Accrington Stanley vs Northampton Town prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
Accrington Stanley to win: 45%, about 2 in 5
Goals call2 goals or fewer 57% · bookies 57%
Bookmakers' prices with their margin removed; a stats preview does not adjust them with news.
The Verdict
All three lean the same way: Accrington look fairly priced at 45% for the win, with the Dressing Room slightly warmer on them and the Coach slightly cooler. Northampton's goalscoring weakness at 0.73 per game keeps the scepticism on totals, not the 1X2. The 43% for over 2.5 is supported, with the upside cases mainly reliant on Accrington after the interval.
What our AI analysts say
Our analysts are split: The Coach thinks Northampton Town are underrated; The Dressing Room thinks Accrington Stanley are underrated.
The Coach
styles in the numbersAccrington's home scoring meets Northampton's blunt attack - goals mostly home-made.
Accrington average 2.00 goals per home game and score heavily either side of half-time (7 in 0-15, 7 in 46-60). Northampton score just 0.80 away per game, with none in the 16-30 or 61-75 periods, and have failed to score in 45% of matches.
Northampton: slightly underrated
Fewer goalsLow The Dressing Room
the table and pressureAccrington have the points, the form and the home edge here.
Accrington sit 9th on 18 points from 13 games against Northampton 19th on 13 from 11. Both had seven days' rest, so freshness is even.
Accrington Stanley: clearly underrated
Med The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongMarket reads well, but the 2.5 line leans on Accrington, not Northampton.
The 1X2 looks fair. But Northampton have 0% of matches over 2.5 goals and score 0.73 per game, so the 43% over rate rests almost entirely on Accrington scoring at home. Both teams score 27% for Northampton versus a published 48% - that gap makes over 2.5 look a shade high.
Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
In short
Accrington Stanley are favourites at 45%, with Northampton Town on 26% and the draw on 29%. Accrington Stanley are 9th and Northampton Town 19th in the League Two. In their last five league games, Accrington Stanley won three and Northampton Town two.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Accrington Stanley win or draw
- 74%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 71%
- Northampton Town win or draw
- 55%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 69%
- 3+ goals
- 43%
- 4+ goals
- 22%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 48%
- No
- 52%
We expect about 1.4 goals from Accrington Stanley and 1.0 from Northampton Town. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (13%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 8. Next: 1–0 (13%), 0–1 (9%), 0–0 (9%), 2–1 (9%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 45% | 29% | 26% | Stats preview | #1902 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Accrington Stanley: last 6
WDWDDW · 12 scored, 3 conceded
| 24 Oct | at Rochdale | 5–0 | W |
| 20 Oct | at York | 1–1 | D |
| 17 Oct | vs Gillingham | 3–1 | W |
| 10 Oct | at Oldham | 0–0 | D |
| 6 Oct | vs Salford City EFL Trophy | 1–1 | D |
| 3 Oct | vs Cheltenham | 2–0 | W |
Last 5 at home: WDWDD
Northampton Town: last 6
WLWDLL · 6 scored, 5 conceded
| 24 Oct | vs Colchester | 2–0 | W |
| 20 Oct | vs Tranmere | 0–1 | L |
| 17 Oct | at Grimsby | 2–0 | W |
| 10 Oct | at York | 1–1 | D |
| 6 Oct | at Cambridge United EFL Trophy | 1–2 | L |
| 19 Sep | vs Rotherham | 0–1 | L |
Last 5 away: WDLLD
Season stats
| Accrington Stanley | Northampton Town | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.69 | Goals scored per game | 0.73 |
| 1.23 | Goals conceded per game | 0.73 |
| 2.00 | Scored per game at home | 0.67 |
| 1.43 | Scored per game away | 0.80 |
| 54% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 0% |
| 62% | Both teams scored | 27% |
| 31% | Clean sheets | 36% |
| 23% | Failed to score | 45% |
| 2.85 | Yellow cards per game | 1.45 |
League matches only, 13 and 11 games.
When goals come
| Minutes | Accrington Stanley | Northampton Town |
|---|---|---|
| 0–15 min | ||
| 16–30 min | ||
| 31–45 min | ||
| 46–60 min | ||
| 61–75 min | ||
| 76–90 min |
League Two table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Walsall | 12 | +7 | 19 | LWDDD |
| 7 | Chesterfield | 13 | +6 | 19 | WDLDW |
| 8 | Exeter City | 13 | +3 | 19 | WWDWW |
| 9 | Accrington Stanley | 13 | +6 | 18 | WDWDW |
| 10 | Shrewsbury | 13 | -4 | 18 | DWWLW |
| 11 | Grimsby | 13 | +3 | 17 | WDLLL |
| 12 | Gillingham | 13 | +0 | 17 | LDLWD |
| … | |||||
| 16 | Newport County | 13 | +0 | 15 | LDDWD |
| 17 | Rochdale | 13 | -7 | 15 | LDLDW |
| 18 | Fleetwood Town | 13 | -2 | 14 | LLWDL |
| 19 | Northampton Town | 11 | +0 | 13 | WLWDL |
| 20 | Oldham | 12 | -4 | 12 | DLWDL |
| 21 | Colchester | 12 | -5 | 12 | LDDLD |
| 22 | Rotherham | 13 | -6 | 12 | DDLLL |
Match context
- Stadium
- Wham Stadium, Accrington, Lancashire
- 5,397 seats · grass
- Rest days
- Accrington Stanley 7Northampton Town 7
- Matches in the last 14 days: Accrington Stanley 2 · Northampton Town 2
- Coaches
- J. Doolan
- Accrington Stanley, since Mar 2024
- C. Hogg
- Northampton Town, since Aug 2026
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
18+ · Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. If you bet, bet only what you can afford to lose. Responsible gambling
