Colchester United vs Walsall prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
Wide open: no clear favourite (Colchester 37%)
Goals call3+ goals 53% · bookies 53%
Bookmakers' prices with their margin removed; a stats preview does not adjust them with news.
The Verdict
All three readings stay near the published 37-27-36 split: the Coach sees level expected goals at 1.4 each, the Dressing Room notes Walsall sit 6th with 19 points against Colchester's 12 in 21st, and the Sceptic thinks Walsall's edge is partly priced in.
Key factors
What our AI analysts say
All three broadly agree with the bookmakers.
The Coach
styles in the numbersTwo evenly matched attacks around 1.4 expected goals point to a tight, open game.
Both sides sit at 1.4 expected goals. Colchester score most late (3 of their goals in 76-90) while conceding heavily after the break (6 in 76-90); Walsall do their damage just after half-time with 6 goals in 46-60.
The Dressing Room
the table and pressureColchester's six draws show a hard-to-beat home side despite their lowly spot.
Colchester sit 21st with 12 points, six outside the play-offs places 4-7, but six draws in six is resilience, not collapse. Walsall are 6th on 19 points with the best away record here. With 7 days rest against 4, the home side may just outlast them for another home draw.
The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongWalsall's edge is real but the away pick may be slightly overdone.
Colchester's matches go over 2.5 just 33% of the time, so 53% over seems generous.
Walsall: slightly overrated
Low Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
In short
Colchester United are slight favourites at 37%, with Walsall on 36% and the draw on 27%. Colchester United are 21st and Walsall 6th in the League Two. In their last five league games, Colchester United won none and Walsall one.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Colchester United win or draw
- 64%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 73%
- Walsall win or draw
- 63%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 76%
- 3+ goals
- 52%
- 4+ goals
- 30%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 56%
- No
- 44%
We expect about 1.4 goals from Colchester United and 1.4 from Walsall. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (12%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 8. Next: 1–0 (9%), 0–1 (9%), 2–1 (8%), 1–2 (8%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 33% | 28% | 40% | Stats preview (goals model, no bookmaker prices) | #1752 | |
| 2 | 37% | 27% | 36% | Prices moved | #2090 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Colchester United: last 6
LDDLDD · 4 scored, 7 conceded
| 24 Oct | at Northampton | 0–2 | L |
| 20 Oct | at Chesterfield | 1–1 | D |
| 17 Oct | vs Exeter City | 0–0 | D |
| 10 Oct | at Newport County | 0–1 | L |
| 3 Oct | vs Luton EFL Trophy | 1–1 | D |
| 26 Sep | at Shrewsbury | 2–2 | D |
Last 5 at home: DDDDW
Walsall: last 6
LWDWDD · 11 scored, 9 conceded
| 26 Oct | vs Salford City | 2–4 | L |
| 20 Oct | vs Oldham | 3–0 | W |
| 17 Oct | at Swindon Town | 1–1 | D |
| 13 Oct | vs Fulham U21 EFL Trophy | 3–2 | W |
| 10 Oct | at Fleetwood Town | 1–1 | D |
| 26 Sep | at Tranmere | 1–1 | D |
Last 5 away: DDDDD
Season stats
| Colchester United | Walsall | |
|---|---|---|
| 0.92 | Goals scored per game | 1.50 |
| 1.33 | Goals conceded per game | 0.92 |
| 1.00 | Scored per game at home | 1.67 |
| 0.86 | Scored per game away | 1.33 |
| 33% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 42% |
| 58% | Both teams scored | 50% |
| 17% | Clean sheets | 50% |
| 33% | Failed to score | 25% |
| 1.33 | Yellow cards per game | 2.08 |
League matches only, 12 games each.
When goals come
| Minutes | Colchester United | Walsall |
|---|---|---|
| 0–15 min | ||
| 16–30 min | ||
| 31–45 min | ||
| 46–60 min | ||
| 61–75 min | ||
| 76–90 min |
League Two table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Cheltenham | 13 | +0 | 21 | WWLLL |
| 4 | Crewe | 13 | +0 | 21 | LLWWW |
| 5 | York | 12 | +8 | 20 | WDDDW |
| 6 | Walsall | 12 | +7 | 19 | LWDDD |
| 7 | Chesterfield | 13 | +6 | 19 | WDLDW |
| 8 | Exeter City | 13 | +3 | 19 | WWDWW |
| 9 | Accrington ST | 13 | +6 | 18 | WDWDW |
| … | |||||
| 18 | Fleetwood Town | 13 | -2 | 14 | LLWDL |
| 19 | Northampton | 11 | +0 | 13 | WLWDL |
| 20 | Oldham | 12 | -4 | 12 | DLWDL |
| 21 | Colchester United | 12 | -5 | 12 | LDDLD |
| 22 | Rotherham | 13 | -6 | 12 | DDLLL |
| 23 | Port Vale | 11 | -6 | 12 | LDWWL |
| 24 | Crawley Town | 11 | -9 | 6 | DLLDL |
Match context
- Stadium
- JobServe Community Stadium, Colchester, Essex
- 10,083 seats · grass
- Rest days
- Colchester United 7Walsall 4
- Matches in the last 14 days: Colchester United 2 · Walsall 2
- Coaches
- D. Cowley
- Colchester United, since Jan 2024
- Lee Grant
- Walsall, since Aug 2026
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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