Mutondo Stars vs Roan United prediction
Data modelGoals model, home/away form, scoring trends and the table. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
Wide open: no clear favourite (Roan 39%)
Goals call2 goals or fewer 54%
No bookmaker prices: these numbers come from our goals model only.
Key factors
In short
Roan United are slight favourites at 39%, with Mutondo Stars on 34% and the draw on 27%. Mutondo Stars are 20th and Roan United 13th in the Zambia Super League. In their last three league games, Mutondo Stars won none and Roan United one.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Mutondo Stars win or draw
- 61%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 73%
- Roan United win or draw
- 66%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 72%
- 3+ goals
- 46%
- 4+ goals
- 25%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 51%
- No
- 49%
We expect about 1.2 goals from Mutondo Stars and 1.3 from Roan United. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (13%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 8. Next: 0–1 (11%), 1–0 (10%), 1–2 (8%), 0–0 (8%).
How these numbers are made
No bookmaker priced this match, so the numbers come from our goals model: attack and defence ratings from this season's results in this league, with home advantage. No team news is read for this match, so the numbers are not adjusted. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 34% | 27% | 39% | Stats preview (goals model, no bookmaker prices) | #1756 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Mutondo Stars: last 4
LLLL · 3 scored, 14 conceded
| 24 Oct | at ZESCO United | 0–5 | L |
| 18 Oct | at Chirundu Utd | 0–3 | L |
| 10 Oct | at Kabwe Warriors | 2–3 | L |
| 4 Oct | vs Red Arrows | 1–3 | L |
Last 1 at home: L
Roan United: last 3
LDW · 2 scored, 2 conceded
| 17 Oct | at Green Eagles | 0–1 | L |
| 10 Oct | vs Green Buffaloes | 0–0 | D |
| 3 Oct | at Nkwazi | 2–1 | W |
Last 2 away: LW
Season stats
| Mutondo Stars | Roan United | |
|---|---|---|
| 0.75 | Goals scored per game | 0.67 |
| 3.50 | Goals conceded per game | 0.67 |
| 1.00 | Scored per game at home | 0.00 |
| 0.67 | Scored per game away | 1.00 |
| 100% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 33% |
| 50% | Both teams scored | 33% |
| 0% | Clean sheets | 33% |
| 50% | Failed to score | 67% |
League matches only, 4 and 3 games.
Zambia Super League table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Trident | 4 | +3 | 4 | WLDL |
| 11 | Red Arrows | 2 | +2 | 4 | DW |
| 12 | Kabwe Warriors | 3 | +0 | 4 | LWD |
| 13 | Roan United | 3 | +0 | 4 | LDW |
| 14 | Kansanshi Dynamos | 4 | -5 | 4 | LWLD |
| 15 | NAPSA Stars | 4 | -1 | 3 | LDDD |
| 16 | Nkwazi | 4 | -1 | 3 | DDDL |
| 17 | Nchanga Rangers | 4 | -3 | 3 | WLLL |
| 18 | Mufulira Wanderers | 4 | -4 | 2 | LDDL |
| 19 | Makeni All Stars | 4 | -9 | 1 | LLLD |
| 20 | Mutondo Stars | 4 | -11 | 0 | LLLL |
Match context
- Rest days
- Mutondo Stars 8Roan United 15
- Matches in the last 14 days: Mutondo Stars 1 · Roan United 0
- Goals in this league
- Zambia Super League average: 2.18 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
18+ · Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. If you bet, bet only what you can afford to lose. Responsible gambling
