Grimsby Town vs York City prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
Grimsby to win: 42%, about 2 in 5
Goals call3+ goals 58% · bookies 58%
Bookmakers' prices with their margin removed; a stats preview does not adjust them with news.
What our AI analysts say
All three broadly agree with the bookmakers.
The Coach
styles in the numbersBoth sides score regularly and concede enough to make goals likely.
Grimsby average 1.46 scored and 1.23 conceded per game, York 1.75 and 1.08, with both-teams-score at 54% and 67%. That points to a lively second half.
The Dressing Room
the table and pressureYork arrive higher and in form, but Grimsby's home record keeps this tight.
York sit 5th on 20 points from 12 games, inside the play-offs places, while Grimsby are 11th on 17 from 13. Grimsby's last six show two wins in six, but at home they have won two of the last five. Both had three games in 14 days and six days' rest, so fatigue is even.
The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongThe prices look broadly fair, though York's away form gives pause.
York are 5th with 21 goals in 12 games, yet away they have scored just 1.00 per game with a D L D L D run and 8 conceded in five. That sits oddly with 33% on the away win and 60% both-teams-score. Grimsby's 42% home price looks reasonable given their mixed recent run.
York: slightly overrated
Low Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
In short
Grimsby Town are slight favourites at 42%, with York City on 33% and the draw on 25%. Grimsby Town are 11th and York City 5th in the League Two. In their last five league games, Grimsby Town won one and York City two.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Grimsby Town win or draw
- 67%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 75%
- York City win or draw
- 58%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 80%
- 3+ goals
- 58%
- 4+ goals
- 35%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 60%
- No
- 40%
We expect about 1.6 goals from Grimsby Town and 1.4 from York City. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (11%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 9. Next: 2–1 (9%), 1–0 (8%), 1–2 (8%), 0–1 (7%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 42% | 25% | 33% | Stats preview | #1779 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Grimsby Town: last 6
WDLLDL · 7 scored, 8 conceded
| 24 Oct | at Gillingham | 4–1 | W |
| 20 Oct | at Rochdale | 2–2 | D |
| 17 Oct | vs Northampton | 0–2 | L |
| 10 Oct | at Port Vale | 0–1 | L |
| 6 Oct | vs Burton Albion EFL Trophy | 0–0 | D |
| 3 Oct | vs Shrewsbury | 1–2 | L |
Last 5 at home: LDLWW
York City: last 6
WDDDWD · 9 scored, 4 conceded
| 24 Oct | vs Port Vale | 2–0 | W |
| 20 Oct | vs Accrington ST | 1–1 | D |
| 17 Oct | at Newport County | 1–1 | D |
| 10 Oct | vs Northampton | 1–1 | D |
| 26 Sep | vs Gillingham | 3–0 | W |
| 22 Sep | vs Rotherham EFL Trophy | 1–1 | D |
Last 5 away: DLDLD
Season stats
| Grimsby Town | York City | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.46 | Goals scored per game | 1.75 |
| 1.23 | Goals conceded per game | 1.08 |
| 1.33 | Scored per game at home | 2.29 |
| 1.57 | Scored per game away | 1.00 |
| 54% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 42% |
| 54% | Both teams scored | 67% |
| 31% | Clean sheets | 25% |
| 23% | Failed to score | 8% |
| 1.92 | Yellow cards per game | 1.33 |
League matches only, 13 and 12 games.
When goals come
| Minutes | Grimsby Town | York City |
|---|---|---|
| 0–15 min | ||
| 16–30 min | ||
| 31–45 min | ||
| 46–60 min | ||
| 61–75 min | ||
| 76–90 min |
League Two table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Barnet | 11 | +8 | 22 | DLWWW |
| 3 | Cheltenham | 13 | +0 | 21 | WWLLL |
| 4 | Crewe | 13 | +0 | 21 | LLWWW |
| 5 | York City | 12 | +8 | 20 | WDDDW |
| 6 | Walsall | 12 | +7 | 19 | LWDDD |
| 7 | Chesterfield | 13 | +6 | 19 | WDLDW |
| 8 | Exeter City | 13 | +3 | 19 | WWDWW |
| 9 | Accrington ST | 13 | +6 | 18 | WDWDW |
| 10 | Shrewsbury | 13 | -4 | 18 | DWWLW |
| 11 | Grimsby Town | 13 | +3 | 17 | WDLLL |
| 12 | Gillingham | 13 | +0 | 17 | LDLWD |
| 13 | Tranmere | 13 | +0 | 16 | DWLDL |
| 14 | Swindon Town | 13 | -3 | 16 | DWDLL |
Match context
- Stadium
- Blundell Park, Cleethorpes, North East Lincolnshire
- 9,546 seats
- Rest days
- Grimsby Town 6York City 6
- Matches in the last 14 days: Grimsby Town 3 · York City 3
- Coaches
- D. Artell
- Grimsby Town, since Nov 2023
- S. Lindsey
- York City, since Aug 2026
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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