeliest exact score happens less than 1 time in 10. Next: 1–2 (8%), 2–1 (8%), 2–2 (7%), 1–3 (5%).
How we got to these numbers
| Home | Draw | Away | 3+ goals | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bookmakers | 34% | 24% | 42% | 72% |
| Goals model | 42% | 22% | 36% | 76% |
| AI analysts | 39% | 24% | 36% | 73% |
| Our forecast | 34% | 24% | 41% | 71% |
Verdict: Our numbers stay close to the market because the factors pull in opposite directions: Cincinnati's away record and D.C.'s draw tendency argue against a strong away favourite, while Cincinnati's first-leg win and playoff urgency offset that.
Our forecast starts from the bookmakers' prices and moves only by what the news justifies, capped at 8 percentage points per outcome. Methodology
Prediction history
Frozen at kick-off. Version 2 is the one that counts in our track record. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
D.C. United: last 6
LLWLDL · 8 scored, 16 conceded
| 21 Oct | at FC Cincinnati | 1–2 | L |
| 17 Oct | at Orlando City SC | 1–4 | L |
| 14 Oct | vs New York Red Bulls | 2–1 | W |
| 10 Oct | at Inter Miami | 0–4 | L |
| 27 Sep | at Vancouver Whitecaps | 3–3 | D |
| 19 Sep | vs Charlotte | 1–2 | L |
Last 5 at home: WLDWD
FC Cincinnati: last 6
WLLWLD · 10 scored, 12 conceded
| 21 Oct | vs DC United | 2–1 | W |
| 18 Oct | vs Columbus Crew | 0–2 | L |
| 14 Oct | vs New England Revolution | 2–3 | L |
| 10 Oct | at Atlanta United FC | 3–1 | W |
| 26 Sep | at CF Montreal | 1–3 | L |
| 20 Sep | at Houston Dynamo | 2–2 | D |
Last 5 away: WLDLL
Season stats
| D.C. United | FC Cincinnati | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.27 | Goals scored per game | 2.07 |
| 1.77 | Goals conceded per game | 2.37 |
| 1.33 | Scored per game at home | 2.53 |
| 1.20 | Scored per game away | 1.60 |
| 63% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 73% |
| 63% | Both teams scored | 77% |
| 20% | Clean sheets | 7% |
| 30% | Failed to score | 17% |
| 2.00 | Yellow cards per game | 2.17 |
League matches only, 30 games each.
When goals come
| Minutes | D.C. United | FC Cincinnati |
|---|---|---|
| 0–15 min | ||
| 16–30 min | ||
| 31–45 min | ||
| 46–60 min | ||
| 61–75 min | ||
| 76–90 min |
MLS table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Chicago Fire | 31 | +9 | 51 | WLLWW |
| 5 | Charlotte | 31 | +7 | 47 | LDLWL |
| 6 | Philadelphia Union | 31 | +12 | 46 | LDWWW |
| 7 | FC Cincinnati | 31 | -7 | 42 | WWLLW |
| 8 | Orlando City SC | 31 | -12 | 42 | DWDWL |
| 9 | New York Red Bulls | 31 | -15 | 39 | WLLWL |
| 10 | Columbus Crew | 31 | +1 | 38 | WWWLW |
| 11 | Toronto FC | 31 | -11 | 36 | LWDWL |
| 12 | New York City FC | 31 | +2 | 35 | DDLLD |
| 13 | D.C. United | 31 | -17 | 33 | LLLWL |
| 14 | Atlanta United FC | 31 | -15 | 30 | LLWLD |
| 15 | CF Montreal | 31 | -26 | 25 | LDLLW |
Head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: D.C. United won 2, FC Cincinnati 3, 1 draw; 2.5 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 Oct 2026 | FC Cincinnati | 2–1 | D.C. United | Major League Soccer |
| 31 May 2025 | FC Cincinnati | 1–2 | D.C. United | Major League Soccer |
| 12 Apr 2025 | D.C. United | 0–1 | FC Cincinnati | Major League Soccer |
| 3 Jul 2024 | D.C. United | 2–3 | FC Cincinnati | Major League Soccer |
| 10 Mar 2024 | FC Cincinnati | 0–0 | D.C. United | Major League Soccer |
| 24 Jun 2023 | D.C. United | 3–0 | FC Cincinnati | Major League Soccer |
Team news: lineups Confirmed
Goalkeeper
- 1S. Johnson
Defenders
- 5S. Hefti
- 3L. Bartlett
- 15K. Rowles
- 6K. Kurokawa
Midfielders
- 2K. Nono
- 23B. Servania
- 21A. Dozzell
- 7Peglow
Forwards
- 25J. Hopkins
- 9T. Baribo
Substitutes (9)
- 12C. Antley
- 32O. Avilez
- 40K. Castillo
- 27Nikola Markovic
- 13S. Nealis
- 22N. Ordaz
- 4M. Peltola
- 8J. Stroud
- 26A. Bono
Goalkeeper
- 18R. Celentano
Defenders
- 24K. Smith
- 4N. Hagglund
- 15T. Hadebe
Midfielders
- 23D. Douděra
- 20P. Bucha
- 10Evander
- 5O. Nwobodo
- 29Bryan Josías Ramírez León
Forwards
- 16T. Barlow
- 9K. Denkey
Substitutes (9)
- 11S. Gidi
- 99A. Jabbari
- 13E. Louro
- 17K. Mboma Dem
- 2A. Powell
- 88A. Chirila
- 22G. Valenzuela
- 27B. Anunga
- 70J. Martínez
Official team sheets, updated ET.
Team news: injuries and suspensions
- OutH. KijimaLeg
- OutL. MunteanuLeg
- OutG. SegalLeg
- OutE. EcheniqueLeg
- OutT. MalaciaAnkle
- OutJ. MalatiniThigh
Show 1 more
- OutM. RobinsonLeg
From our match data feed · updated ET.
Key facts
- D.C. United are 13th with 33 points from 30 games; FC Cincinnati are 8th with 39 points and three points clear of the cut line with four games left.[1][2][3]
- Cincinnati won the first leg 2-1 on 21 October, with Douděra and Hadebe scoring their first goals for the club.[2]
- D.C. have lost four of their last five league matches, including 1-4 at Orlando City and 0-4 at Inter Miami.[2]
- D.C. have drawn a league-leading 12 matches and have lost just once at Audi Field in their last five home games.[2]
- Cincinnati have conceded 71 goals in 30 matches, and goalkeeper Celentano has two clean sheets in 25 appearances.[3]
- Denkey has 21 goals in all competitions and Evander 13 goals with 14 assists for Cincinnati; Baribo leads D.C. with 16 goals.[2][3]
- Coach Noonan identified transition, set pieces and box defending as keys, admitting in-ball decision-making caused stress on Wednesday.[1]
Sources
- fccincinnati.com – Road Trip Headlines | FC Cincinnati visit the nation’s capital for a road matchup with D.C. United - FC Cincinnati (2026-10-23)
- fccincinnati.com – MATCHDAY PREVIEW presented by Kiesland | FC Cincinnati visit the nation's capital to take on D.C. United - FC Cincinnati (2026-10-23)
- dcunited.com – Match Preview: D.C. United vs. FC Cincinnati | Saturday, October 24, 2026 - D.C. United (2026-10-23)
Off the pitch
Match context
- Stadium
- Audi Field, Washington, District of Columbia
- 20,621 seats · grass
- Travel for FC Cincinnati
- 646 km
- Rest days
- D.C. United 3FC Cincinnati 3
- Matches in the last 14 days: D.C. United 3 · FC Cincinnati 3
- Weather at kick-off
- 13°C · wind 7 km/h
- Dry
- Referee
- Jon Freemon
- 4.4 yellow cards per game and 0.24 penalties per game over 17 games — above the MLS average (4.0 yellows).
- Coaches
- R. Weiler
- D.C. United, since Jan 2025
- Pat Noonan
- FC Cincinnati, since Feb 2026
- Goals in this league
- MLS average: 3.25 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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