Barnet vs York City prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
Barnet to win: 47%, about 1 in 2
Goals call3+ goals 63% · bookies 63%
Bookmakers' prices with their margin removed; a stats preview does not adjust them with news.
The Verdict
All three lean towards a Barnet win close to the published 47%, with the Coach and Dressing Room seeing modest goal upside and the Sceptic arguing York's away record makes 63% for over 2.5 too high. The shared picture: a competitive, high-stakes meeting between 2nd and 5th with Barnet's late-goal habit the key angle.
What our AI analysts say
1 of 3 think a draw is underrated.
The Coach
styles in the numbersBoth sides attack well; Barnet's late goals against York's leaky defence favour goals.
Barnet score 2.18 per game with both teams scoring in 100% of their league matches and no clean sheets. Ten of their 24 goals come in the last 15 minutes. York concede 1.08 per game but only 1.00 away, yet 10 of Barnet's home goals have come late.
The Dressing Room
the table and pressureTwo promotion chasers, evenly loaded, but Barnet's wobble adds edge.
Barnet sit 2nd on 22 points from 11 games, inside the automatic promotion places, but have taken just one point from their last two league games. York are 5th on 20 from 12, in the play-off places, unbeaten in four.
The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongThe 63% over line looks too rich against York's away profile.
The head-to-head's 3.7 goals per game and Barnet's 82% over rate pull the other way, but I make the over closer to even than 63%.
Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
This is a data-only read
Our AI scouts have read the numbers for this match, not the team news.
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In short
Barnet are favourites at 47%, with York City on 29% and the draw on 24%. Barnet are 2nd and York City 5th in the League Two. In their last five league games, Barnet won three and York City two.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Barnet win or draw
- 71%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 76%
- York City win or draw
- 53%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 83%
- 3+ goals
- 63%
- 4+ goals
- 41%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 64%
- No
- 36%
We expect about 1.8 goals from Barnet and 1.4 from York City. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (10%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 10. Next: 2–1 (9%), 1–0 (7%), 1–2 (7%), 2–0 (7%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. The full analysis with team news can be requested on this page before kick-off. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 47% | 24% | 29% | Stats preview | #1664 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Barnet: last 6
DLWWDW · 10 scored, 7 conceded
| 24 Oct | vs Oldham | 1–1 | D |
| 20 Oct | vs Swindon Town | 1–3 | L |
| 17 Oct | at Tranmere | 2–1 | W |
| 10 Oct | at Bristol Rovers | 3–1 | W |
| 6 Oct | at AFC Wimbledon EFL Trophy | 0–0 | D |
| 19 Sep | vs Fleetwood Town | 3–1 | W |
Last 5 at home: DLWWD
York City: last 6
WDDDWD · 9 scored, 4 conceded
| 24 Oct | vs Port Vale | 2–0 | W |
| 20 Oct | vs Accrington ST | 1–1 | D |
| 17 Oct | at Newport County | 1–1 | D |
| 10 Oct | vs Northampton | 1–1 | D |
| 26 Sep | vs Gillingham | 3–0 | W |
| 22 Sep | vs Rotherham EFL Trophy | 1–1 | D |
Last 5 away: DLDLD
Season stats
| Barnet | York City | |
|---|---|---|
| 2.18 | Goals scored per game | 1.75 |
| 1.45 | Goals conceded per game | 1.08 |
| 2.00 | Scored per game at home | 2.29 |
| 2.40 | Scored per game away | 1.00 |
| 82% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 42% |
| 100% | Both teams scored | 67% |
| 0% | Clean sheets | 25% |
| 0% | Failed to score | 8% |
| 1.73 | Yellow cards per game | 1.33 |
League matches only, 11 and 12 games.
When goals come
| Minutes | Barnet | York City |
|---|---|---|
| 0–15 min | ||
| 16–30 min | ||
| 31–45 min | ||
| 46–60 min | ||
| 61–75 min | ||
| 76–90 min |
League Two table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Salford City | 13 | +9 | 28 | WWWWW |
| 2 | Barnet | 11 | +8 | 22 | DLWWW |
| 3 | Cheltenham | 13 | +0 | 21 | WWLLL |
| 4 | Crewe | 13 | +0 | 21 | LLWWW |
| 5 | York City | 12 | +8 | 20 | WDDDW |
| 6 | Walsall | 12 | +7 | 19 | LWDDD |
| 7 | Chesterfield | 13 | +6 | 19 | WDLDW |
| 8 | Exeter City | 13 | +3 | 19 | WWDWW |
Head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Barnet won 3, York City 3, 0 draws; 3.7 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Feb 2025 | Barnet | 3–1 | York City | National League |
| 22 Oct 2024 | York City | 3–1 | Barnet | National League |
| 24 Feb 2024 | Barnet | 2–0 | York City | National League |
| 26 Sep 2023 | York City | 2–4 | Barnet | National League |
| 3 Apr 2023 | York City | 1–0 | Barnet | National League |
| 1 Oct 2022 | Barnet | 0–5 | York City | National League |
Match context
- Stadium
- The Hive Stadium, London
- 6,418 seats · grass
- Rest days
- Barnet 3York City 3
- Matches in the last 14 days: Barnet 3 · York City 3
- Coaches
- Dean Brennan
- Barnet, since Aug 2026
- S. Lindsey
- York City, since Aug 2026
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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