Port Vale vs Rochdale prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
Port Vale to win: 57%, about 3 in 5
Goals call2 goals or fewer 51% · bookies 51%
Bookmakers' prices with their margin removed; a stats preview does not adjust them with news.
The Verdict
The Coach and Sceptic lean under 2.5 given Vale's miserly home defence, while the Dressing Room sees a standard home edge. A tight, low-scoring home win is the consensus shape.
What our AI analysts say
All three broadly agree with the bookmakers.
The Coach
styles in the numbersVale's home defence meets Rochdale's leaky travels - a low-scoring home win profile.
Port Vale have kept five home clean sheets in a row, conceding none, while scoring just 0.80 per game at home. Rochdale concede 1.69 per game and 62% of their matches go over 2.5, but they score only 0.83 away. Vale concede most after the break (7 of 11 goals after half-time).
The Dressing Room
the table and pressureTwo struggling sides, but Vale's home run and rest parity give them the edge.
Port Vale sit 23rd with 12 points from 11 games, yet have won four and drawn one of their last five at home. Rochdale are 17th on 15 points from 13, fresh from a 0-5 home defeat. Both teams have had 6 days' rest after 3 games in 14 days.
Port Vale: slightly overrated
Low The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongThe home win price looks fair, but the under lean on goals may be too strong.
Vale's 57% seems right given their W W W W D home run, though their 6 goals in 11 games is poor.
Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
In short
Port Vale are favourites at 57%, with Rochdale on 19% and the draw on 24%. Port Vale are 23rd and Rochdale 17th in the League Two. In their last five league games, Port Vale won two and Rochdale one.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Port Vale win or draw
- 82%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 76%
- Rochdale win or draw
- 43%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 74%
- 3+ goals
- 49%
- 4+ goals
- 27%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 48%
- No
- 52%
We expect about 1.7 goals from Port Vale and 0.9 from Rochdale. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–0 (13%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 8. Next: 1–1 (11%), 2–0 (11%), 2–1 (10%), 0–0 (7%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 57% | 24% | 18% | Stats preview | #1781 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Port Vale: last 6
LDWWWD · 6 scored, 4 conceded
| 24 Oct | at York | 0–2 | L |
| 20 Oct | at Gillingham | 1–1 | D |
| 17 Oct | vs Chesterfield | 1–0 | W |
| 10 Oct | vs Grimsby | 1–0 | W |
| 6 Oct | vs Mansfield Town EFL Trophy | 2–0 | W |
| 22 Sep | at Chesterfield EFL Trophy | 1–1 | D |
Last 5 at home: WWWWD
Rochdale: last 6
LDLDLW · 6 scored, 16 conceded
| 24 Oct | vs Accrington ST | 0–5 | L |
| 20 Oct | vs Grimsby | 2–2 | D |
| 17 Oct | at Crewe | 2–3 | L |
| 10 Oct | at Tranmere | 1–1 | D |
| 6 Oct | at Huddersfield EFL Trophy | 0–5 | L |
| 3 Oct | vs Swindon Town | 1–0 | W |
Last 5 away: LDLWD
Season stats
| Port Vale | Rochdale | |
|---|---|---|
| 0.55 | Goals scored per game | 1.15 |
| 1.09 | Goals conceded per game | 1.69 |
| 0.80 | Scored per game at home | 1.43 |
| 0.33 | Scored per game away | 0.83 |
| 9% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 62% |
| 27% | Both teams scored | 46% |
| 36% | Clean sheets | 31% |
| 45% | Failed to score | 31% |
| 2.00 | Yellow cards per game | 1.85 |
League matches only, 11 and 13 games.
When goals come
| Minutes | Port Vale | Rochdale |
|---|---|---|
| 0–15 min | ||
| 16–30 min | ||
| 31–45 min | ||
| 46–60 min | ||
| 61–75 min | ||
| 76–90 min |
League Two table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Swindon Town | 13 | -3 | 16 | DWDLL |
| 15 | Bristol Rovers | 13 | -4 | 16 | DLLLL |
| 16 | Newport County | 13 | +0 | 15 | LDDWD |
| 17 | Rochdale | 13 | -7 | 15 | LDLDW |
| 18 | Fleetwood Town | 13 | -2 | 14 | LLWDL |
| 19 | Northampton | 11 | +0 | 13 | WLWDL |
| 20 | Oldham | 12 | -4 | 12 | DLWDL |
| 21 | Colchester | 12 | -5 | 12 | LDDLD |
| 22 | Rotherham | 13 | -6 | 12 | DDLLL |
| 23 | Port Vale | 11 | -6 | 12 | LDWWL |
| 24 | Crawley Town | 11 | -9 | 6 | DLLDL |
Match context
- Stadium
- Vale Park, Stoke-on-Trent, Staffordshire
- 19,052 seats · grass
- Rest days
- Port Vale 6Rochdale 6
- Matches in the last 14 days: Port Vale 3 · Rochdale 3
- Coaches
- J. Brady
- Port Vale, since Aug 2026
- Ian Watson
- Rochdale, since Aug 2026
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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