Lincoln City vs Birmingham City prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
Birmingham to win: 46%, about 1 in 2
Goals call2 goals or fewer 50% · bookies 50%
Bookmakers' prices with their margin removed; a stats preview does not adjust them with news.
The Verdict
All three readings lean the same way: Birmingham's stronger season and play-off push justify their 46% favouritism, while Lincoln's defensive record keeps the goals line near even. The consensus lands close to the published numbers, with a slight lean towards the away side and a modest edge to over 2.5.
What our AI analysts say
All three broadly agree with the bookmakers.
The Coach
styles in the numbersBirmingham's away scoring dip meets Lincoln's leaky defence in a game that should still see goals.
Lincoln concede 1.67 per game and let five in across their last two home defeats, while Birmingham average 2.33 scored at home but only 1.00 away. Lincoln concede most after the break (14 of 20 goals from minute 46), and Birmingham concede heavily before half-time (9 of 15 in 31-45).
The Dressing Room
the table and pressureBirmingham's play-off push gives them the sharper edge against mid-table Lincoln.
Both teams have six days' rest, but Birmingham played twice in 14 days to Lincoln's once.
The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongThe prices look broadly fair, though Lincoln's home fragility may be slightly underpriced.
The 46% away price and 50% over 2.5 line sit comfortably with the season data, so I see little to argue with.
Lincoln: slightly overrated
Low Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
In short
Birmingham City are favourites at 46%, with Lincoln City on 27% and the draw on 27%. Lincoln City are 15th and Birmingham City 7th in the Championship. In their last five league games, Lincoln City won one and Birmingham City three.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Lincoln City win or draw
- 54%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 73%
- Birmingham City win or draw
- 73%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 74%
- 3+ goals
- 49%
- 4+ goals
- 27%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 53%
- No
- 47%
We expect about 1.1 goals from Lincoln City and 1.5 from Birmingham City. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (12%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 8. Next: 0–1 (11%), 1–2 (9%), 0–2 (8%), 1–0 (8%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 27% | 27% | 46% | Stats preview | #1774 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Lincoln City: last 6
WDLLLW · 8 scored, 14 conceded
| 24 Oct | vs Burnley | 4–1 | W |
| 17 Oct | at Millwall | 2–2 | D |
| 14 Oct | vs West Ham | 0–6 | L |
| 10 Oct | at Sheffield Utd | 0–3 | L |
| 19 Sep | vs Swansea | 1–2 | L |
| 15 Sep | at Bristol City | 1–0 | W |
Last 5 at home: WLLDD
Birmingham City: last 6
LWWWDW · 12 scored, 4 conceded
| 24 Oct | at Cardiff | 0–1 | L |
| 17 Oct | vs QPR | 3–0 | W |
| 13 Oct | vs Preston | 4–0 | W |
| 10 Oct | at West Brom | 1–0 | W |
| 19 Sep | vs Middlesbrough | 2–2 | D |
| 12 Sep | at Derby | 2–1 | W |
Last 5 away: LWWLW
Season stats
| Lincoln City | Birmingham City | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.08 | Goals scored per game | 1.67 |
| 1.67 | Goals conceded per game | 1.00 |
| 1.17 | Scored per game at home | 2.33 |
| 1.00 | Scored per game away | 1.00 |
| 58% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 67% |
| 50% | Both teams scored | 58% |
| 33% | Clean sheets | 33% |
| 25% | Failed to score | 17% |
| 2.33 | Yellow cards per game | 2.17 |
League matches only, 12 games each.
When goals come
| Minutes | Lincoln City | Birmingham City |
|---|---|---|
| 0–15 min | ||
| 16–30 min | ||
| 31–45 min | ||
| 46–60 min | ||
| 61–75 min | ||
| 76–90 min |
Championship table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Wolves | 12 | +4 | 21 | WDWLL |
| 5 | West Brom | 12 | +3 | 21 | DWWLL |
| 6 | Southampton | 12 | +12 | 20 −4 | WDWWL |
| 7 | Birmingham City | 12 | +8 | 20 | LWWWD |
| 8 | QPR | 12 | +8 | 20 | WLWDD |
| 9 | Stoke City | 12 | +2 | 20 | DWLWW |
| 10 | Blackburn | 12 | +3 | 18 | WLWWD |
| … | |||||
| 12 | Sheffield Utd | 12 | +1 | 16 | DWLWL |
| 13 | Millwall | 12 | -1 | 15 | LDLWD |
| 14 | Bristol City | 12 | -3 | 15 | DLLDW |
| 15 | Lincoln City | 12 | -7 | 15 | WDLLL |
| 16 | Cardiff | 12 | +2 | 14 | WDWLW |
| 17 | Wrexham | 12 | -3 | 14 | LWLDW |
| 18 | Bolton | 12 | -7 | 14 | LDWLW |
Match context
- Stadium
- LNER Stadium, Lincoln, Lincolnshire
- 10,780 seats · grass
- Rest days
- Lincoln City 6Birmingham City 6
- Matches in the last 14 days: Lincoln City 1 · Birmingham City 2
- Coaches
- Chris Cohen
- Lincoln City, since Oct 2026
- C. Davies
- Birmingham City, since Jun 2024
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
18+ · Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. If you bet, bet only what you can afford to lose. Responsible gambling
