Middlesbrough vs Charlton Athletic prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
Middlesbrough to win: 76%, about 3 in 4
Goals call3+ goals 67% · bookies 67%
Bookmakers' prices with their margin removed; a stats preview does not adjust them with news.
The Verdict
All three readings agree the home side deserve heavy favouritism, with scepticism limited to the total goals line. The coach points to first-half vulnerability for the visitors, the dressing room notes the 11-point gap and playoff pressure, and the sceptic flags the away side's blunt attack. The 67% over-2.5 is the one figure that may be shaded high.
What our AI analysts say
Our analysts are split: The Dressing Room thinks Middlesbrough are underrated; The Sceptic thinks a draw is underrated.
The Coach
styles in the numbersBoro score heavily at home and Charlton rarely find the net away.
Middlesbrough average 2.33 goals per home game and have never failed to score this season, while Charlton manage only 0.83 on their travels. Charlton concede most in the 16-30 minute period (5 goals); Middlesbrough's scoring peaks after the break with 7 in the 46-60 minute window.
The Dressing Room
the table and pressureMiddlesbrough are top chasing the title, Charlton sit 19th — pressure points one way.
Boro lead the table on 25 points from 12 games, sitting in the title and automatic promotion places with the play-offs six points below them. Charlton are 19th on 14. Middlesbrough have one loss all season; Charlton five. Both had 7 days' rest and one game in 14, so freshness is equal.
Middlesbrough: slightly underrated
Low The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongMarket looks right on 1X2, but the 67% over-2.5 may be slightly generous.
Middlesbrough's last six include a 2-2 and a 3-2 but also a 1-0; Charlton's six feature two 0-2 defeats, a 0-0 and a 1-1. Their away games have run over 2.5 just 50% of the time and both teams score only 58%. Home odds look fair; the goals line may be a touch high.
Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
In short
Middlesbrough are clear favourites at 76%, with Charlton Athletic on 9% and the draw on 15%. Middlesbrough are 1st and Charlton Athletic 19th in the Championship. In their last five league games, Middlesbrough won three and Charlton Athletic none.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Middlesbrough win or draw
- 91%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 85%
- Charlton Athletic win or draw
- 24%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 86%
- 3+ goals
- 67%
- 4+ goals
- 46%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 52%
- No
- 48%
We expect about 2.6 goals from Middlesbrough and 0.8 from Charlton Athletic. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 2–0 (11%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 9. Next: 3–0 (10%), 2–1 (9%), 1–0 (8%), 3–1 (8%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 66% | 19% | 15% | Stats preview (goals model, no bookmaker prices) | #1773 | |
| 2 | 76% | 15% | 9% | Prices moved | #2098 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Middlesbrough: last 6
WDWWDD · 15 scored, 9 conceded
| 23 Oct | at Bolton | 5–1 | W |
| 17 Oct | vs Cardiff | 2–2 | D |
| 13 Oct | at Stoke City | 3–2 | W |
| 10 Oct | vs Wolves | 1–0 | W |
| 19 Sep | at Birmingham | 2–2 | D |
| 15 Sep | vs Millwall | 2–2 | D |
Last 5 at home: DWDWW
Charlton Athletic: last 6
LLDDLD · 5 scored, 11 conceded
| 24 Oct | vs Norwich | 1–3 | L |
| 17 Oct | at Watford | 0–2 | L |
| 13 Oct | at Burnley | 2–2 | D |
| 10 Oct | vs Bristol City | 1–1 | D |
| 19 Sep | at Cardiff | 1–3 | L |
| 12 Sep | vs Portsmouth | 0–0 | D |
Last 5 away: LDLLD
Season stats
| Middlesbrough | Charlton Athletic | |
|---|---|---|
| 2.25 | Goals scored per game | 0.92 |
| 1.42 | Goals conceded per game | 1.50 |
| 2.33 | Scored per game at home | 0.83 |
| 2.17 | Scored per game away | 1.00 |
| 75% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 50% |
| 83% | Both teams scored | 58% |
| 17% | Clean sheets | 25% |
| 0% | Failed to score | 33% |
| 1.00 | Yellow cards per game | 2.08 |
League matches only, 12 games each.
When goals come
| Minutes | Middlesbrough | Charlton Athletic |
|---|---|---|
| 0–15 min | ||
| 16–30 min | ||
| 31–45 min | ||
| 46–60 min | ||
| 61–75 min | ||
| 76–90 min |
Championship table
Match context
- Stadium
- Riverside Stadium, Middlesbrough
- 34,988 seats · grass
- Rest days
- Middlesbrough 7Charlton Athletic 7
- Matches in the last 14 days: Middlesbrough 1 · Charlton Athletic 1
- Coaches
- K. Hellberg
- Middlesbrough, since Aug 2025
- N. Jones
- Charlton Athletic, since Feb 2024
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
18+ · Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. If you bet, bet only what you can afford to lose. Responsible gambling
