CF Montréal vs Nashville SC prediction
Full analysisTeam news, injuries and lineups read by our AI scouts, updated when the official lineups are out. How it works
KickoffHour pre-match forecast
Who wins?
Nashville to win: 64%, about 2 in 3
Goals call3+ goals 61% · bookies 61% · ✗ 2 goals
The Verdict
Our numbers stay close to the bookmakers' because Nashville's full-strength lineup and Shield motivation are already captured in the pricing, so The Sceptic's four-point shift toward the away win was not followed. The Coach's small bump to the over was also not adopted, as Nashville's elite defence may suppress the total in an otherwise high-scoring environment.
What our AI analysts say
1 of 3 think Nashville SC's chances are better than the bookmakers say.
The Coach
tactics and lineupsFull-strength Nashville chasing the Shield should be too strong for a shaky Montreal side.
Nashville name their strongest XI: Schwake in goal, Najar-Woledzi-Palacios-Baker-Whiting defence, Mukhtar, Surridge and Espinoza all start. Key duel: Mukhtar and Espinoza against Montréal's young back line of Morales and Radojevic.
The Dressing Room
mood and pressureNashville's dominant form and Shield motivation make them heavy favorites to secure the win.
Nashville SC is 1st in the East with 67 points and a league-leading defense. CF Montréal is 15th in the East, currently winless in nearly a month. The club has also faced significant off-pitch issues regarding fan conduct and morale.
The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongNashville SC's superior form and defensive stability should secure the victory at GEODIS.
Nashville is unbeaten in six matches and has a league-leading defense.
Nashville: clearly underrated
Med✓ Right AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips. Who reads the game best
In short
Nashville SC, top of the East with the league's best defence, can clinch the Supporters' Shield with a win or draw at Stade Saputo. CF Montréal sit bottom of the conference, winless in nearly a month and dealing with the fallout from fan trouble after their cup final defeat. Our numbers stay close to the market.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- CF Montréal win or draw
- 36%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 80%
- Nashville SC win or draw
- 84%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 82%
- 3+ goals
- 61%
- 4+ goals
- 39%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 55%
- No
- 45%
We expect about 1.0 goals from CF Montréal and 2.2 from Nashville SC. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 0–2 (10%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 10. Next: 1–2 (10%), 0–1 (9%), 1–1 (9%), 0–3 (7%).
How we got to these numbers
| Home | Draw | Away | 3+ goals | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bookmakers | 16% | 20% | 64% | 61% |
| Goals model | 12% | 20% | 68% | 57% |
| AI analysts | 12% | 19% | 69% | 58% |
| Our forecast | 16% | 20% | 64% | 61% |
Verdict: Our probabilities stay close to the market because the quality gap, Nashville's Shield motivation and Montréal's poor form are already reflected in the pricing, and the confirmed full-strength Nashville lineup offers no reason to adjust further.
Our forecast starts from the bookmakers' prices and moves only by what the news justifies, capped at 8 percentage points per outcome. Methodology
Prediction history
Frozen at kick-off. Version 2 is the one that counts in our track record. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
CF Montréal: last 6
DDLLWL · 6 scored, 10 conceded
| 21 Oct | vs Forge Canadian Championship | 1–1 | D |
| 18 Oct | at Seattle Sounders | 1–1 | D |
| 14 Oct | vs Atlanta United FC | 0–3 | L |
| 10 Oct | at Toronto FC | 1–2 | L |
| 26 Sep | vs FC Cincinnati | 3–1 | W |
| 19 Sep | vs Columbus Crew | 0–2 | L |
Last 5 at home: DLWLW
Nashville SC: last 6
DWWWWD · 16 scored, 4 conceded
| 18 Oct | at San Jose Earthquakes | 1–1 | D |
| 15 Oct | vs Sporting Kansas City | 4–0 | W |
| 11 Oct | at Austin | 4–1 | W |
| 27 Sep | vs Toronto FC | 2–0 | W |
| 20 Sep | vs Chicago Fire | 3–0 | W |
| 12 Sep | at Inter Miami | 2–2 | D |
Last 5 away: DWDLD
Season stats
| CF Montréal | Nashville SC | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.20 | Goals scored per game | 2.13 |
| 2.00 | Goals conceded per game | 0.77 |
| 1.27 | Scored per game at home | 3.00 |
| 1.13 | Scored per game away | 1.27 |
| 63% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 60% |
| 53% | Both teams scored | 47% |
| 13% | Clean sheets | 47% |
| 37% | Failed to score | 17% |
| 2.10 | Yellow cards per game | 1.70 |
League matches only, 30 games each.
When goals come
| Minutes | CF Montréal | Nashville SC |
|---|---|---|
| 0–15 min | ||
| 16–30 min | ||
| 31–45 min | ||
| 46–60 min | ||
| 61–75 min | ||
| 76–90 min |
MLS table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nashville SC | 31 | +43 | 70 | WDWWW |
| 2 | Inter Miami | 31 | +20 | 55 | LWWWL |
| 3 | New England Revolution | 31 | +9 | 55 | WWWLL |
| 4 | Chicago Fire | 31 | +9 | 51 | WLLWW |
| … | |||||
| 12 | New York City FC | 31 | +2 | 35 | DDLLD |
| 13 | DC United | 31 | -17 | 33 | LLLWL |
| 14 | Atlanta United FC | 31 | -15 | 30 | LLWLD |
| 15 | CF Montréal | 31 | -26 | 25 | LDLLW |
Head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: CF Montréal won 1, Nashville SC 3, 2 draws; 2.0 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 Jul 2026 | Nashville SC | 1–0 | CF Montréal | Major League Soccer |
| 4 Oct 2025 | CF Montréal | 1–1 | Nashville SC | Major League Soccer |
| 23 Mar 2025 | Nashville SC | 3–0 | CF Montréal | Major League Soccer |
| 25 May 2024 | CF Montréal | 0–0 | Nashville SC | Major League Soccer |
| 5 May 2024 | Nashville SC | 4–1 | CF Montréal | Major League Soccer |
| 21 Jun 2023 | CF Montréal | 1–0 | Nashville SC | Major League Soccer |
Team news: lineups Confirmed
Goalkeeper
- 41S. Keita
Defenders
- 27D. Bugaj
- 24E. Morales
- 4B. Vera
- 28V. Radojević
Midfielders
- 6S. Piette
- 7D. Pereira
- 18H. Synchuk
- 29O. Escobar
- 17D. Sealy
Forward
- 10A. Sánchez
Substitutes (9)
- 25F. Amaya
- 1S. Breza
- 16W. Carmona
- 5B. Craig
- 21F. Herbers
- 8M. Longstaff
- 22V. Loturi
- 13L. Petrasso
- 14D. Ríos
Goalkeeper
- 99B. Schwake
Defenders
- 31A. Najar
- 4J. Palacios
- 3M. Woledzi
- 27R. Baker-Whiting
Midfielders
- 8P. Yazbek
- 16M. Corcoran
- 7C. Espinoza
- 10H. Mukhtar
- 11E. Saad
Forward
- 9S. Surridge
Substitutes (9)
- 22J. Bauer
- 2D. Lovitz
- 41W. Madrigal
- 5J. Maher
- 14S. Mohammed
- 19A. Muyl
- 20E. Tagseth
- 1J. Willis
- 6B. Acosta
Official team sheets, updated ET.
Team news: injuries and suspensions
- OutB. CeballosLower-Body
- OutT. GillierUpper-Body
- OutB. HidalgoGroin
Show 2 more
- OutJ. NealLower-Body
- OutP. OwusuLower-Body
- OutF. CamaraLower-Body
- OutO. PresthusLower-Body
From our match data feed · updated ET.
Key facts
- Nashville lead the East with 67 points from 30 games and can clinch the Supporters' Shield with a win or draw, or if Vancouver drop points.[1][3]
- CF Montréal are 15th with 25 points from 30 games, bottom of the conference, and have not won in nearly a month.[2][3][4]
- Nashville have the best defensive record in MLS with 23 goals conceded.[1][2]
- Nashville are unbeaten in their last six matches, including a 4-0 win over Sporting Kansas City and a 4-1 win at Austin.[2]
- Montréal's recent league results include a 0-3 home loss to Atlanta United and a 1-1 draw at Seattle.[2]
- Nashville won the earlier meeting this season 1-0 at GEODIS, with Surridge scoring a penalty.[1][3]
- Prince Owusu has 15 goals and 5 assists in 26 appearances for Montréal this season, while Alexis Sánchez has one assist in 11 matches since joining in August.[3]
- Mukhtar has scored in each of Nashville's last five matches.[3]
Sources
- en.cfmontreal.com – CF Montréal returns to MLS action this Saturday against Nashville SC - CF Montréal (2026-10-23)
- bbc.co.uk – Montréal vs Nashville SC: Major League Soccer stats & head-to-head - BBC (2026-10-24)
- nashvillesc.com – GEODIS Preview: Nashville SC aims for Supporters’ Shield title, season sweep in midday kick at CF Montréal - Nashville SC (2026-10-23)
- ctvnews.ca – Lifetime bans issued to CF Montreal fans for vandalism - CTV News
Match context
- Stadium
- Stade Saputo, Montreal, Quebec
- 20,801 seats · grass
- Travel for Nashville SC
- 1,516 km
- +1 h time zone
- Rest days
- CF Montréal 2Nashville SC 6
- Matches in the last 14 days: CF Montréal 3 · Nashville SC 3
- Weather at kick-off
- 9°C · wind 6 km/h
- Dry
- Referee
- Lukasz Szpala
- Coaches
- Philippe Eullaffroy
- CF Montréal, since Feb 2026
- B. Callaghan
- Nashville SC, since Jul 2024
- Goals in this league
- MLS average: 3.25 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
18+ · Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. If you bet, bet only what you can afford to lose. Responsible gambling
