Tranmere Rovers vs Cheltenham Town prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
Tranmere to win: 52%, about 1 in 2
Goals call3+ goals 54% · bookies 54%
Bookmakers' prices with their margin removed; a stats preview does not adjust them with news.
The Verdict
All three readings lean Tranmere, in line with the published 52/25/24, with only modest push-back on the goal line. The goal-focused case points over 2.5, the sceptic's late-goal note suggests it may be nearer fair at 54%. Verdict: Tranmere favourites with goals in the game, and the market numbers broadly coherent.
What our AI analysts say
Our analysts are split: The Coach thinks Tranmere Rovers are underrated; The Sceptic thinks Cheltenham Town are underrated.
The Coach
styles in the numbersBoth sides leak goals, and Tranmere concede most often in the final 15 minutes
Their weakest spell is also late, conceding 7 in the final 15 minutes.
Tranmere: slightly underrated
More goalsLow The Dressing Room
the table and pressureCheltenham's form dips put pressure on a side eyeing the automatic promotion places
Cheltenham sit 3rd on 21 points, inside the automatic promotion places, but arrive off two league defeats and one win in five away games (L L D W D). The gap to the play-off places below is tight, so Tranmere have incentive to close it at home.
Cheltenham: slightly overrated
More goalsLow The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongTranmere at 52% may be slightly generous given Cheltenham's superior scoring rate
Cheltenham sit 3rd with the better attack, yet are priced at just 24%. Tranmere's draw-heavy six-game run and strong home form (L D D W W) still justify home favouritism, but 52% looks two or three points too high.
Cheltenham: slightly underrated
Fewer goalsLow Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
In short
Tranmere Rovers are favourites at 52%, with Cheltenham Town on 23% and the draw on 25%. Tranmere Rovers are 13th and Cheltenham Town 3rd in the League Two. In their last five league games, Tranmere Rovers won one and Cheltenham Town two.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Tranmere Rovers win or draw
- 76%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 75%
- Cheltenham Town win or draw
- 48%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 77%
- 3+ goals
- 54%
- 4+ goals
- 31%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 55%
- No
- 45%
We expect about 1.7 goals from Tranmere Rovers and 1.1 from Cheltenham Town. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (11%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 9. Next: 1–0 (10%), 2–1 (10%), 2–0 (9%), 0–1 (7%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 49% | 23% | 28% | Stats preview (goals model, no bookmaker prices) | #2084 | |
| 2 | 52% | 25% | 24% | Prices moved | #2172 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Tranmere Rovers: last 6
DWLDLD · 7 scored, 9 conceded
| 24 Oct | at Crawley Town | 1–1 | D |
| 20 Oct | at Northampton | 1–0 | W |
| 17 Oct | vs Barnet | 1–2 | L |
| 10 Oct | vs Rochdale | 1–1 | D |
| 3 Oct | at Chesterfield | 2–4 | L |
| 26 Sep | vs Walsall | 1–1 | D |
Last 5 at home: LDDWW
Cheltenham Town: last 6
WWLDLL · 8 scored, 12 conceded
| 24 Oct | vs Newport County | 1–0 | W |
| 20 Oct | vs Fleetwood Town | 4–2 | W |
| 17 Oct | at Oldham | 1–4 | L |
| 13 Oct | vs Tottenham Hotspur U21 EFL Trophy | 2–2 | D |
| 10 Oct | vs Salford City | 0–2 | L |
| 3 Oct | at Accrington ST | 0–2 | L |
Last 5 away: LLDWD
Season stats
| Tranmere Rovers | Cheltenham Town | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.23 | Goals scored per game | 1.69 |
| 1.23 | Goals conceded per game | 1.69 |
| 1.50 | Scored per game at home | 2.00 |
| 1.00 | Scored per game away | 1.33 |
| 31% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 69% |
| 62% | Both teams scored | 77% |
| 31% | Clean sheets | 8% |
| 15% | Failed to score | 15% |
| 2.15 | Yellow cards per game | 2.62 |
League matches only, 13 games each.
When goals come
| Minutes | Tranmere Rovers | Cheltenham Town |
|---|---|---|
| 0–15 min | ||
| 16–30 min | ||
| 31–45 min | ||
| 46–60 min | ||
| 61–75 min | ||
| 76–90 min |
League Two table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Salford City | 13 | +9 | 28 | WWWWW |
| 2 | Barnet | 11 | +8 | 22 | DLWWW |
| 3 | Cheltenham Town | 13 | +0 | 21 | WWLLL |
| 4 | Crewe | 13 | +0 | 21 | LLWWW |
| 5 | York | 12 | +8 | 20 | WDDDW |
| 6 | Walsall | 12 | +7 | 19 | LWDDD |
| … | |||||
| 10 | Shrewsbury | 13 | -4 | 18 | DWWLW |
| 11 | Grimsby | 13 | +3 | 17 | WDLLL |
| 12 | Gillingham | 13 | +0 | 17 | LDLWD |
| 13 | Tranmere Rovers | 13 | +0 | 16 | DWLDL |
| 14 | Swindon Town | 13 | -3 | 16 | DWDLL |
| 15 | Bristol Rovers | 13 | -4 | 16 | DLLLL |
| 16 | Newport County | 13 | +0 | 15 | LDDWD |
Match context
- Stadium
- Prenton Park, Birkenhead, Merseyside
- 16,567 seats · grass
- Rest days
- Tranmere Rovers 7Cheltenham Town 7
- Matches in the last 14 days: Tranmere Rovers 2 · Cheltenham Town 2
- Coaches
- D. Clarke
- Tranmere Rovers, since Aug 2026
- S. Cotterill
- Cheltenham Town, since Aug 2026
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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