Burnley vs Portsmouth prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
Burnley to win: 47%, about 1 in 2
Goals call2 goals or fewer 50% · bookies 50%
Bookmakers' prices with their margin removed; a stats preview does not adjust them with news.
The Verdict
All three readings lean the same way: Burnley's home price looks a touch high given their 22nd-place position and L D D L D home run, while Portsmouth's away resilience earns a nudge above the published 26%. On goals, the coach sees a case for over 2.5, but the sceptic calls the 50% line fair, so the consensus sits right on the published numbers.
What our AI analysts say
1 of 3 think Portsmouth's chances are better than the bookmakers say. It does not make Portsmouth favourites.
The Coach
styles in the numbersBurnley's leaky defence meets Portsmouth's late goals in a game that should produce chances.
Portsmouth score most often late, with 4 goals in the 76-90 period and none conceded there. Burnley are strongest before the break, scoring 5 in the 16-30 period.
The Dressing Room
the table and pressureTwo sides under pressure: Burnley near the bottom, Portsmouth chasing the play-offs.
Burnley sit 22nd, inside the Relegation places, with 8 points from 12 games and one win all season. Portsmouth are 11th on 18 points, six points off the Play-offs places, unbeaten in four of their last six. Both had 7 days' rest, though Burnley played once in 14 days to Portsmouth's twice.
Burnley: slightly overrated
Low The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongThe market may be underestimating Portsmouth's away resilience.
Portsmouth have lost only one of their last five away games, conceding just 4 goals in that run, and concede 1.25 per game overall versus Burnley's 2.08. Burnley's home form reads L D D L D with 6 scored and 8 conceded.
Portsmouth: clearly underrated
Med Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
In short
Burnley are favourites at 47%, with Portsmouth on 26% and the draw on 27%. Burnley are 22nd and Portsmouth 11th in the Championship. In their last five league games, Burnley won one and Portsmouth three.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Burnley win or draw
- 74%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 73%
- Portsmouth win or draw
- 53%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 74%
- 3+ goals
- 50%
- 4+ goals
- 28%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 53%
- No
- 47%
We expect about 1.6 goals from Burnley and 1.1 from Portsmouth. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (12%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 8. Next: 1–0 (11%), 2–1 (9%), 2–0 (9%), 0–1 (8%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 47% | 27% | 26% | Stats preview | #1777 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Burnley: last 6
LLDWDL · 10 scored, 12 conceded
| 24 Oct | at Lincoln | 1–4 | L |
| 16 Oct | vs Wolves | 1–2 | L |
| 13 Oct | vs Charlton | 2–2 | D |
| 10 Oct | at Watford | 4–0 | W |
| 19 Sep | vs Derby | 1–1 | D |
| 12 Sep | at Swansea | 1–3 | L |
Last 5 at home: LDDLD
Portsmouth: last 6
WDWWLD · 9 scored, 7 conceded
| 24 Oct | vs Millwall | 2–1 | W |
| 20 Oct | at Wolves | 1–1 | D |
| 17 Oct | at Norwich | 1–0 | W |
| 14 Oct | vs Sheffield Utd | 3–2 | W |
| 11 Oct | at Southampton | 0–1 | L |
| 19 Sep | vs Blackburn | 2–2 | D |
Last 5 away: DWLDL
Season stats
| Burnley | Portsmouth | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.42 | Goals scored per game | 1.33 |
| 2.08 | Goals conceded per game | 1.25 |
| 1.33 | Scored per game at home | 1.67 |
| 1.50 | Scored per game away | 1.00 |
| 75% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 50% |
| 92% | Both teams scored | 58% |
| 8% | Clean sheets | 25% |
| 0% | Failed to score | 25% |
| 2.00 | Yellow cards per game | 1.50 |
League matches only, 12 games each.
When goals come
| Minutes | Burnley | Portsmouth |
|---|---|---|
| 0–15 min | ||
| 16–30 min | ||
| 31–45 min | ||
| 46–60 min | ||
| 61–75 min | ||
| 76–90 min |
Championship table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | QPR | 12 | +8 | 20 | WLWDD |
| 9 | Stoke City | 12 | +2 | 20 | DWLWW |
| 10 | Blackburn | 12 | +3 | 18 | WLWWD |
| 11 | Portsmouth | 12 | +1 | 18 | WDWWL |
| 12 | Sheffield Utd | 12 | +1 | 16 | DWLWL |
| 13 | Millwall | 12 | -1 | 15 | LDLWD |
| 14 | Bristol City | 12 | -3 | 15 | DLLDW |
| … | |||||
| 19 | Charlton | 12 | -7 | 14 | LLDDL |
| 20 | Norwich | 12 | -2 | 12 | WLLLL |
| 21 | Watford | 12 | -10 | 11 | LWLLL |
| 22 | Burnley | 12 | -8 | 8 | LLDWD |
| 23 | Derby | 12 | -11 | 7 | DLLDD |
| 24 | Preston | 12 | -15 | 5 | DLLLD |
Match context
- Stadium
- Turf Moor, Burnley
- 22,546 seats · grass
- Rest days
- Burnley 7Portsmouth 7
- Matches in the last 14 days: Burnley 1 · Portsmouth 2
- Coaches
- N. Hayen
- Burnley, since Aug 2026
- John Mousinho
- Portsmouth, since Aug 2026
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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