Nkwazi vs ZESCO United prediction
Data modelGoals model, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
Nkwazi to win: 40%, about 2 in 5
Goals call2 goals or fewer 77%
No bookmaker prices: these numbers come from our goals model only.
The Verdict
All three readings land close to the published numbers: Nkwazi around 40%, the draw near 34% and ZESCO about 26%. The goals case is equally aligned - Nkwazi's 75% failed-to-score rate, ZESCO's modest 1.00 away scoring and the 2.18 league average all support the low 23% over 2.5 line. A tight, low-scoring home lean is the consistent picture.
What our AI analysts say
Our analysts read the numbers only.
The Coach
styles in the numbersTwo low-scoring sides point to a tight, low-goal affair
With the league averaging 2.18 goals per match, under the line looks the natural read.
The Dressing Room
the table and pressureNkwazi's unbeaten-but-winless run keeps them hard to beat at home
Nkwazi sit 16th with 3 points from four draws-heavy games, while ZESCO are 9th on 5 points. Nkwazi's home form reads D D L with just 1 scored and 2 conceded, and both teams had 7 days' rest. The table gap is small, so a cagey draw fits the picture.
The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongZESCO's 5-0 win flatters a side that scores far less away
The model gives ZESCO only 26% despite their 1.50 goals per game, but away they score 1.00 and their only away game was a 1-1 draw, with a 0-0 and a 0-1 loss either side of the 5-0. Nkwazi concede just 0.50 per game with 75% clean sheets, so the home lean looks fair.
Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
In short
Nkwazi are slight favourites at 40%, with ZESCO United on 26% and the draw on 34%. Nkwazi are 16th and ZESCO United 9th in the Zambia Super League. In their last four league games, Nkwazi won none and ZESCO United one.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Nkwazi win or draw
- 74%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 66%
- ZESCO United win or draw
- 60%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 49%
- 3+ goals
- 23%
- 4+ goals
- 9%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 31%
- No
- 69%
We expect about 1.0 goals from Nkwazi and 0.7 from ZESCO United. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 0–0 (19%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 5. Next: 1–0 (18%), 0–1 (13%), 1–1 (13%), 2–0 (9%).
How these numbers are made
No bookmaker priced this match, so the numbers come from our goals model: attack and defence ratings from this season's results in this league, with home advantage. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 40% | 34% | 26% | Stats preview (goals model, no bookmaker prices) | #1897 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Nkwazi: last 4
DDDL · 1 scored, 2 conceded
| 24 Oct | vs Green Eagles | 0–0 | D |
| 18 Oct | at Green Buffaloes | 0–0 | D |
| 10 Oct | vs Chirundu Utd | 0–0 | D |
| 3 Oct | vs Roan United | 1–2 | L |
Last 3 at home: DDL
ZESCO United: last 4
WDLD · 6 scored, 2 conceded
| 24 Oct | vs Mutondo Stars | 5–0 | W |
| 18 Oct | vs Mufulira Wanderers | 0–0 | D |
| 10 Oct | vs Green Eagles | 0–1 | L |
| 3 Oct | at Kabwe Warriors | 1–1 | D |
Last 1 away: D
Season stats
| Nkwazi | ZESCO United | |
|---|---|---|
| 0.25 | Goals scored per game | 1.50 |
| 0.50 | Goals conceded per game | 0.50 |
| 0.33 | Scored per game at home | 1.67 |
| 0.00 | Scored per game away | 1.00 |
| 25% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 25% |
| 25% | Both teams scored | 25% |
| 75% | Clean sheets | 50% |
| 75% | Failed to score | 50% |
League matches only, 4 games each.
Zambia Super League table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Zanaco | 4 | +3 | 7 | WDLW |
| 7 | Chirundu Utd | 4 | +2 | 7 | WWDL |
| 8 | Power Dynamos | 4 | +0 | 6 | LWWL |
| 9 | ZESCO United | 4 | +4 | 5 | WDLD |
| 10 | Trident | 4 | +3 | 4 | WLDL |
| 11 | Red Arrows | 2 | +2 | 4 | DW |
| 12 | Kabwe Warriors | 3 | +0 | 4 | LWD |
| 13 | Roan United | 3 | +0 | 4 | LDW |
| 14 | Kansanshi Dynamos | 4 | -5 | 4 | LWLD |
| 15 | NAPSA Stars | 4 | -1 | 3 | LDDD |
| 16 | Nkwazi | 4 | -1 | 3 | DDDL |
| 17 | Nchanga Rangers | 4 | -3 | 3 | WLLL |
| 18 | Mufulira Wanderers | 4 | -4 | 2 | LDDL |
| 19 | Makeni All Stars | 4 | -9 | 1 | LLLD |
Match context
- Rest days
- Nkwazi 7ZESCO United 7
- Matches in the last 14 days: Nkwazi 2 · ZESCO United 2
- Goals in this league
- Zambia Super League average: 2.18 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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