Bolton Wanderers vs Bristol City prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
Bristol City to win: 40%, about 2 in 5
Goals call3+ goals 55% · bookies 55%
Bookmakers' prices with their margin removed; a stats preview does not adjust them with news.
The Verdict
The three readings suggest a tight contest where Bristol City holds a slight edge based on recent form. While Bolton's home record is shaky, the high goal frequency across both teams points towards an open match with a good chance of multiple goals.
What our AI analysts say
1 of 3 think Bristol City's chances are better than the bookmakers say.
The Coach
styles in the numbersBolton's home scoring rate is 1.17 per game, but they concede 1.92.
Bolton scores most often in the 16-30 period with 4 goals, while Bristol City concedes most late, with 4 goals in the 76-90 period.
The Dressing Room
the table and pressureBoth sides are fighting to climb out of the lower reaches of the table.
Bristol City is 14th with 15 points, holding a 1-point advantage over Bolton Wanderers who are 18th with 14 points. Both teams have had 7 days rest since their last fixture.
The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongThe market favours Bristol City, but Bolton's home form is concerning.
Bolton's last 5 home matches saw them score 5 goals but concede 11. Bristol City's away form has seen them score 7 goals in 5 games while conceding 7.
Bristol City: slightly underrated
Low Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
In short
Bristol City are slight favourites at 40%, with Bolton Wanderers on 34% and the draw on 26%. Bolton Wanderers are 18th and Bristol City 14th in the Championship. In their last five league games, Bolton Wanderers won two and Bristol City one.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Bolton Wanderers win or draw
- 60%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 74%
- Bristol City win or draw
- 66%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 78%
- 3+ goals
- 55%
- 4+ goals
- 33%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 58%
- No
- 42%
We expect about 1.4 goals from Bolton Wanderers and 1.5 from Bristol City. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (12%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 9. Next: 1–2 (9%), 0–1 (8%), 2–1 (8%), 1–0 (8%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 43% | 26% | 31% | Stats preview (goals model, no bookmaker prices) | #1776 | |
| 2 | 34% | 26% | 40% | Prices moved | #2097 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Bolton Wanderers: last 6
LDWLWW · 10 scored, 11 conceded
| 23 Oct | vs Middlesbrough | 1–5 | L |
| 17 Oct | at Southampton | 0–0 | D |
| 13 Oct | at Wolves | 3–1 | W |
| 10 Oct | vs Stoke City | 1–2 | L |
| 20 Sep | at Norwich | 4–3 | W |
| 12 Sep | vs Cardiff | 1–0 | W |
Last 5 at home: LLWLL
Bristol City: last 6
DLLDWL · 2 scored, 4 conceded
| 24 Oct | at Stoke City | 0–0 | D |
| 17 Oct | vs Sheffield Utd | 0–1 | L |
| 13 Oct | vs Blackburn | 0–1 | L |
| 10 Oct | at Charlton | 1–1 | D |
| 18 Sep | vs Watford | 1–0 | W |
| 15 Sep | vs Lincoln | 0–1 | L |
Last 5 away: DDLWW
Season stats
| Bolton Wanderers | Bristol City | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.33 | Goals scored per game | 1.00 |
| 1.92 | Goals conceded per game | 1.25 |
| 1.17 | Scored per game at home | 0.50 |
| 1.50 | Scored per game away | 1.50 |
| 67% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 42% |
| 58% | Both teams scored | 50% |
| 25% | Clean sheets | 17% |
| 33% | Failed to score | 42% |
| 1.67 | Yellow cards per game | 1.33 |
League matches only, 12 games each.
When goals come
| Minutes | Bolton Wanderers | Bristol City |
|---|---|---|
| 0–15 min | ||
| 16–30 min | ||
| 31–45 min | ||
| 46–60 min | ||
| 61–75 min | ||
| 76–90 min |
Championship table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Portsmouth | 12 | +1 | 18 | WDWWL |
| 12 | Sheffield Utd | 12 | +1 | 16 | DWLWL |
| 13 | Millwall | 12 | -1 | 15 | LDLWD |
| 14 | Bristol City | 12 | -3 | 15 | DLLDW |
| 15 | Lincoln | 12 | -7 | 15 | WDLLL |
| 16 | Cardiff | 12 | +2 | 14 | WDWLW |
| 17 | Wrexham | 12 | -3 | 14 | LWLDW |
| 18 | Bolton Wanderers | 12 | -7 | 14 | LDWLW |
| 19 | Charlton | 12 | -7 | 14 | LLDDL |
| 20 | Norwich | 12 | -2 | 12 | WLLLL |
| 21 | Watford | 12 | -10 | 11 | LWLLL |
Match context
- Stadium
- Toughsheet Community Stadium, Bolton
- 28,723 seats · grass
- Rest days
- Bolton Wanderers 7Bristol City 7
- Matches in the last 14 days: Bolton Wanderers 1 · Bristol City 1
- Coaches
- S. Schumacher
- Bolton Wanderers, since Jan 2025
- M. Skubala
- Bristol City, since Oct 2026
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
18+ · Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. If you bet, bet only what you can afford to lose. Responsible gambling
