San Diego FC vs Seattle Sounders FC prediction
Full analysisTeam news, injuries and lineups read by our AI scouts, updated when the official lineups are out. How it works
KickoffHour pre-match forecast
Who wins?
San Diego to win: 40%, about 2 in 5
Goals call3+ goals 69% · bookies 68% · ✓ 4 goals
The Verdict
Our numbers stay close to the bookmakers', moving only a few points from home to away to reflect Seattle's form and defensive record against San Diego's eight-match winless run. The Sceptic's view on the total was not fully followed: it argued for trimming over 2.5 to roughly 58%, but our over stays near the market at 69% given both sides' motivation and San Diego's open, high-possession style.
What our AI analysts say
2 of 3 think Seattle Sounders FC's chances are better than the bookmakers say.
The Coach
tactics and lineupsSeattle Sounders' defensive strength and higher league standing give them the advantage.
San Diego FC is winless in its last eight matches, needing a victory to keep playoff hopes alive. Seattle Sounders, ranked 7th, has a strong defense, conceding only 3.0 goals per game over its last 10 matches. San Diego leads the league in possession, but Seattle's coach warns of tactical emphasis on moving forward, increasing counterattack exposure.
Seattle Sounders: strongly underrated
Fewer goalsHigh✗ Wrong The Dressing Room
mood and pressureSan Diego winless in 8 must win; Seattle's steadier form and defense edge a tight game.
Seattle sit 7th with 42 points and can clinch a playoff spot with a win, but managed just 1 goal across their last two matches after a four-game winning run.
Seattle Sounders: slightly underrated
Fewer goalsLow✗ Wrong The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongThe Sounders' defensive stability and recent scoring dip suggest caution regarding high-scoring outcomes.
Seattle Sounders FC holds a strong defensive record, conceding only 3.0 goals per game over its last 10. The first encounter between the two teams concluded with a 1-1 draw.
AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips. Who reads the game best
In short
San Diego FC, 12th in the West and winless in eight, must win to keep faint playoff hopes alive. Seattle, 7th and defensively strong, can clinch a playoff spot with a win but has scored only once in its last two matches. Both sides carry several absences.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- San Diego FC win or draw
- 64%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 76%
- Seattle Sounders FC win or draw
- 60%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 87%
- 3+ goals
- 68%
- 4+ goals
- 47%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 69%
- No
- 31%
We expect about 1.8 goals from San Diego FC and 1.7 from Seattle Sounders FC. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (9%). Even the likeliest exact score happens less than 1 time in 10. Next: 2–1 (8%), 1–2 (8%), 2–2 (7%), 1–0 (5%).
How we got to these numbers
| Home | Draw | Away | 3+ goals | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bookmakers | 43% | 24% | 33% | 68% |
| Goals model | 41% | 26% | 32% | 56% |
| AI analysts | 37% | 26% | 37% | 57% |
| Our forecast | 40% | 24% | 36% | 69% |
Verdict: Our away probability rises slightly above the market because Seattle are higher in the table, defensively stronger and can clinch a playoff spot, while San Diego are winless in eight. The home edge is trimmed accordingly, with the draw unchanged.
Our forecast starts from the bookmakers' prices and moves only by what the news justifies, capped at 8 percentage points per outcome. Methodology
Prediction history
Frozen at kick-off. Version 2 is the one that counts in our track record. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
San Diego FC: last 6
DDLDDL · 11 scored, 19 conceded
| 18 Oct | at Los Angeles Galaxy | 2–2 | D |
| 15 Oct | vs Houston Dynamo | 3–3 | D |
| 10 Oct | at New York Red Bulls | 1–4 | L |
| 27 Sep | at Austin | 3–3 | D |
| 20 Sep | at Inter Miami | 2–2 | D |
| 14 Sep | vs Philadelphia Union | 0–5 | L |
Last 5 at home: DLLWW
Seattle Sounders FC: last 6
DLWWWW · 11 scored, 4 conceded
| 18 Oct | vs CF Montreal | 1–1 | D |
| 15 Oct | at FC Dallas | 0–1 | L |
| 10 Oct | at New England Revolution | 3–0 | W |
| 2 Oct | vs Sporting Kansas City | 2–1 | W |
| 27 Sep | vs Minnesota United FC | 3–1 | W |
| 24 Sep | vs Real Salt Lake | 2–0 | W |
Last 5 away: LWDDD
Season stats
| San Diego FC | Seattle Sounders FC | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.77 | Goals scored per game | 1.30 |
| 1.87 | Goals conceded per game | 1.23 |
| 2.33 | Scored per game at home | 1.60 |
| 1.20 | Scored per game away | 1.00 |
| 70% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 43% |
| 60% | Both teams scored | 57% |
| 23% | Clean sheets | 27% |
| 17% | Failed to score | 23% |
| 2.00 | Yellow cards per game | 1.63 |
League matches only, 30 games each.
When goals come
| Minutes | San Diego FC | Seattle Sounders FC |
|---|---|---|
| 0–15 min | ||
| 16–30 min | ||
| 31–45 min | ||
| 46–60 min | ||
| 61–75 min | ||
| 76–90 min |
MLS table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | San Jose Earthquakes | 31 | +7 | 48 | LDDDW |
| 5 | Houston Dynamo | 31 | +2 | 48 | DDDDL |
| 6 | Los Angeles FC | 31 | +15 | 46 | DWDLD |
| 7 | Seattle Sounders FC | 31 | +2 | 43 | DDLWW |
| 8 | Colorado Rapids | 31 | +1 | 42 | WDDDL |
| 9 | Los Angeles Galaxy | 31 | -9 | 40 | DWLWW |
| 10 | Real Salt Lake | 31 | +0 | 39 | WWDLW |
| 11 | Portland Timbers | 31 | -4 | 37 | WDLDL |
| 12 | San Diego FC | 31 | -3 | 35 | DDDLD |
| 13 | Minnesota United FC | 31 | -8 | 35 | DWDDL |
| 14 | Austin | 31 | -17 | 34 | WLLLD |
| 15 | Sporting Kansas City | 31 | -40 | 22 | LLLDL |
Head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: San Diego FC won 1, Seattle Sounders FC 1, 1 draw; 2.0 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 May 2026 | Seattle Sounders FC | 1–1 | San Diego FC | Major League Soccer |
| 29 May 2025 | Seattle Sounders FC | 1–0 | San Diego FC | Major League Soccer |
| 6 Apr 2025 | San Diego FC | 3–0 | Seattle Sounders FC | Major League Soccer |
Team news: lineups Confirmed
Goalkeeper
- 13P. Sisniega
Defenders
- 33O. Verhoeven
- 97C. McVey
- 26M. Duah
- 5Kieran Sargeant
Midfielders
- 70A. Alvarado
- 20A. Godoy
- 12Gabriel Pirani
Forwards
- 10A. Dreyer
- 94C. Bakambu
- 90A. Pellegrino
Substitutes (9)
- 23S. Vines
- 1C. dos Santos
- 7M. Ingvartsen
- 25I. Pilcher
- 3D. Þórhallsson
- 6J. Tverskov
- 8O. Valakari
- 14B. B. Zamble
- 36David Mimbang
Goalkeeper
- 26A. Thomas
Defenders
- 85K. Kossa-Rienzi
- 16A. Roldan
- 25J. Ragen
- 5N. Tolo
Midfielders
- 31H. Dotson
- 7C. Roldan
- 27J. Ferreira
- 11A. Rusnák
- 13J. Morris
Forward
- 9D. Joveljić
Substitutes (9)
- 37S. Brunell
- 39S. Hawkins
- 45P. Kingston
- 90S. Gomez
- 24S. Frei
- 17P. Arriola
- 8C. Clark
- 4R. Sailor
- 81M. Bronnik
Official team sheets, updated ET.
Team news: injuries and suspensions
- OutE. AchouriLower-Body
- OutO. SoeLower-Body
- OutY. Gomez AndradeHamstring
- OutD. MusovskiHead
- OutN. PetkovicKnee
Show 2 more
- OutP. de La VegaCalf
- DoubtP. RothrockHamstring
From our match data feed · updated ET.
Key facts
- San Diego FC sit 12th in the Western Conference on 34 points and are winless in their past eight matches (0-4-4).[3]
- San Diego likely need around 10 points from their final four matches to reach the playoff places, so a loss would probably end their hopes.[2][3]
- Seattle are 7th in the West on 42 points and can clinch a playoff spot with a win plus favourable results elsewhere.[3]
- Seattle have conceded only 37 goals, fourth-best in the West, and allowed the equivalent of 3.0 goals per game over their last ten.[1]
- Seattle won four straight between 23 September and 10 October but have scored only one goal in their last two matches.[3]
- Seattle scored 14 goals in their last seven games, their best scoring stretch of the season.[2]
- San Diego lead MLS in possession but have struggled to turn it into results, and drew 2-2 at LA Galaxy last time out despite 64.7% possession.[3]
- No Seattle player has reached double-digit goals; Cristian Roldan and Paul Rothrock lead with five each.[3]
Sources
- foxsports.com – San Diego FC hosts the Seattle Sounders in conference play - FOX Sports (2026-10-23)
- sounderatheart.com – Everything you need to know about San Diego FC-Sounders - Sounder at Heart (2026-10-24)
- fieldlevelmedia.com – San Diego FC, running out of time in playoff push, clash with Sounders - Field Level Media (2026-10-24)
Match context
- Travel for Seattle Sounders FC
- 1,711 km
- Rest days
- San Diego FC 7Seattle Sounders FC 7
- Matches in the last 14 days: San Diego FC 2 · Seattle Sounders FC 2
- Weather at kick-off
- 20°C · wind 6 km/h
- Dry
- Referee
- Allen Chapman
- 3.0 yellow cards per game and 0.44 penalties per game over 18 games — below the MLS average (4.0 yellows).
- Coaches
- Mikey Varas
- San Diego FC, since Feb 2026
- B. Schmetzer
- Seattle Sounders FC, since Aug 2016
- Goals in this league
- MLS average: 3.25 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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