Southampton vs Queens Park Rangers prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
Southampton to win: 56%, about 3 in 5
Goals call3+ goals 63% · bookies 63%
Bookmakers' prices with their margin removed; a stats preview does not adjust them with news.
The Verdict
All three readings point the same way: Southampton's home scoring and QPR's poor away returns support the published 56-23-22 line, and the goals numbers (both teams near 58% over 2.5, BTTS strong for Southampton) sit comfortably with the 63% over-2.5 price. No one sees enough to move far from the market.
What our AI analysts say
All three broadly agree with the bookmakers.
The Coach
styles in the numbersSouthampton's home scoring punch should decide a game with goals in it.
Southampton score 2.67 per game at home against QPR's 1.17 away, and 7 of their 24 league goals came in the final 15 minutes - they finish strong. QPR concede evenly across periods and score most before the break, but away they have scored 4 and conceded 6 in five.
The Dressing Room
the table and pressureSaints' strong home run and equal points make this a top-six six-pointer feel.
Both sides sit on 20 points from 12 games, with Southampton 6th inside the play-off places and QPR 8th just outside - the winner strengthens a top-six push. Southampton have taken 13 scored and 3 conceded across five home games, with four straight home wins either side of a draw.
The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongMarket leans slightly too far towards Southampton's home win.
I'd trim the home win slightly and shade the draw.
Southampton: slightly overrated
Low Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
In short
Southampton are favourites at 56%, with Queens Park Rangers on 21% and the draw on 23%. Southampton are 6th and Queens Park Rangers 8th in the Championship. In their last five league games, Southampton won three and Queens Park Rangers two.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Southampton win or draw
- 78%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 77%
- Queens Park Rangers win or draw
- 44%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 84%
- 3+ goals
- 63%
- 4+ goals
- 41%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 61%
- No
- 39%
We expect about 2.0 goals from Southampton and 1.2 from Queens Park Rangers. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 2–1 (10%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 10. Next: 1–1 (10%), 2–0 (8%), 1–0 (8%), 3–1 (7%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 48% | 25% | 28% | Stats preview (goals model, no bookmaker prices) | #2069 | |
| 2 | 56% | 23% | 22% | Prices moved | #2166 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Southampton: last 6
WDWWLW · 10 scored, 5 conceded
| 24 Oct | at West Ham | 3–2 | W |
| 17 Oct | vs Bolton | 0–0 | D |
| 14 Oct | at Norwich | 1–0 | W |
| 11 Oct | vs Portsmouth | 1–0 | W |
| 19 Sep | at Wrexham | 1–2 | L |
| 12 Sep | vs Bristol City | 4–1 | W |
Last 5 at home: DWWWW
Queens Park Rangers: last 6
WLWDDD · 13 scored, 8 conceded
| 24 Oct | vs Swansea | 5–0 | W |
| 17 Oct | at Birmingham | 0–3 | L |
| 14 Oct | vs Derby | 4–1 | W |
| 9 Oct | at West Ham | 1–1 | D |
| 19 Sep | vs Preston | 2–2 | D |
| 12 Sep | at West Brom | 1–1 | D |
Last 5 away: LDDDW
Season stats
| Southampton | Queens Park Rangers | |
|---|---|---|
| 2.00 | Goals scored per game | 1.67 |
| 1.00 | Goals conceded per game | 1.00 |
| 2.67 | Scored per game at home | 2.17 |
| 1.33 | Scored per game away | 1.17 |
| 58% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 58% |
| 75% | Both teams scored | 58% |
| 25% | Clean sheets | 25% |
| 8% | Failed to score | 33% |
| 2.08 | Yellow cards per game | 1.92 |
League matches only, 12 games each.
When goals come
| Minutes | Southampton | Queens Park Rangers |
|---|---|---|
| 0–15 min | ||
| 16–30 min | ||
| 31–45 min | ||
| 46–60 min | ||
| 61–75 min | ||
| 76–90 min |
Championship table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | West Ham | 12 | +17 | 22 | LWWDD |
| 4 | Wolves | 12 | +4 | 21 | WDWLL |
| 5 | West Brom | 12 | +3 | 21 | DWWLL |
| 6 | Southampton | 12 | +12 | 20 −4 | WDWWL |
| 7 | Birmingham | 12 | +8 | 20 | LWWWD |
| 8 | Queens Park Rangers | 12 | +8 | 20 | WLWDD |
| 9 | Stoke City | 12 | +2 | 20 | DWLWW |
| 10 | Blackburn | 12 | +3 | 18 | WLWWD |
| 11 | Portsmouth | 12 | +1 | 18 | WDWWL |
Match context
- Stadium
- St. Mary's Stadium, Southampton, Hampshire
- 32,689 seats · grass
- Rest days
- Southampton 7Queens Park Rangers 7
- Matches in the last 14 days: Southampton 1 · Queens Park Rangers 1
- Coaches
- Tonda Eckert
- Southampton, since Aug 2026
- Julien Stéphan
- Queens Park Rangers, since Aug 2026
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
18+ · Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. If you bet, bet only what you can afford to lose. Responsible gambling
