Tampa Bay Rowdies vs Sporting JAX prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour pre-match forecast · data model
Who wins?
Tampa Bay Rowdies to win: 89%, about 9 in 10
Goals call3+ goals 78% · bookies 78% · ✗ 2 goals
The Verdict
All three readings point the same way: a dominant home side against an away team on a six-match losing run with heavy fixture load. The sceptic notes Sporting JAX have failed to score in all three head-to-heads, which supports the strong home lean even if a tighter, lower-scoring game than the 78% over line suggests is plausible.
What our AI analysts say
All three broadly agree with the bookmakers.
The Coach
styles in the numbersTampa Bay's home scoring rate meets an away defence conceding heavily.
The hosts score 2.14 per game at home and keep clean sheets in 52% of matches; the visitors concede 2.62 per game and have kept no clean sheets all season. Sporting JAX have failed to score in 41% of their games, so a one-sided home win is the natural reading of these styles.
Tampa Bay Rowdies: slightly overrated
Low The Dressing Room
the table and pressureFixture pile-up and a six-match losing run leave the visitors with little to work with.
Tampa Bay top the table on 58 points from 29 games and arrive with a full week's rest; Sporting JAX sit 25th on 14 points and play their second game in three days.
The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongPrices look broadly fair, but the over 2.5 line may be a touch high given the head-to-head.
The 88% home number matches a 1st vs 25th gap, but head-to-head goals average just 1.3 per game and all three meetings finished under 2.5.
Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
In short
Tampa Bay Rowdies are clear favourites at 89%, with Sporting JAX on 4% and the draw on 7%. Tampa Bay Rowdies are 1st and Sporting JAX 25th in the USL Championship. In their last five league games, Tampa Bay Rowdies won three and Sporting JAX none.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Tampa Bay Rowdies win or draw
- 96%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 93%
- Sporting JAX win or draw
- 12%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 92%
- 3+ goals
- 78%
- 4+ goals
- 59%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 47%
- No
- 53%
We expect about 3.5 goals from Tampa Bay Rowdies and 0.7 from Sporting JAX. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 3–0 (11%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 9. Next: 2–0 (10%), 4–0 (10%), 3–1 (7%), 5–0 (7%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 88% | 7% | 4% | Stats preview | #826 |
Frozen at kick-off. Version 1 is the one that counts in our track record. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Tampa Bay Rowdies: last 6
WWLDWL · 10 scored, 6 conceded
| 17 Oct | vs Detroit City | 1–0 | W |
| 10 Oct | at Indy Eleven | 3–1 | W |
| 3 Oct | vs Miami FC | 1–2 | L |
| 27 Sep | at San Antonio | 0–0 | D |
| 19 Sep | vs Birmingham Legion | 4–0 | W |
| 12 Sep | at Hartford Athletic | 1–3 | L |
Last 5 at home: WLWWW
Sporting JAX: last 6
LLLLLL · 2 scored, 16 conceded
| 21 Oct | vs Louisville City | 0–2 | L |
| 14 Oct | vs Birmingham Legion | 0–1 | L |
| 30 Sep | at Miami FC | 1–4 | L |
| 25 Sep | vs Loudoun United | 1–4 | L |
| 16 Sep | at Hartford Athletic | 0–2 | L |
| 12 Sep | vs Rhode Island | 0–3 | L |
Last 5 away: LLLWL
Season stats
| Tampa Bay Rowdies | Sporting JAX | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.72 | Goals scored per game | 1.10 |
| 0.90 | Goals conceded per game | 2.62 |
| 2.14 | Scored per game at home | 1.33 |
| 1.33 | Scored per game away | 0.86 |
| 45% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 69% |
| 41% | Both teams scored | 59% |
| 52% | Clean sheets | 0% |
| 14% | Failed to score | 41% |
League matches only, 29 games each.
USL Championship table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tampa Bay Rowdies | 30 | +26 | 61 | WWWLD |
| 2 | Charleston Battery | 30 | +21 | 53 | WWDLW |
| 3 | New Mexico United | 30 | +11 | 52 | WLWWL |
| 4 | Sacramento Republic | 30 | +14 | 51 | WWDDW |
| … | |||||
| 22 | Birmingham Legion | 30 | -6 | 30 | LWDWL |
| 23 | Monterey Bay | 30 | -20 | 24 | WLLWL |
| 24 | Brooklyn | 30 | -29 | 21 | LLWLL |
| 25 | Sporting JAX | 30 | -46 | 14 | LLLLL |
Head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Tampa Bay Rowdies won 3, Sporting JAX 0, 0 draws; 1.3 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 Jun 2026 | Sporting JAX | 0–2 | Tampa Bay Rowdies | USL League One Cup |
| 4 Apr 2026 | Sporting JAX | 0–1 | Tampa Bay Rowdies | USL Championship |
| 28 Feb 2026 | Tampa Bay Rowdies | 1–0 | Sporting JAX | Friendlies Clubs |
Match context
- Rest days
- Tampa Bay Rowdies 7Sporting JAX 3
- Matches in the last 14 days: Tampa Bay Rowdies 1 · Sporting JAX 2
- Referee
- A. Sobolevsky
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
18+ · Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. If you bet, bet only what you can afford to lose. Responsible gambling
