Real Salt Lake vs St. Louis CITY SC prediction
Full analysisTeam news, injuries and lineups read by our AI scouts, updated when the official lineups are out. How it works
KickoffHour pre-match forecast
Who wins?
Real Salt Lake to win: 44%, about 2 in 5
Goals call3+ goals 63% · bookies 63% · ✓ 3 goals
The Verdict
Our numbers moved away from the bookmakers' slightly in favor of the home side, reflecting the physical disparity between the two teams. The Sceptic's view was not followed because the fatigue and travel factors were deemed too significant to ignore, despite the market's modest home edge.
What our AI analysts say
2 of 3 think Real Salt Lake's chances are better than the bookmakers say. The Sceptic thinks a draw is underrated.
The Coach
tactics and lineupsRested full-strength RSL host a rotated, trophy-celebrating St. Louis side.
RSL name their predicted XI with a week's rest; St. Louis rotate four players (Ostrak, Durkin, Brunet and 2 more start) after 120 minutes plus penalties in the Open Cup final Oct 21. Navarro still leads the line for St. Louis. Caliskan links with Guilavogui for RSL.
Real Salt Lake: slightly underrated
Fewer goalsLow✓ Right The Dressing Room
mood and pressureRest and desperation favour Salt Lake against a tired, celebrating St. Louis side at home.
St. RSL sit 3 points off the final Wild Card spot and likely need three wins in the last four games. Louis.
Real Salt Lake: slightly underrated
Fewer goalsLow✓ Right The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongSt Louis's cup-final fatigue tips a tight matchup toward home, but only slightly - edge to RSL at Sandy.
RSL's home record in Sandy is 11W-4L-4T and the market makes them favorites at 2.23. St Louis sit 2nd with 51 pts, +15 GD, on a 19-game unbeaten league run before last week's loss.
AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips. Who reads the game best
In short
Real Salt Lake seeks vital points at home against a St. Louis CITY SC side that is celebrating a recent trophy. The match features a clash between RSL's desperate need for playoff positioning and St. Louis's post-Open Cup fatigue and travel schedule.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Real Salt Lake win or draw
- 68%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 76%
- St. Louis CITY SC win or draw
- 56%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 83%
- 3+ goals
- 62%
- 4+ goals
- 40%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 64%
- No
- 36%
We expect about 1.8 goals from Real Salt Lake and 1.5 from St. Louis CITY SC. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (10%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 10. Next: 2–1 (9%), 1–2 (8%), 1–0 (7%), 2–2 (7%).
How we got to these numbers
| Home | Draw | Away | 3+ goals | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bookmakers | 44% | 24% | 33% | 63% |
| Goals model | 34% | 26% | 40% | 60% |
| AI analysts | 40% | 26% | 34% | 59% |
| Our forecast | 44% | 24% | 32% | 63% |
Verdict: Our final probabilities remain close to the market, reflecting the uncertainty surrounding St. Louis's post-trophy fatigue and RSL's urgent need for points. The slight shift toward home is primarily driven by the physical disparity between the two teams.
Our forecast starts from the bookmakers' prices and moves only by what the news justifies, capped at 8 percentage points per outcome. Methodology
Prediction history
Frozen at kick-off. Version 2 is the one that counts in our track record. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Real Salt Lake: last 6
WDLWLL · 8 scored, 9 conceded
| 18 Oct | at Sporting Kansas City | 3–1 | W |
| 15 Oct | vs San Jose Earthquakes | 1–1 | D |
| 10 Oct | at Philadelphia Union | 1–2 | L |
| 27 Sep | vs New England Revolution | 3–0 | W |
| 24 Sep | at Seattle Sounders | 0–2 | L |
| 20 Sep | vs Vancouver Whitecaps | 0–3 | L |
Last 5 at home: DWLLD
St. Louis CITY SC: last 6
DLDWWW · 14 scored, 6 conceded
| 22 Oct | at Columbus Crew US Open Cup | 0–0 | D |
| 17 Oct | at Minnesota United FC | 2–3 | L |
| 15 Oct | vs Vancouver Whitecaps | 0–0 | D |
| 11 Oct | vs Los Angeles Galaxy | 6–2 | W |
| 30 Sep | at New York Red Bulls | 3–0 | W |
| 20 Sep | vs Toronto FC | 3–1 | W |
Last 5 away: DLWWD
Season stats
| Real Salt Lake | St. Louis CITY SC | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.50 | Goals scored per game | 1.87 |
| 1.60 | Goals conceded per game | 1.37 |
| 1.87 | Scored per game at home | 2.27 |
| 1.13 | Scored per game away | 1.47 |
| 67% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 57% |
| 70% | Both teams scored | 70% |
| 10% | Clean sheets | 17% |
| 20% | Failed to score | 17% |
| 2.30 | Yellow cards per game | 2.10 |
League matches only, 30 games each.
When goals come
| Minutes | Real Salt Lake | St. Louis CITY SC |
|---|---|---|
| 0–15 min | ||
| 16–30 min | ||
| 31–45 min | ||
| 46–60 min | ||
| 61–75 min | ||
| 76–90 min |
MLS table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vancouver Whitecaps | 31 | +31 | 55 | LWDDL |
| 2 | FC Dallas | 31 | +11 | 54 | WDWLW |
| 3 | St. Louis CITY SC | 31 | +12 | 51 | LLDWW |
| 4 | San Jose Earthquakes | 31 | +7 | 48 | LDDDW |
| 5 | Houston Dynamo | 31 | +2 | 48 | DDDDL |
| 6 | Los Angeles FC | 31 | +15 | 46 | DWDLD |
| 7 | Seattle Sounders | 31 | +2 | 43 | DDLWW |
| 8 | Colorado Rapids | 31 | +1 | 42 | WDDDL |
| 9 | Los Angeles Galaxy | 31 | -9 | 40 | DWLWW |
| 10 | Real Salt Lake | 31 | +0 | 39 | WWDLW |
| 11 | Portland Timbers | 31 | -4 | 37 | WDLDL |
| 12 | San Diego | 31 | -3 | 35 | DDDLD |
| 13 | Minnesota United FC | 31 | -8 | 35 | DWDDL |
Head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Real Salt Lake won 2, St. Louis CITY SC 0, 4 draws; 3.2 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Aug 2026 | St. Louis CITY SC | 1–1 | Real Salt Lake | Major League Soccer |
| 19 Oct 2025 | St. Louis CITY SC | 2–2 | Real Salt Lake | Major League Soccer |
| 6 Jul 2025 | Real Salt Lake | 3–2 | St. Louis CITY SC | Major League Soccer |
| 5 Feb 2025 | St. Louis CITY SC | 1–1 | Real Salt Lake | Friendlies Clubs |
| 31 Mar 2024 | Real Salt Lake | 3–1 | St. Louis CITY SC | Major League Soccer |
| 25 Feb 2024 | St. Louis CITY SC | 1–1 | Real Salt Lake | Major League Soccer |
Team news: lineups Confirmed
Goalkeeper
- 1Rafael Cabral
Defenders
- 11D. Marczuk
- 44L. De Fougerolles
- 26P. Quinton
- 3K. Henry
- 8J. Sanabria
Midfielders
- 12S. Lobzhanidze
- 6S. Spierings
- 92N. Caliskan
- 9M. Guilavogui
Forward
- 22S. Solans
Substitutes (9)
- 39A. Hezarkhani
- 25Colin Guske
- 23Chadwick Zachary Booth
- 29S. Junqua
- 98A. Katránis
- 19A. Piol
- 31M. Stajduhar
- 2D. Yedlin
- 15J. Glad
Goalkeeper
- 39B. Lundt
Defenders
- 99J. Orozco
- 32T. Baumgartl
- 27F. Fall
Midfielders
- 6C. Wallem
- 18C. Brunet
- 8C. Durkin
- 20Rafael Santos
Forwards
- 7T. Ostrák
- 9Rafael Navarro
- 11S. Becher
Substitutes (9)
- 4M. Fall
- 19C. Holse
- 77Jeong Sang-Bin
- 59M. Joyner
- 5L. MacNaughton
- 31C. Olivares
- 24D. Edelman
- 42D. Downs
- 21D. Polvara
Official team sheets, updated ET.
Team news: injuries and suspensions
- OutJ. J. AriasHamstring
- OutG. DillonFoot
- OutE. EneliKnee
Show 2 more
- OutL. EngelHamstring
- OutD. LunaKnee
- OutR. BurkiHead
- OutCelio PompeuKnee
- OutK. HiebertHip
Show 1 more
- OutA. MatanInjury
From our match data feed · updated ET.
Key facts
- Real Salt Lake is currently tenth in the league standings with 36 points from 30 matches.[1]
- St. Louis CITY SC occupies the second spot in the table, having accumulated 51 points from 30 games.[1]
Sources
- en.as.com – Line up Real Salt Lake vs St. Louis City SC, MLS - Liga USA 2026 - Diario AS (2026-10-24)
Match context
- Stadium
- America First Field, Sandy, Utah
- 21,810 seats · grass
- Travel for St. Louis CITY SC
- 1,862 km
- -1 h time zone
- Rest days
- Real Salt Lake 7St. Louis CITY SC 3
- Matches in the last 14 days: Real Salt Lake 2 · St. Louis CITY SC 4
- Weather at kick-off
- 10°C · wind 7 km/h
- Dry
- Referee
- Drew Fischer
- 4.2 yellow cards per game and 0.19 penalties per game over 16 games — close to the MLS average (4.0 yellows).
- Coaches
- P. Mastroeni
- Real Salt Lake, since Aug 2021
- Y. Damet
- St. Louis CITY SC, since Feb 2026
- Goals in this league
- MLS average: 3.25 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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