Millwall vs Derby County prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
Millwall to win: 58%, about 3 in 5
Goals call3+ goals 52% · bookies 52%
Bookmakers' prices with their margin removed; a stats preview does not adjust them with news.
The Verdict
All three readings point the same way: Millwall as clear favourites at home against a struggling Derby side, with the Coach and Sceptic both backing the published 58-23-18 split and the Dressing Room adding table pressure. On goals, the sceptic alone leans over, leaving the 2.5 line genuinely marginal at 52%.
What our AI analysts say
All three broadly agree with the bookmakers.
The Coach
styles in the numbersMillwall's late-goal habit and home scoring rate give them the edge in a game with goals in it.
Millwall score 1.83 per game at home against a Derby side keeping clean sheets in just 8% of matches. Derby score only 0.67 per game at home and 1.00 away, so both-teams-score at 51% looks finely balanced.
The Dressing Room
the table and pressureBottom-side Derby arrive with seven points in 12 games and the pressure sits squarely on them.
Millwall sit 13th on 15 points; Derby are 23rd on just 7, one win all season, inside the Relegation places (22-24). Millwall have taken 4 wins and 3 draws from 12 but only one win in their last six. Both teams had 7 days' rest, so freshness is equal. The gap in stakes should favour the hosts.
The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongThe 58% on Millwall looks about right, but the goal line is worth questioning.
The market's 1.8-0.9 goal split seems fair, yet Millwall's last six show two 2-2s and a 2-1 loss, and Derby have drawn three of their last six 1-1. Millwall's matches have gone over 2.5 goals 75% of the time versus Derby's 50%. The published 52% over rate looks slightly low.
Millwall: slightly overrated
More goalsLow Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
In short
Millwall are favourites at 58%, with Derby County on 18% and the draw on 24%. Millwall are 13th and Derby County 23rd in the Championship. In their last five league games, Millwall won one and Derby County none.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Millwall win or draw
- 82%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 77%
- Derby County win or draw
- 42%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 76%
- 3+ goals
- 52%
- 4+ goals
- 30%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 51%
- No
- 49%
We expect about 1.8 goals from Millwall and 0.9 from Derby County. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–0 (12%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 9. Next: 1–1 (11%), 2–0 (11%), 2–1 (10%), 3–0 (6%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 58% | 23% | 18% | Stats preview | #1775 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Millwall: last 6
LDLWDD · 8 scored, 9 conceded
| 24 Oct | at Portsmouth | 1–2 | L |
| 17 Oct | vs Lincoln | 2–2 | D |
| 13 Oct | vs Swansea | 0–1 | L |
| 10 Oct | at Preston | 1–0 | W |
| 19 Sep | vs West Ham | 2–2 | D |
| 15 Sep | at Middlesbrough | 2–2 | D |
Last 5 at home: DLDLW
Derby County: last 6
DLLDDL · 5 scored, 10 conceded
| 24 Oct | at Sheffield Utd | 1–1 | D |
| 17 Oct | vs Stoke City | 0–1 | L |
| 14 Oct | at QPR | 1–4 | L |
| 10 Oct | vs Wrexham | 1–1 | D |
| 19 Sep | at Burnley | 1–1 | D |
| 12 Sep | vs Birmingham | 1–2 | L |
Last 5 away: DLDLW
Season stats
| Millwall | Derby County | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.58 | Goals scored per game | 0.83 |
| 1.67 | Goals conceded per game | 1.75 |
| 1.83 | Scored per game at home | 0.67 |
| 1.33 | Scored per game away | 1.00 |
| 75% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 50% |
| 50% | Both teams scored | 58% |
| 33% | Clean sheets | 8% |
| 17% | Failed to score | 33% |
| 1.92 | Yellow cards per game | 2.50 |
League matches only, 12 games each.
When goals come
| Minutes | Millwall | Derby County |
|---|---|---|
| 0–15 min | ||
| 16–30 min | ||
| 31–45 min | ||
| 46–60 min | ||
| 61–75 min | ||
| 76–90 min |
Championship table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Blackburn | 12 | +3 | 18 | WLWWD |
| 11 | Portsmouth | 12 | +1 | 18 | WDWWL |
| 12 | Sheffield Utd | 12 | +1 | 16 | DWLWL |
| 13 | Millwall | 12 | -1 | 15 | LDLWD |
| 14 | Bristol City | 12 | -3 | 15 | DLLDW |
| 15 | Lincoln | 12 | -7 | 15 | WDLLL |
| 16 | Cardiff | 12 | +2 | 14 | WDWLW |
| … | |||||
| 20 | Norwich | 12 | -2 | 12 | WLLLL |
| 21 | Watford | 12 | -10 | 11 | LWLLL |
| 22 | Burnley | 12 | -8 | 8 | LLDWD |
| 23 | Derby County | 12 | -11 | 7 | DLLDD |
| 24 | Preston | 12 | -15 | 5 | DLLLD |
Match context
- Stadium
- The Den, London
- 20,146 seats · grass
- Rest days
- Millwall 7Derby County 7
- Matches in the last 14 days: Millwall 1 · Derby County 1
- Coaches
- A. Neil
- Millwall, since Dec 2024
- J. Eustace
- Derby County, since Feb 2025
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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