FC Dallas vs San Jose Earthquakes prediction
Full analysisTeam news, injuries and lineups read by our AI scouts, updated when the official lineups are out. How it works
KickoffHour pre-match forecast
Who wins?
Dallas to win: 54%, about 1 in 2
Goals call3+ goals 67% · bookies 67% · ✓ 3 goals
The Verdict
Our numbers stay close to the bookmakers', moving only a single point from home to draw at 54/23/23. The Sceptic's four-point shift toward San Jose was not followed, because San Jose's lengthy absence list weakens the road form that argument relies on.
What our AI analysts say
1 of 3 think San Jose Earthquakes's chances are better than the bookmakers say. It does not make San Jose Earthquakes favourites.
The Coach
tactics and lineupsDallas edge at home, but San Jose's road strength keeps this tight.
Dallas miss suspended forward Sam Sarver.
The Dressing Room
mood and pressureThe high stakes and offensive potential make this a crucial battle for playoff positioning.
FC Dallas is ranked 3rd in the West with 51 points, while San Jose is 4th with 48 points. This is a six-pointer with playoff seeding on the line.
San Jose Earthquakes: slightly overrated
Low The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongThe tight race and high-scoring environment suggest a goal-laden contest.
The league averages 3.25 goals per match this season.
San Jose Earthquakes: slightly underrated
Low✗ Wrong AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips. Who reads the game best
In short
Third hosts fourth in Frisco with playoff seeding at stake, and only three points separate the sides. Dallas are strong at home while San Jose own one of the league's best road records, but the visitors travel with a long absence list. Our final numbers end up very close to the market.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- FC Dallas win or draw
- 77%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 77%
- San Jose Earthquakes win or draw
- 46%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 86%
- 3+ goals
- 66%
- 4+ goals
- 45%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 64%
- No
- 36%
We expect about 2.1 goals from FC Dallas and 1.3 from San Jose Earthquakes. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 2–1 (10%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 11. Next: 1–1 (9%), 2–0 (7%), 1–0 (7%), 3–1 (7%).
How we got to these numbers
| Home | Draw | Away | 3+ goals | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bookmakers | 55% | 22% | 23% | 67% |
| Goals model | 44% | 25% | 31% | 63% |
| AI analysts | 46% | 25% | 29% | 65% |
| Our forecast | 54% | 23% | 23% | 67% |
Verdict: Our numbers stay close to the market because the factors pull in opposite directions: Dallas's strong home record and higher league position favour the hosts, while San Jose's excellent away form favours the visitors, and the visitors' long absence list tempers that road strength.
Our forecast starts from the bookmakers' prices and moves only by what the news justifies, capped at 8 percentage points per outcome. Methodology
Prediction history
Frozen at kick-off. Version 2 is the one that counts in our track record. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
FC Dallas: last 6
DWLWDW · 8 scored, 6 conceded
| 18 Oct | at Houston Dynamo | 2–2 | D |
| 15 Oct | vs Seattle Sounders | 1–0 | W |
| 10 Oct | at Charlotte | 2–3 | L |
| 27 Sep | vs Los Angeles FC | 1–0 | W |
| 20 Sep | vs Austin | 0–0 | D |
| 13 Sep | vs Portland Timbers | 2–1 | W |
Last 5 at home: WWDWW
San Jose Earthquakes: last 6
DDDWDW · 9 scored, 6 conceded
| 18 Oct | vs Nashville SC | 1–1 | D |
| 15 Oct | at Real Salt Lake | 1–1 | D |
| 11 Oct | at Colorado Rapids | 1–1 | D |
| 27 Sep | vs Portland Timbers | 3–1 | W |
| 19 Sep | vs Los Angeles FC | 2–2 | D |
| 13 Sep | vs Houston Dynamo | 1–0 | W |
Last 5 away: DDWDD
Season stats
| FC Dallas | San Jose Earthquakes | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.83 | Goals scored per game | 1.73 |
| 1.57 | Goals conceded per game | 1.40 |
| 1.86 | Scored per game at home | 1.73 |
| 1.81 | Scored per game away | 1.73 |
| 67% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 53% |
| 63% | Both teams scored | 67% |
| 23% | Clean sheets | 23% |
| 23% | Failed to score | 13% |
| 2.27 | Yellow cards per game | 2.23 |
League matches only, 30 games each.
When goals come
| Minutes | FC Dallas | San Jose Earthquakes |
|---|---|---|
| 0–15 min | ||
| 16–30 min | ||
| 31–45 min | ||
| 46–60 min | ||
| 61–75 min | ||
| 76–90 min |
MLS table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vancouver Whitecaps | 31 | +31 | 55 | LWDDL |
| 2 | FC Dallas | 31 | +11 | 54 | WDWLW |
| 3 | St. Louis City | 31 | +12 | 51 | LLDWW |
| 4 | San Jose Earthquakes | 31 | +7 | 48 | LDDDW |
| 5 | Houston Dynamo | 31 | +2 | 48 | DDDDL |
| 6 | Los Angeles FC | 31 | +15 | 46 | DWDLD |
| 7 | Seattle Sounders | 31 | +2 | 43 | DDLWW |
Head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: FC Dallas won 2, San Jose Earthquakes 2, 2 draws; 4.2 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 May 2026 | San Jose Earthquakes | 2–3 | FC Dallas | Major League Soccer |
| 17 Jul 2025 | San Jose Earthquakes | 2–2 | FC Dallas | Major League Soccer |
| 26 Jun 2025 | FC Dallas | 2–4 | San Jose Earthquakes | Major League Soccer |
| 3 Oct 2024 | San Jose Earthquakes | 3–2 | FC Dallas | Major League Soccer |
| 25 Feb 2024 | FC Dallas | 2–1 | San Jose Earthquakes | Major League Soccer |
| 8 Oct 2023 | FC Dallas | 1–1 | San Jose Earthquakes | Major League Soccer |
Team news: lineups Confirmed
Goalkeeper
- 42Daniel
Defenders
- 25S. Ibeagha
- 3O. Urhoghide
- 18S. Moore
Midfielders
- 14H. Johansson
- 55Kaick
- 17Ramiro
- 77B. Kamungo
- 21J. Valiente
- 7D. Job
Forward
- 9P. Musa
Substitutes (9)
- 32N. Norris
- 12C. Cappis
- 8P. Delgado
- 5L. Abubakar
- 6R. Binyamin
- 10S. Moreno
- 40J. Sirois
- 27Caleb Swann
- 11A. Julio
Goalkeeper
- 1A. Gunn
Defenders
- 5D. Munie
- 4D. Romney
- 18R. Roberts
Midfielders
- 17Jack Jasinski
- 14R. Vieira
- 23E. Löwen
- 2J. Ricketts
- 34Beau Leroux
- 11T. Werner
Forward
- 7O. Bouda
Substitutes (9)
- 25M. Floriani
- 6I. Harkes
- 9L. Jovanović
- 3P. Marie
- 87Vítor Costa
- 20N. Fernandez
- 36E. Edwards
- 16J. Skahan
- 10N. Tsakiris
Official team sheets, updated ET.
Team news: injuries and suspensions
- Susp.S. SarverSuspended
- OutL. FarringtonLower-Body
- OutGeovane JesusKnee
- Susp.P. JuddSuspended
- OutN. AdimabuaHernia
- OutJ. A. Gonzalez MendozaInjury
Show 3 more
- OutD. JohnsonLower-Body
- OutD. JonesAchilles Tendon
- OutB. KikanovicLower-Body
From our match data feed · updated ET.
Key facts
- FC Dallas sit third in the West on 51 points from 30 games, three points ahead of fourth-placed San Jose Earthquakes.[1]
- Dallas have been difficult to beat at home this season, with seven wins, five draws and only two home defeats.[1]
- San Jose arrive on a run of three straight league draws, each ending 1-1.[1]
- The match is played at Toyota Stadium in Frisco and is broadcast on Apple TV.[1]
Sources
- fcdallas.com – SET THE STAGE: FC Dallas vs. San Jose Earthquakes | 10.24.26 - FC Dallas (2026-10-23)
Match context
- Stadium
- Toyota Stadium, Frisco, Texas
- 22,565 seats · grass
- Rest days
- FC Dallas 7San Jose Earthquakes 6
- Matches in the last 14 days: FC Dallas 2 · San Jose Earthquakes 3
- Referee
- Rubiel Vazquez
- 3.4 yellow cards per game and 0.44 penalties per game over 18 games — below the MLS average (4.0 yellows).
- Coaches
- Eric Quill
- FC Dallas, since Feb 2026
- B. Arena
- San Jose Earthquakes, since Jan 2025
- Goals in this league
- MLS average: 3.25 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
18+ · Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. If you bet, bet only what you can afford to lose. Responsible gambling
