Swindon Town vs Rotherham United prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
Swindon to win: 41%, about 2 in 5
Goals call3+ goals 58% · bookies 58%
Bookmakers' prices with their margin removed; a stats preview does not adjust them with news.
The Verdict
The goals case is the strongest shared theme - poor defences and a 58% over line look well judged, with both teams scoring a live possibility.
What our AI analysts say
All three broadly agree with the bookmakers.
The Coach
styles in the numbersTwo leaky defences point to goals at both ends
Swindon concede 1.23 per game with only 15% clean sheets, while Rotherham concede 1.77 and keep just 8%. Both teams score in 60% of the published projections, and Swindon's six late concessions after the 76th minute suit Rotherham, who score throughout the first hour.
The Dressing Room
the table and pressurePressure sits on Rotherham near the bottom
Swindon are 14th with 16 points from 13 games; Rotherham are 22nd with 12, six draws among them, and sit close to the Relegation places (23-24). Swindon's home form reads D L D L L with 3 scored and 7 conceded, so nerves could cut both ways.
Rotherham: slightly overrated
Low The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongHome price looks slightly generous to Rotherham
But Swindon fail to score in 54% of matches and won only one of their last six, so the numbers look broadly fair, maybe a shade home-heavy.
Swindon: slightly overrated
Low Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
In short
Swindon Town are slight favourites at 41%, with Rotherham United on 33% and the draw on 26%. Swindon Town are 14th and Rotherham United 22nd in the League Two. In their last five league games, Swindon Town won one and Rotherham United none.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Swindon Town win or draw
- 67%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 74%
- Rotherham United win or draw
- 59%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 80%
- 3+ goals
- 58%
- 4+ goals
- 35%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 60%
- No
- 40%
We expect about 1.6 goals from Swindon Town and 1.4 from Rotherham United. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (11%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 9. Next: 2–1 (9%), 1–0 (8%), 1–2 (8%), 0–1 (7%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 52% | 24% | 24% | Stats preview (goals model, no bookmaker prices) | #1836 | |
| 2 | 41% | 26% | 33% | Prices moved | #2107 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Swindon Town: last 6
DWDLLD · 5 scored, 5 conceded
| 24 Oct | at Bristol Rovers | 0–0 | D |
| 20 Oct | at Barnet | 3–1 | W |
| 17 Oct | vs Walsall | 1–1 | D |
| 10 Oct | vs Crewe | 0–1 | L |
| 3 Oct | at Rochdale | 0–1 | L |
| 26 Sep | vs Accrington ST | 1–1 | D |
Last 5 at home: DLDLL
Rotherham United: last 6
DDLLLL · 6 scored, 16 conceded
| 24 Oct | vs Shrewsbury | 3–3 | D |
| 20 Oct | vs Newport County | 2–2 | D |
| 17 Oct | at Fleetwood Town | 0–2 | L |
| 10 Oct | vs Gillingham | 1–4 | L |
| 6 Oct | vs Bradford EFL Trophy | 0–4 | L |
| 3 Oct | at Exeter City | 0–1 | L |
Last 5 away: LLDWL
Season stats
| Swindon Town | Rotherham United | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.00 | Goals scored per game | 1.31 |
| 1.23 | Goals conceded per game | 1.77 |
| 1.67 | Scored per game at home | 1.86 |
| 0.43 | Scored per game away | 0.67 |
| 46% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 54% |
| 46% | Both teams scored | 69% |
| 15% | Clean sheets | 8% |
| 54% | Failed to score | 23% |
| 1.69 | Yellow cards per game | 2.23 |
League matches only, 13 games each.
When goals come
| Minutes | Swindon Town | Rotherham United |
|---|---|---|
| 0–15 min | ||
| 16–30 min | ||
| 31–45 min | ||
| 46–60 min | ||
| 61–75 min | ||
| 76–90 min |
League Two table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Grimsby | 13 | +3 | 17 | WDLLL |
| 12 | Gillingham | 13 | +0 | 17 | LDLWD |
| 13 | Tranmere | 13 | +0 | 16 | DWLDL |
| 14 | Swindon Town | 13 | -3 | 16 | DWDLL |
| 15 | Bristol Rovers | 13 | -4 | 16 | DLLLL |
| 16 | Newport County | 13 | +0 | 15 | LDDWD |
| 17 | Rochdale | 13 | -7 | 15 | LDLDW |
| … | |||||
| 19 | Northampton | 11 | +0 | 13 | WLWDL |
| 20 | Oldham | 12 | -4 | 12 | DLWDL |
| 21 | Colchester | 12 | -5 | 12 | LDDLD |
| 22 | Rotherham United | 13 | -6 | 12 | DDLLL |
| 23 | Port Vale | 11 | -6 | 12 | LDWWL |
| 24 | Crawley Town | 11 | -9 | 6 | DLLDL |
Match context
- Stadium
- The County Ground, Swindon, Wiltshire
- 15,728 seats · grass
- Rest days
- Swindon Town 7Rotherham United 7
- Matches in the last 14 days: Swindon Town 2 · Rotherham United 2
- Coaches
- Ian Holloway
- Swindon Town, since Aug 2026
- A. Bruce
- Rotherham United, since Aug 2026
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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