Oldham Athletic vs Crawley Town prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
Oldham to win: 57%, about 3 in 5
Goals call3+ goals 63% · bookies 63%
Bookmakers' prices with their margin removed; a stats preview does not adjust them with news.
The Verdict
A competitive, open match with the home side favoured is the overall picture.
What our AI analysts say
All three broadly agree with the bookmakers.
The Coach
styles in the numbersTwo leaky defences point to goals, with Oldham's home scoring doing the damage.
Oldham average 1.83 goals scored per home game against a Crawley side conceding 1.91 per game. Crawley keep no clean sheets, while Oldham are shut out in 33% of matches, so both teams to score at 60% fits. Oldham concede most before half-time, Crawley concede heavily around minutes 31-60.
The Dressing Room
the table and pressureOldham sit 20th on 12 points from 12 games; Crawley are 24th, 23-24 is the relegation zone, with 6 points from 11. Crawley's away run reads L L L L D. Both have had 7 days' rest, so freshness is even. Oldham's last home league win was 4-1 over Cheltenham, and their home form is W W D L W.
The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongThe 57% on Oldham looks fair, though the away prices may undersell Crawley's scoring.
Crawley score 1.20 per game away, more than Oldham's 0.50 on the road, and both teams scored in 73% of their league games, so 60% both-teams-score looks if anything low. Over 2.5 at 63% sits well against 50% and 55% season rates.
Oldham: slightly overrated
Low Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
In short
Oldham Athletic are favourites at 57%, with Crawley Town on 21% and the draw on 22%. Oldham Athletic are 20th and Crawley Town 24th in the League Two. In their last five league games, Oldham Athletic won one and Crawley Town none.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Oldham Athletic win or draw
- 79%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 78%
- Crawley Town win or draw
- 43%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 83%
- 3+ goals
- 63%
- 4+ goals
- 41%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 60%
- No
- 40%
We expect about 2.1 goals from Oldham Athletic and 1.2 from Crawley Town. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 2–1 (10%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 10. Next: 1–1 (10%), 2–0 (8%), 1–0 (8%), 3–1 (7%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 57% | 22% | 21% | Stats preview | #1761 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Oldham Athletic: last 6
DLWWDL · 10 scored, 11 conceded
| 24 Oct | at Barnet | 1–1 | D |
| 20 Oct | at Walsall | 0–3 | L |
| 17 Oct | vs Cheltenham | 4–1 | W |
| 13 Oct | vs Leeds United U21 EFL Trophy | 4–2 | W |
| 10 Oct | vs Accrington ST | 0–0 | D |
| 26 Sep | vs Salford City | 1–4 | L |
Last 5 at home: WWDLW
Crawley Town: last 6
DLLDWL · 11 scored, 12 conceded
| 24 Oct | vs Tranmere | 1–1 | D |
| 20 Oct | vs Shrewsbury | 2–3 | L |
| 17 Oct | at Salford City | 1–2 | L |
| 10 Oct | vs Chesterfield | 2–2 | D |
| 6 Oct | vs Bromley EFL Trophy | 4–0 | W |
| 22 Sep | at Milton Keynes Dons EFL Trophy | 1–4 | L |
Last 5 away: LLLLD
Season stats
| Oldham Athletic | Crawley Town | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.17 | Goals scored per game | 1.09 |
| 1.50 | Goals conceded per game | 1.91 |
| 1.83 | Scored per game at home | 1.00 |
| 0.50 | Scored per game away | 1.20 |
| 50% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 55% |
| 50% | Both teams scored | 73% |
| 25% | Clean sheets | 0% |
| 33% | Failed to score | 27% |
| 1.50 | Yellow cards per game | 2.45 |
League matches only, 12 and 11 games.
When goals come
| Minutes | Oldham Athletic | Crawley Town |
|---|---|---|
| 0–15 min | ||
| 16–30 min | ||
| 31–45 min | ||
| 46–60 min | ||
| 61–75 min | ||
| 76–90 min |
League Two table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Rochdale | 13 | -7 | 15 | LDLDW |
| 18 | Fleetwood Town | 13 | -2 | 14 | LLWDL |
| 19 | Northampton | 11 | +0 | 13 | WLWDL |
| 20 | Oldham Athletic | 12 | -4 | 12 | DLWDL |
| 21 | Colchester | 12 | -5 | 12 | LDDLD |
| 22 | Rotherham | 13 | -6 | 12 | DDLLL |
| 23 | Port Vale | 11 | -6 | 12 | LDWWL |
| 24 | Crawley Town | 11 | -9 | 6 | DLLDL |
Match context
- Stadium
- Boundary Park, Oldham, Greater Manchester
- 10,638 seats · grass
- Rest days
- Oldham Athletic 7Crawley Town 7
- Matches in the last 14 days: Oldham Athletic 2 · Crawley Town 2
- Coaches
- M. Mellon
- Oldham Athletic, since Oct 2023
- Colin Kazım-Richards
- Crawley Town, since Oct 2026
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
18+ · Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. If you bet, bet only what you can afford to lose. Responsible gambling
