Championship predicted table 2026-27
Chances for every team to finish in each zone, from 10,000 simulations of the 432 remaining matches. Updated 17 Oct 2026, 08:57 UTC.
In short
- West Ham United are favourites for the title at 44%, ahead of Swansea City (21%).
- Most likely to win automatic promotion: West Ham United (67%) and Swansea City (43%).
- 3 teams have a relegation chance above 50%: Preston North End, Watford and Derby County.
Predicted final table
| # | Team | Pld | Pts | Exp. pts | Title | Automatic promotion | Play-offs | Relegation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Swansea City | 10 | 23 | 83 | 21% | 43% | 45% | <1% |
| 2 | Middlesbrough | 10 | 21 | 80 | 11% | 27% | 51% | <1% |
| 3 | West Ham United | 10 | 19 | 87 | 44% | 67% | 29% | <1% |
| 4 | Birmingham City | 10 | 17 | 74 | 3% | 10% | 43% | <1% |
| 5 | Queens Park Rangers | 10 | 17 | 74 | 3% | 10% | 44% | <1% |
| 6 | Wolverhampton Wanderers | 10 | 17 | 73 | 3% | 8% | 39% | <1% |
| 7 | West Bromwich Albion | 10 | 17 | 69 | 1% | 2% | 21% | <1% |
| 8 | Southampton | 10 | 16 | 79 | 12% | 28% | 50% | <1% |
| 9 | Stoke City | 10 | 16 | 69 | 1% | 2% | 23% | <1% |
| 10 | Blackburn Rovers | 10 | 15 | 66 | <1% | 1% | 15% | <1% |
| 11 | Millwall | 10 | 14 | 66 | <1% | 1% | 14% | 1% |
| 12 | Bristol City | 10 | 14 | 58 | <1% | <1% | 2% | 4% |
| 13 | Charlton Athletic | 10 | 14 | 59 | <1% | <1% | 2% | 4% |
| 14 | Bolton Wanderers | 10 | 13 | 59 | <1% | <1% | 3% | 4% |
| 15 | Sheffield United | 10 | 12 | 62 | <1% | <1% | 7% | 2% |
| 16 | Portsmouth | 9 | 11 | 59 | <1% | <1% | 3% | 4% |
| 17 | Wrexham | 10 | 11 | 57 | <1% | <1% | 1% | 6% |
| 18 | Lincoln City | 10 | 11 | 49 | <1% | <1% | <1% | 35% |
| 19 | Cardiff City | 10 | 10 | 59 | <1% | <1% | 3% | 4% |
| 20 | Norwich City | 10 | 9 | 59 | <1% | <1% | 3% | 5% |
| 21 | Burnley | 11 | 8 | 50 | <1% | <1% | <1% | 24% |
| 22 | Watford | 10 | 8 | 44 | <1% | <1% | <1% | 62% |
| 23 | Derby County | 10 | 6 | 45 | <1% | <1% | <1% | 55% |
| 24 | Preston North End | 10 | 4 | 36 | <1% | <1% | <1% | 90% |
Zones: Title = 1st; Automatic promotion = 1–2; Play-offs = 3–6; Relegation = 22–24. Bold = more likely than not. 0% and 100% appear only when the outcome is already mathematically settled.
How this table is made
Each team gets an attack and a defence rating from this season's results, adjusted for home advantage and pulled towards the league average while the sample is small. We then play every remaining match 10,000 times with goals drawn from those ratings, and count how often each team ends up in each zone. Current points come from the official table, so any points deductions are included. Ties are broken on goal difference, then goals scored.
It uses no bookmaker prices, news or AI: it is a pure model of the results so far. Early in the season it reacts strongly to a few big wins, so treat the extremes with care. The table updates after every round. Methodology