Red Arrows vs Chirundu Utd prediction
Data modelGoals model, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
Red Arrows to win: 48%, about 1 in 2
Goals call2 goals or fewer 69%
No bookmaker prices: these numbers come from our goals model only.
The Verdict
The goals picture is the strongest shared theme - two mean defences and weak away scoring make the 31% over-2.5 rate look fair, with a low-scoring home lean the most consistent conclusion.
What our AI analysts say
Our analysts read the numbers only.
The Coach
styles in the numbersTwo tight defences point to a low-scoring home lean
Both teams score in just 36% of the model's games, so a lean home win with few goals fits.
The Dressing Room
the table and pressureEarly-season table says little, but rest and momentum favour Arrows
Red Arrows sit 11th with 4 points from 2 games, unbeaten, and have 7 days' rest with one game in 14. Chirundu Utd are 7th on 7 points from 4 games but played twice in 14 days. Both sides' recent runs include wins, so neither arrives under pressure.
The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongThe 31% over-2.5 line looks about right, maybe a touch high
Chirundu Utd's away scoring of 0.33 per game and Red Arrows' home scoring of 0.00 sit oddly against the model's 1.2-0.7 expected goals, though small samples explain it. With 3+ goals at just 31% and both teams scoring 36%, the published 31% over rate is fair.
Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
In short
Red Arrows are favourites at 48%, with Chirundu Utd on 22% and the draw on 30%. Red Arrows are 11th and Chirundu Utd 7th in the Zambia Super League. In their last four matches across all competitions, Red Arrows won two and Chirundu Utd two.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Red Arrows win or draw
- 78%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 70%
- Chirundu Utd win or draw
- 52%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 58%
- 3+ goals
- 31%
- 4+ goals
- 13%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 36%
- No
- 64%
We expect about 1.2 goals from Red Arrows and 0.7 from Chirundu Utd. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–0 (17%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 6. Next: 0–0 (14%), 1–1 (13%), 2–0 (11%), 0–1 (10%).
How these numbers are made
No bookmaker priced this match, so the numbers come from our goals model: attack and defence ratings from this season's results in this league, with home advantage. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 48% | 30% | 22% | Stats preview (goals model, no bookmaker prices) | #1904 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Red Arrows: last 4
LWDW · 4 scored, 2 conceded
| 23 Oct | at Kaizer Chiefs CAF Confederation Cup | 0–1 | L |
| 17 Oct | vs Kaizer Chiefs CAF Confederation Cup | 1–0 | W |
| 10 Oct | vs Mufulira Wanderers | 0–0 | D |
| 4 Oct | at Mutondo Stars | 3–1 | W |
Last 2 at home: WD
Chirundu Utd: last 4
WWDL · 4 scored, 2 conceded
| 25 Oct | at Mufulira Wanderers | 1–0 | W |
| 18 Oct | vs Mutondo Stars | 3–0 | W |
| 10 Oct | at Nkwazi | 0–0 | D |
| 4 Oct | at Green Buffaloes | 0–2 | L |
Last 3 away: WDL
Season stats
| Red Arrows | Chirundu Utd | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.50 | Goals scored per game | 1.00 |
| 0.50 | Goals conceded per game | 0.50 |
| 0.00 | Scored per game at home | 3.00 |
| 3.00 | Scored per game away | 0.33 |
| 50% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 25% |
| 50% | Both teams scored | 0% |
| 50% | Clean sheets | 75% |
| 50% | Failed to score | 50% |
League matches only, 2 and 4 games.
Zambia Super League table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Konkola Blades | 4 | +3 | 9 | WLWW |
| 5 | Green Buffaloes | 4 | +3 | 8 | WDDW |
| 6 | Zanaco | 4 | +3 | 7 | WDLW |
| 7 | Chirundu Utd | 4 | +2 | 7 | WWDL |
| 8 | Power Dynamos | 4 | +0 | 6 | LWWL |
| 9 | ZESCO United | 4 | +4 | 5 | WDLD |
| 10 | Trident | 4 | +3 | 4 | WLDL |
| 11 | Red Arrows | 2 | +2 | 4 | DW |
| 12 | Kabwe Warriors | 3 | +0 | 4 | LWD |
| 13 | Roan United | 3 | +0 | 4 | LDW |
| 14 | Kansanshi Dynamos | 4 | -5 | 4 | LWLD |
Match context
- Rest days
- Red Arrows 7Chirundu Utd 6
- Matches in the last 14 days: Red Arrows 1 · Chirundu Utd 2
- Goals in this league
- Zambia Super League average: 2.18 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
18+ · Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. If you bet, bet only what you can afford to lose. Responsible gambling
