Wolverhampton Wanderers vs Cardiff City prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
Wolverhampton to win: 61%, about 3 in 5
Goals call3+ goals 68% · bookies 68%
Bookmakers' prices with their margin removed; a stats preview does not adjust them with news.
The Verdict
All three lean the same way: Wolves' home record and fourth place justify the 61% home price, while Cardiff's five-game away winless run supports the 18%. On goals, the 68% over 2.5 line fits both sides' 58% over rates and high both-teams-score figures, so the published numbers look broadly right.
What our AI analysts say
All three broadly agree with the bookmakers.
The Coach
styles in the numbersWolves' home scoring and Cardiff's leaky defence point to goals
Wolves score 1.67 per game at home and Cardiff concede 1.42 per game with just 8% clean sheets. Both teams score in 67% and 75% of their matches, and both sit at 58% over 2.5. Cardiff score most before half-time (6 in 31-45), Wolves concede most in the 16-30 period.
The Dressing Room
the table and pressurePlay-off chasing Wolves hold the pressure edge at home
Wolves are 4th with 21 points, inside the Play-offs places 3-6, and have won three of their last six. Cardiff sit 16th on 14 points but are winless in five away games (D L L L L). Both had 7 days' rest, so freshness is equal.
The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongCardiff's away record makes 18% look fair, maybe generous
The published 61-21-18 roughly matches the data, but Cardiff have lost four of their last five away games, conceding 9 in that run, and have kept clean sheets in only 8% of matches. Wolves' 2.3 expected goals looks slightly high given they lost at home to Bolton recently.
Cardiff: slightly overrated
Low Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
In short
Wolverhampton Wanderers are clear favourites at 61%, with Cardiff City on 18% and the draw on 21%. Wolverhampton Wanderers are 4th and Cardiff City 16th in the Championship. In their last five league games, Wolverhampton Wanderers won two and Cardiff City three.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Wolverhampton Wanderers win or draw
- 82%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 79%
- Cardiff City win or draw
- 39%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 86%
- 3+ goals
- 68%
- 4+ goals
- 46%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 63%
- No
- 37%
We expect about 2.3 goals from Wolverhampton Wanderers and 1.2 from Cardiff City. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 2–1 (10%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 10. Next: 1–1 (8%), 2–0 (8%), 3–1 (7%), 1–0 (7%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 48% | 23% | 29% | Stats preview (goals model, no bookmaker prices) | #2072 | |
| 2 | 61% | 21% | 18% | Prices moved | #2167 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Wolverhampton Wanderers: last 6
WDWLLW · 6 scored, 6 conceded
| 24 Oct | vs Watford | 1–0 | W |
| 20 Oct | vs Portsmouth | 1–1 | D |
| 16 Oct | at Burnley | 2–1 | W |
| 13 Oct | vs Bolton | 1–3 | L |
| 10 Oct | at Middlesbrough | 0–1 | L |
| 20 Sep | vs West Brom | 1–0 | W |
Last 5 at home: WDLWW
Cardiff City: last 6
WDWLWL · 12 scored, 7 conceded
| 24 Oct | vs Birmingham | 1–0 | W |
| 17 Oct | at Middlesbrough | 2–2 | D |
| 13 Oct | vs Watford | 5–1 | W |
| 10 Oct | at Blackburn | 1–2 | L |
| 19 Sep | vs Charlton | 3–1 | W |
| 12 Sep | at Bolton | 0–1 | L |
Last 5 away: DLLLL
Season stats
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | Cardiff City | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.67 | Goals scored per game | 1.58 |
| 1.33 | Goals conceded per game | 1.42 |
| 1.67 | Scored per game at home | 2.17 |
| 1.67 | Scored per game away | 1.00 |
| 58% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 58% |
| 67% | Both teams scored | 75% |
| 25% | Clean sheets | 8% |
| 8% | Failed to score | 17% |
| 1.83 | Yellow cards per game | 1.92 |
League matches only, 12 games each.
When goals come
| Minutes | Wolverhampton Wanderers | Cardiff City |
|---|---|---|
| 0–15 min | ||
| 16–30 min | ||
| 31–45 min | ||
| 46–60 min | ||
| 61–75 min | ||
| 76–90 min |
Championship table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Middlesbrough | 12 | +10 | 25 | WDWWD |
| 2 | Swansea | 12 | +3 | 23 | LLWWW |
| 3 | West Ham | 12 | +17 | 22 | LWWDD |
| 4 | Wolverhampton Wanderers | 12 | +4 | 21 | WDWLL |
| 5 | West Brom | 12 | +3 | 21 | DWWLL |
| 6 | Southampton | 12 | +12 | 20 −4 | WDWWL |
| 7 | Birmingham | 12 | +8 | 20 | LWWWD |
| … | |||||
| 13 | Millwall | 12 | -1 | 15 | LDLWD |
| 14 | Bristol City | 12 | -3 | 15 | DLLDW |
| 15 | Lincoln | 12 | -7 | 15 | WDLLL |
| 16 | Cardiff City | 12 | +2 | 14 | WDWLW |
| 17 | Wrexham | 12 | -3 | 14 | LWLDW |
| 18 | Bolton | 12 | -7 | 14 | LDWLW |
| 19 | Charlton | 12 | -7 | 14 | LLDDL |
Match context
- Stadium
- Molineux Stadium, Wolverhampton, West Midlands
- 34,624 seats · grass
- Rest days
- Wolverhampton Wanderers 7Cardiff City 7
- Matches in the last 14 days: Wolverhampton Wanderers 2 · Cardiff City 1
- Coaches
- César Peixoto
- Wolverhampton Wanderers, since Jul 2026
- B. Barry-Murphy
- Cardiff City, since Jul 2025
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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