Houston Dynamo FC vs Minnesota United FC prediction
Full analysisTeam news, injuries and lineups read by our AI scouts, updated when the official lineups are out. How it works
KickoffHour pre-match forecast
Who wins?
Houston Dynamo to win: 44%, about 2 in 5
Goals call3+ goals 58% · bookies 57% · ✗ 0 goals
The Verdict
Our numbers stay close to the bookmakers', moving only a single point from home to away, because Houston's home strength and top-four push roughly balance Minnesota's desperation. The Dressing Room's view was not fully followed: it wanted a three-point shift toward Minnesota, but Houston's 8-3-4 home record and the counterarguments from The Coach and The Sceptic limit the move.
What our AI analysts say
1 of 3 think Minnesota United FC's chances are better than the bookmakers say. It does not make Minnesota United FC favourites.
The Coach
tactics and lineupsHouston's full-strength home XI edges Minnesota's playoff-desperate visitors.
Houston start Bond, Herrera, Guilherme and Bogusz (all reported out, not confirmed by the club) with only Resch suspended. Key duel: Guilherme's creation against a Minnesota back line that conceded seven in three games.
The Dressing Room
mood and pressureHouston's winless skid meets a hungry Minnesota side fighting for its playoff life.
Minnesota, five points off the last playoff place with four games left, need wins and just beat St.
Minnesota: slightly underrated
Low✗ Wrong The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongMarket has Houston right; Minnesota's desperation is the only edge worth noting.
The last meeting ended 2-2 on Oct. 10; Yeboah has 17 goals and scored in three straight. Goals look likely, with Houston a narrow favorite.
AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips. Who reads the game best
In short
Houston Dynamo FC host Minnesota United FC for the second time in two weeks, after a 2-2 draw in Saint Paul. Houston, 5th with 47 points, chase a top-four spot but sit on a six-match winless run, while 13th-placed Minnesota need points for the playoffs. Our numbers stay close to the market.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Houston Dynamo FC win or draw
- 70%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 74%
- Minnesota United FC win or draw
- 56%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 80%
- 3+ goals
- 58%
- 4+ goals
- 35%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 60%
- No
- 40%
We expect about 1.7 goals from Houston Dynamo FC and 1.3 from Minnesota United FC. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (11%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 9. Next: 2–1 (9%), 1–0 (8%), 1–2 (7%), 2–0 (7%).
How we got to these numbers
| Home | Draw | Away | 3+ goals | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bookmakers | 45% | 26% | 29% | 57% |
| Goals model | 50% | 25% | 25% | 56% |
| AI analysts | 46% | 26% | 28% | 58% |
| Our forecast | 44% | 26% | 30% | 58% |
Verdict: Our numbers stay close to the market because Houston's strong home record and top-four motivation are largely offset by their winless run and Minnesota's playoff urgency and Yeboah's form, with only a small nudge toward the away side.
Our forecast starts from the bookmakers' prices and moves only by what the news justifies, capped at 8 percentage points per outcome. Methodology
Prediction history
Frozen at kick-off. Version 2 is the one that counts in our track record. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Houston Dynamo FC: last 6
DDDLDL · 9 scored, 12 conceded
| 18 Oct | vs FC Dallas | 2–2 | D |
| 15 Oct | at San Diego | 3–3 | D |
| 11 Oct | at Minnesota United FC | 2–2 | D |
| 27 Sep | vs Sporting Kansas City | 0–2 | L |
| 20 Sep | vs FC Cincinnati | 2–2 | D |
| 13 Sep | at San Jose Earthquakes | 0–1 | L |
Last 5 at home: DLDWD
Minnesota United FC: last 6
WDDLLL · 12 scored, 16 conceded
| 17 Oct | vs St. Louis City | 3–2 | W |
| 15 Oct | at Colorado Rapids | 2–2 | D |
| 11 Oct | vs Houston Dynamo | 2–2 | D |
| 27 Sep | at Seattle Sounders | 1–3 | L |
| 20 Sep | vs Los Angeles Galaxy | 2–3 | L |
| 13 Sep | at St. Louis City | 2–4 | L |
Last 5 away: DLLLW
Season stats
| Houston Dynamo FC | Minnesota United FC | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.37 | Goals scored per game | 1.57 |
| 1.30 | Goals conceded per game | 1.83 |
| 1.27 | Scored per game at home | 1.27 |
| 1.47 | Scored per game away | 1.87 |
| 43% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 67% |
| 43% | Both teams scored | 73% |
| 37% | Clean sheets | 17% |
| 27% | Failed to score | 17% |
| 1.97 | Yellow cards per game | 1.97 |
League matches only, 30 games each.
When goals come
| Minutes | Houston Dynamo FC | Minnesota United FC |
|---|---|---|
| 0–15 min | ||
| 16–30 min | ||
| 31–45 min | ||
| 46–60 min | ||
| 61–75 min | ||
| 76–90 min |
MLS table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | FC Dallas | 31 | +11 | 54 | WDWLW |
| 3 | St. Louis City | 31 | +12 | 51 | LLDWW |
| 4 | San Jose Earthquakes | 31 | +7 | 48 | LDDDW |
| 5 | Houston Dynamo FC | 31 | +2 | 48 | DDDDL |
| 6 | Los Angeles FC | 31 | +15 | 46 | DWDLD |
| 7 | Seattle Sounders | 31 | +2 | 43 | DDLWW |
| 8 | Colorado Rapids | 31 | +1 | 42 | WDDDL |
| … | |||||
| 10 | Real Salt Lake | 31 | +0 | 39 | WWDLW |
| 11 | Portland Timbers | 31 | -4 | 37 | WDLDL |
| 12 | San Diego | 31 | -3 | 35 | DDDLD |
| 13 | Minnesota United FC | 31 | -8 | 35 | DWDDL |
| 14 | Austin | 31 | -17 | 34 | WLLLD |
| 15 | Sporting Kansas City | 31 | -40 | 22 | LLLDL |
Head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Houston Dynamo FC won 2, Minnesota United FC 2, 2 draws; 3.0 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Oct 2026 | Minnesota United FC | 2–2 | Houston Dynamo FC | Major League Soccer |
| 26 Jun 2025 | Minnesota United FC | 3–1 | Houston Dynamo FC | Major League Soccer |
| 15 May 2025 | Houston Dynamo FC | 2–0 | Minnesota United FC | Major League Soccer |
| 14 Jul 2024 | Houston Dynamo FC | 1–1 | Minnesota United FC | Major League Soccer |
| 14 Apr 2024 | Minnesota United FC | 1–2 | Houston Dynamo FC | Major League Soccer |
| 13 Jul 2023 | Houston Dynamo FC | 0–3 | Minnesota United FC | Major League Soccer |
Team news: lineups Confirmed
Goalkeeper
- 31J. Bond
Defenders
- 11L. Ennali
- 3Antônio Carlos
- 5Lucas Halter
- 21F. Negri
Midfielders
- 16H. Herrera
- 6Artur
- 19M. Bogusz
- 30A. Bouzat
- 20Guilherme
Forward
- 9L. Foster
Substitutes (9)
- 23D. McGuire
- 4M. Saracchi
- 37G. Rivera
- 18D. Samassékou
- 24A. Ibrahim
- 22M. Arana
- 26B. Gillingham
- 14D. Holmes
- 17N. Markanich
Goalkeeper
- 12D. Callender
Defenders
- 52Cherrion Valerius
- 28J. Díaz
- 23M. Duggan
Midfielders
- 21B. Hlongwane
- 25N. Triantis
- 30O. Gene
- 13A. Markanich
Forwards
- 16A. Jackson
- 9K. Yeboah
- 18M. Gonzalez
Substitutes (9)
- 8T. Chancalay
- 3K. Duncan
- 67C. Harvey
- 11M. Malone
- 26J. Pereyra
- 94Kayne Rizvanovich
- 5N. Romero
- 15M. Boxall
- 22Marcus Caldeira
Official team sheets, updated ET.
Team news: injuries and suspensions
- Susp.A. ReschSuspended
- OutFelipe AndradeInjury
- OutJ. MaurerConcussion
- OutA. SmirKnee
- OutP. StroudMuscle
- OutW. TrappConcussion
From our match data feed · updated ET.
Key facts
- Houston are 5th in the West with 47 points from 30 games and have secured a playoff spot, but remain two points shy of the top four for home-field advantage.[1][2]
- Minnesota are 13th with 34 points, five points behind the final playoff place with four matches remaining.[1]
- Houston have a strong home record of eight wins, four draws and three losses this season.[1][2]
- Minnesota have taken 18 points from 15 road matches and arrive with seven goals scored across their past three fixtures.[1]
- Kelvin Yeboah has a club-record 17 goals for Minnesota and has scored in three straight matches.[1][4]
- Guilherme has been involved in 26 of Houston's 41 goals this season, with 16 goals and 10 assists.[2][4]
- Houston goalkeeper Jonathan Bond has 10 clean sheets, two short of the club's single-season record.[2]
Sources
- deadspin.com – Minnesota United need even more resolve in rematch with Dynamo - Deadspin (2026-10-24)
- houstondynamofc.com – MATCH PREVIEW: Houston Dynamo FC host Minnesota United FC, look to climb Western Conference standings after securing playoff spot - Houston Dynamo FC (2026-10-23)
- beinsports.com – Olsen energised to build after signing Houston contract extension - beIN SPORTS (2026-10-23)
Off the pitch
Match context
- Stadium
- Shell Energy Stadium, Houston, Texas
- 22,661 seats · grass
- Travel for Minnesota United FC
- 1,699 km
- Rest days
- Houston Dynamo FC 7Minnesota United FC 7
- Matches in the last 14 days: Houston Dynamo FC 2 · Minnesota United FC 2
- Weather at kick-off
- 22°C · wind 9 km/h
- Dry
- Referee
- Tori Penso
- 3.7 yellow cards per game and no penalties over 12 games — below the MLS average (4.0 yellows).
- Coaches
- Ben Olsen
- Houston Dynamo FC, since Feb 2026
- C. Knowles
- Minnesota United FC, since Feb 2024
- Goals in this league
- MLS average: 3.25 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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