Swansea City vs Blackburn Rovers prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
Swansea to win: 55%, about 3 in 5
Goals call2 goals or fewer 50% · bookies 50%
Bookmakers' prices with their margin removed; a stats preview does not adjust them with news.
The Verdict
The consensus is a home win with a genuine chance of three or more goals, consistent with the 55/25/20 split and the 50% over 2.5 line.
What our AI analysts say
All three broadly agree with the bookmakers.
The Coach
styles in the numbersSwansea's home control meets Blackburn's high-scoring away games
Swansea concede just 1.08 per game with 42% clean sheets, while Blackburn score 1.58 per game and have both teams scored in 75% of their matches. Blackburn's goals cluster in the 46-60 minute period with six there, and they have failed to score in only 8% of games.
The Dressing Room
the table and pressureSecond hosts tenth with Swansea chasing the automatic promotion places
Swansea sit 2nd on 23 points from 12 games, inside the automatic promotion places, and have won four of their last six. Blackburn are 10th on 18 points, five points back. Both sides have had 7 days' rest with one game in 14 days, so neither carries a fixture-load excuse.
The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongSwansea's price looks fair, but their form wobble gives pause
Swansea's last two games were defeats, 0-5 at QPR and 0-1 to West Ham, yet they are priced at 55%. Their 16-13 goal record is modest for a side 2nd-placed in form terms, and they concede early with five goals in the first 15 minutes. Blackburn's 75% over 2.5 rate supports the 50% total line.
Swansea: slightly overrated
Low Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
In short
Swansea City are favourites at 55%, with Blackburn Rovers on 20% and the draw on 25%. Swansea City are 2nd and Blackburn Rovers 10th in the Championship. In their last five league games, Swansea City won three and Blackburn Rovers three.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Swansea City win or draw
- 80%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 75%
- Blackburn Rovers win or draw
- 45%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 74%
- 3+ goals
- 49%
- 4+ goals
- 28%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 50%
- No
- 50%
We expect about 1.7 goals from Swansea City and 0.9 from Blackburn Rovers. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–0 (12%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 8. Next: 1–1 (11%), 2–0 (10%), 2–1 (10%), 0–0 (7%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 44% | 26% | 30% | Stats preview (goals model, no bookmaker prices) | #2081 | |
| 2 | 55% | 25% | 20% | Prices moved | #2169 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Swansea City: last 6
LLWWWW · 8 scored, 9 conceded
| 24 Oct | at QPR | 0–5 | L |
| 17 Oct | vs West Ham | 0–1 | L |
| 13 Oct | at Millwall | 1–0 | W |
| 10 Oct | vs Norwich | 2–1 | W |
| 19 Sep | at Lincoln | 2–1 | W |
| 12 Sep | vs Burnley | 3–1 | W |
Last 5 at home: LWWDW
Blackburn Rovers: last 6
WLWWDW · 12 scored, 7 conceded
| 24 Oct | vs Wrexham | 2–0 | W |
| 17 Oct | at West Brom | 2–3 | L |
| 13 Oct | at Bristol City | 1–0 | W |
| 10 Oct | vs Cardiff | 2–1 | W |
| 19 Sep | at Portsmouth | 2–2 | D |
| 12 Sep | vs Millwall | 3–1 | W |
Last 5 away: LWDLD
Season stats
| Swansea City | Blackburn Rovers | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.33 | Goals scored per game | 1.58 |
| 1.08 | Goals conceded per game | 1.33 |
| 1.17 | Scored per game at home | 1.83 |
| 1.50 | Scored per game away | 1.33 |
| 58% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 75% |
| 42% | Both teams scored | 75% |
| 42% | Clean sheets | 25% |
| 33% | Failed to score | 8% |
| 1.67 | Yellow cards per game | 2.50 |
League matches only, 12 games each.
When goals come
| Minutes | Swansea City | Blackburn Rovers |
|---|---|---|
| 0–15 min | ||
| 16–30 min | ||
| 31–45 min | ||
| 46–60 min | ||
| 61–75 min | ||
| 76–90 min |
Championship table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Middlesbrough | 12 | +10 | 25 | WDWWD |
| 2 | Swansea City | 12 | +3 | 23 | LLWWW |
| 3 | West Ham | 12 | +17 | 22 | LWWDD |
| 4 | Wolves | 12 | +4 | 21 | WDWLL |
| 5 | West Brom | 12 | +3 | 21 | DWWLL |
| … | |||||
| 7 | Birmingham | 12 | +8 | 20 | LWWWD |
| 8 | QPR | 12 | +8 | 20 | WLWDD |
| 9 | Stoke City | 12 | +2 | 20 | DWLWW |
| 10 | Blackburn Rovers | 12 | +3 | 18 | WLWWD |
| 11 | Portsmouth | 12 | +1 | 18 | WDWWL |
| 12 | Sheffield Utd | 12 | +1 | 16 | DWLWL |
| 13 | Millwall | 12 | -1 | 15 | LDLWD |
Match context
- Stadium
- Swansea.com Stadium, Swansea
- 21,028 seats · grass
- Rest days
- Swansea City 7Blackburn Rovers 7
- Matches in the last 14 days: Swansea City 1 · Blackburn Rovers 1
- Coaches
- Vítor Matos
- Swansea City, since Aug 2026
- Tony Mowbray
- Blackburn Rovers, since Aug 2026
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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