Salford City vs Exeter City prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
Salford to win: 60%, about 3 in 5
Goals call3+ goals 55% · bookies 55%
Bookmakers' prices with their margin removed; a stats preview does not adjust them with news.
The Verdict
All three lean clearly towards Salford, in line with the published 60% home price, with the table lead and five wins in six backing the market. The one doubt is goals: Exeter's miserly defence and Salford's modest home scoring suggest the 55% over 2.5 line may be slightly generous, so a lower-scoring home win is the likeliest shape.
Key factors
What our AI analysts say
1 of 3 think Salford City's chances are better than the bookmakers say.
The Coach
styles in the numbersSalford's late scoring surge meets Exeter's leaky second-half defence.
Salford score 8 of their 23 goals in the last 15 minutes, while Exeter concede 3 of their 7 after the hour. Exeter score just 0.33 per game away and fail to score 46% of the time, so the hosts' 1.9 expected goals looks well earned.
The Dressing Room
the table and pressureTop-of-the-table hosts with momentum against a mid-table visitor.
Salford lead the league on 28 points from 13 games and have won five of their last six. Exeter sit 8th on 19 points, six back, and have taken just one win in their last five away games. Salford also have four days' rest to Exeter's seven.
Salford: slightly underrated
Low The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongHome price looks fair, but the goals line may be a touch high.
Exeter concede only 0.54 per game with 54% clean sheets, and 15% of their matches go over 2.5. Salford score just 1.17 per game at home despite 2.29 away. The 55% over line leans on Salford's away form more than their home record.
Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
In short
Salford City are clear favourites at 60%, with Exeter City on 18% and the draw on 22%. Salford City are 1st and Exeter City 8th in the League Two. In their last five league games, Salford City won five and Exeter City four.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Salford City win or draw
- 82%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 78%
- Exeter City win or draw
- 40%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 78%
- 3+ goals
- 55%
- 4+ goals
- 32%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 52%
- No
- 48%
We expect about 1.9 goals from Salford City and 0.9 from Exeter City. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–0 (11%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 9. Next: 2–0 (11%), 1–1 (10%), 2–1 (10%), 3–0 (7%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 48% | 30% | 22% | Stats preview (goals model, no bookmaker prices) | #1837 | |
| 2 | 60% | 22% | 18% | Prices moved | #2108 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Salford City: last 6
WWWWDW · 12 scored, 5 conceded
| 26 Oct | at Walsall | 4–2 | W |
| 20 Oct | at Bristol Rovers | 2–1 | W |
| 17 Oct | vs Crawley Town | 2–1 | W |
| 10 Oct | at Cheltenham | 2–0 | W |
| 6 Oct | at Accrington ST EFL Trophy | 1–1 | D |
| 3 Oct | vs Fleetwood Town | 1–0 | W |
Last 5 at home: WWLWW
Exeter City: last 6
WWDWDW · 8 scored, 3 conceded
| 24 Oct | vs Fleetwood Town | 2–1 | W |
| 20 Oct | vs Crewe | 2–0 | W |
| 17 Oct | at Colchester | 0–0 | D |
| 10 Oct | at Shrewsbury | 1–0 | W |
| 6 Oct | vs Oxford United EFL Trophy | 2–2 | D |
| 3 Oct | vs Rotherham | 1–0 | W |
Last 5 away: DWLDL
Season stats
| Salford City | Exeter City | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.77 | Goals scored per game | 0.77 |
| 1.08 | Goals conceded per game | 0.54 |
| 1.17 | Scored per game at home | 1.14 |
| 2.29 | Scored per game away | 0.33 |
| 54% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 15% |
| 54% | Both teams scored | 23% |
| 31% | Clean sheets | 54% |
| 15% | Failed to score | 46% |
| 1.54 | Yellow cards per game | 1.77 |
League matches only, 13 games each.
When goals come
| Minutes | Salford City | Exeter City |
|---|---|---|
| 0–15 min | ||
| 16–30 min | ||
| 31–45 min | ||
| 46–60 min | ||
| 61–75 min | ||
| 76–90 min |
League Two table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Salford City | 13 | +9 | 28 | WWWWW |
| 2 | Barnet | 11 | +8 | 22 | DLWWW |
| 3 | Cheltenham | 13 | +0 | 21 | WWLLL |
| 4 | Crewe | 13 | +0 | 21 | LLWWW |
| 5 | York | 12 | +8 | 20 | WDDDW |
| 6 | Walsall | 12 | +7 | 19 | LWDDD |
| 7 | Chesterfield | 13 | +6 | 19 | WDLDW |
| 8 | Exeter City | 13 | +3 | 19 | WWDWW |
| 9 | Accrington ST | 13 | +6 | 18 | WDWDW |
| 10 | Shrewsbury | 13 | -4 | 18 | DWWLW |
| 11 | Grimsby | 13 | +3 | 17 | WDLLL |
Match context
- Stadium
- The Peninsula Stadium, Salford, Greater Manchester
- 5,100 seats · grass
- Rest days
- Salford City 4Exeter City 7
- Matches in the last 14 days: Salford City 2 · Exeter City 2
- Coaches
- P. Cklamovski
- Salford City, since Aug 2026
- M. Taylor
- Exeter City, since Aug 2026
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
18+ · Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. If you bet, bet only what you can afford to lose. Responsible gambling
