Shrewsbury Town vs Gillingham prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
Shrewsbury to win: 49%, about 1 in 2
Goals call2 goals or fewer 54% · bookies 54%
Bookmakers' prices with their margin removed; a stats preview does not adjust them with news.
The Verdict
The three readings suggest a closely fought League Two encounter between two mid-table sides. While the published probabilities favour Shrewsbury slightly, the data points towards a high-scoring affair, with Gillingham's season statistics suggesting a higher likelihood of goals than initially presented.
What our AI analysts say
All three broadly agree with the bookmakers.
The Coach
styles in the numbersShrewsbury's high concession rate in the final 15 minutes could be decisive.
Shrewsbury Town conceded 8 goals in the 76-90 period this season. Gillingham has also shown strong scoring periods, notably netting 5 goals between the 46-60 minutes. Both teams have a high BTTS rate of 49% and 54% respectively.
The Dressing Room
the table and pressureThe mid-table nature of both sides suggests a tightly contested fixture.
Shrewsbury Town sits in 10th place with 18 points from 13 games. Gillingham is 12th with 17 points from 13 games. Both sides have had similar recent form, with Shrewsbury recording 5 wins and Gillingham 4 wins.
The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongGillingham's season scoring record suggests the total goals line might be too low.
Gillingham has a season match over 2.5 goals rate of 54%, which is higher than the published 46%. Shrewsbury's season record shows a 46% match over 2.5 goals. Both teams have failed to score in 31% of their games.
Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
In short
Shrewsbury Town are favourites at 49%, with Gillingham on 23% and the draw on 28%. Shrewsbury Town are 10th and Gillingham 12th in the League Two. In their last five league games, Shrewsbury Town won three and Gillingham one.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Shrewsbury Town win or draw
- 77%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 72%
- Gillingham win or draw
- 51%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 71%
- 3+ goals
- 46%
- 4+ goals
- 24%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 49%
- No
- 51%
We expect about 1.5 goals from Shrewsbury Town and 1.0 from Gillingham. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–0 (12%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 8. Next: 1–1 (12%), 2–0 (9%), 2–1 (9%), 0–0 (8%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 44% | 24% | 31% | Stats preview (goals model, no bookmaker prices) | #1888 | |
| 2 | 49% | 28% | 23% | Prices moved | #2128 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Shrewsbury Town: last 6
DWWLLW · 9 scored, 9 conceded
| 24 Oct | at Rotherham | 3–3 | D |
| 20 Oct | at Crawley Town | 3–2 | W |
| 17 Oct | vs Bristol Rovers | 1–0 | W |
| 10 Oct | vs Exeter City | 0–1 | L |
| 6 Oct | vs Stockport County EFL Trophy | 0–2 | L |
| 3 Oct | at Grimsby | 2–1 | W |
Last 5 at home: WLLDW
Gillingham: last 6
LDLWWD · 11 scored, 12 conceded
| 24 Oct | vs Grimsby | 1–4 | L |
| 20 Oct | vs Port Vale | 1–1 | D |
| 17 Oct | at Accrington ST | 1–3 | L |
| 13 Oct | vs Brighton U21 EFL Trophy | 4–3 | W |
| 10 Oct | at Rotherham | 4–1 | W |
| 3 Oct | vs Newport County | 0–0 | D |
Last 5 away: LWLWD
Season stats
| Shrewsbury Town | Gillingham | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.23 | Goals scored per game | 1.38 |
| 1.54 | Goals conceded per game | 1.38 |
| 1.17 | Scored per game at home | 1.14 |
| 1.29 | Scored per game away | 1.67 |
| 46% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 54% |
| 46% | Both teams scored | 54% |
| 23% | Clean sheets | 31% |
| 31% | Failed to score | 31% |
| 2.77 | Yellow cards per game | 2.62 |
League matches only, 13 games each.
When goals come
| Minutes | Shrewsbury Town | Gillingham |
|---|---|---|
| 0–15 min | ||
| 16–30 min | ||
| 31–45 min | ||
| 46–60 min | ||
| 61–75 min | ||
| 76–90 min |
League Two table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Chesterfield | 13 | +6 | 19 | WDLDW |
| 8 | Exeter City | 13 | +3 | 19 | WWDWW |
| 9 | Accrington ST | 13 | +6 | 18 | WDWDW |
| 10 | Shrewsbury Town | 13 | -4 | 18 | DWWLW |
| 11 | Grimsby | 13 | +3 | 17 | WDLLL |
| 12 | Gillingham | 13 | +0 | 17 | LDLWD |
| 13 | Tranmere | 13 | +0 | 16 | DWLDL |
| 14 | Swindon Town | 13 | -3 | 16 | DWDLL |
| 15 | Bristol Rovers | 13 | -4 | 16 | DLLLL |
Match context
- Stadium
- The Croud Meadow, Shrewsbury, Shropshire
- 9,875 seats · grass
- Rest days
- Shrewsbury Town 7Gillingham 7
- Matches in the last 14 days: Shrewsbury Town 2 · Gillingham 2
- Coaches
- G. Cowan
- Shrewsbury Town, since Sep 2026
- G. Ainsworth
- Gillingham, since Mar 2025
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
18+ · Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. If you bet, bet only what you can afford to lose. Responsible gambling
