Newport County vs Chesterfield prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
Chesterfield to win: 48%, about 1 in 2
Goals call3+ goals 52% · bookies 52%
Bookmakers' prices with their margin removed; a stats preview does not adjust them with news.
The Verdict
All three lean Chesterfield, with the Coach and Dressing Room closest to the published 48% and the Sceptic trimming it slightly on their poor away run. Newport's draw-heavy season keeps the draw near 26%. On goals, the readings hover around the published 52% for over 2.5, with both-scores rates supporting an open game.
What our AI analysts say
1 of 3 think Newport County's chances are better than the bookmakers say. It does not make Newport County favourites.
The Coach
styles in the numbersChesterfield score 1.77 per game and both teams score in 69% of their matches, while Newport keep clean sheets only 31% of the time. Goals look likely at both ends.
The Dressing Room
the table and pressureChesterfield's play-off push meets Newport's mid-table drift
Chesterfield sit 7th on 19 points, inside the play-off places, while Newport are 16th on 15 with six draws in 13 games. Both had six days' rest.
The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongThe away lean looks fair, but Chesterfield's away form gives pause
Chesterfield's away record reads L D L W L with 8 conceded in 5, yet they are priced at 48%. Newport's home form (D W D W D, 7 scored, 5 conceded) and 26% home price look about right. The 52% over 2.5 line sits at the edge of Chesterfield's 54% season rate.
Newport: slightly underrated
Low Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
In short
Chesterfield are favourites at 48%, with Newport County on 26% and the draw on 26%. Newport County are 16th and Chesterfield 7th in the League Two. In their last five league games, Newport County won one and Chesterfield two.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Newport County win or draw
- 52%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 74%
- Chesterfield win or draw
- 74%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 76%
- 3+ goals
- 52%
- 4+ goals
- 30%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 54%
- No
- 46%
We expect about 1.1 goals from Newport County and 1.6 from Chesterfield. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (12%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 9. Next: 0–1 (10%), 1–2 (10%), 0–2 (8%), 1–0 (7%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 26% | 26% | 48% | Stats preview | #1780 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Newport County: last 6
LDDWDD · 6 scored, 6 conceded
| 24 Oct | at Cheltenham | 0–1 | L |
| 20 Oct | at Rotherham | 2–2 | D |
| 17 Oct | vs York | 1–1 | D |
| 10 Oct | vs Colchester | 1–0 | W |
| 6 Oct | vs Plymouth EFL Trophy | 2–2 | D |
| 3 Oct | at Gillingham | 0–0 | D |
Last 5 at home: DWDWD
Chesterfield: last 6
WDLDWL · 13 scored, 9 conceded
| 24 Oct | vs Crewe | 5–1 | W |
| 20 Oct | vs Colchester | 1–1 | D |
| 17 Oct | at Port Vale | 0–1 | L |
| 10 Oct | at Crawley Town | 2–2 | D |
| 3 Oct | vs Tranmere | 4–2 | W |
| 26 Sep | at Cheltenham | 1–2 | L |
Last 5 away: LDLWL
Season stats
| Newport County | Chesterfield | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.23 | Goals scored per game | 1.77 |
| 1.23 | Goals conceded per game | 1.31 |
| 1.67 | Scored per game at home | 2.29 |
| 0.86 | Scored per game away | 1.17 |
| 46% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 54% |
| 54% | Both teams scored | 69% |
| 31% | Clean sheets | 15% |
| 31% | Failed to score | 15% |
| 1.85 | Yellow cards per game | 1.92 |
League matches only, 13 games each.
When goals come
| Minutes | Newport County | Chesterfield |
|---|---|---|
| 0–15 min | ||
| 16–30 min | ||
| 31–45 min | ||
| 46–60 min | ||
| 61–75 min | ||
| 76–90 min |
League Two table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Crewe | 13 | +0 | 21 | LLWWW |
| 5 | York | 12 | +8 | 20 | WDDDW |
| 6 | Walsall | 12 | +7 | 19 | LWDDD |
| 7 | Chesterfield | 13 | +6 | 19 | WDLDW |
| 8 | Exeter City | 13 | +3 | 19 | WWDWW |
| 9 | Accrington ST | 13 | +6 | 18 | WDWDW |
| 10 | Shrewsbury | 13 | -4 | 18 | DWWLW |
| … | |||||
| 13 | Tranmere | 13 | +0 | 16 | DWLDL |
| 14 | Swindon Town | 13 | -3 | 16 | DWDLL |
| 15 | Bristol Rovers | 13 | -4 | 16 | DLLLL |
| 16 | Newport County | 13 | +0 | 15 | LDDWD |
| 17 | Rochdale | 13 | -7 | 15 | LDLDW |
| 18 | Fleetwood Town | 13 | -2 | 14 | LLWDL |
| 19 | Northampton | 11 | +0 | 13 | WLWDL |
Match context
- Stadium
- Rodney Parade, Casnewydd
- 11,676 seats · grass
- Rest days
- Newport County 6Chesterfield 6
- Matches in the last 14 days: Newport County 3 · Chesterfield 3
- Coaches
- H. Mullins
- Newport County, since Aug 2026
- P. Cook
- Chesterfield, since Feb 2022
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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