San Antonio vs Orange County SC prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour pre-match forecast · data model
Who wins?
San Antonio to win: 57%, about 3 in 5
Goals call3+ goals 51% · bookies 51% · ✓ 3 goals
The Verdict
On goals, the coach and sceptic both see the over 2.5 line as slightly optimistic against two sides scoring around a goal a game, so a tight, low-scoring home win is the collective reading.
What our AI analysts say
All three broadly agree with the bookmakers.
The Coach
styles in the numbersTwo blunt attacks and a stubborn home defence point to a low-scoring night.
Both-teams-score sits at just 41% for the hosts.
The Dressing Room
the table and pressureMid-table sides with little to play for, but San Antonio's home drought is a worry.
San Antonio sit 13th on 42 points from 29 games, Orange County 16th on 39, so the ZONES are not in play. San Antonio have won once in six and scored just once in five home games, while Orange County arrive on four straight league defeats with 12 conceded in five away trips.
The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongThe 60% home price looks generous given the head-to-head record.
Orange County have won 4 of the last 6 meetings, including 2-0 this season and 1-0 in 2025, with only 1.7 goals per game in that run. Their 62% both-teams-score rate and 1.57 goals per game away clash with a total line priced at 52% for over 2.5.
Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
In short
San Antonio are favourites at 57%, with Orange County SC on 20% and the draw on 23%. San Antonio are 14th and Orange County SC 16th in the USL Championship. In their last five league games, San Antonio won one and Orange County SC one.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- San Antonio win or draw
- 80%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 77%
- Orange County SC win or draw
- 43%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 76%
- 3+ goals
- 51%
- 4+ goals
- 29%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 51%
- No
- 49%
We expect about 1.8 goals from San Antonio and 1.0 from Orange County SC. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–0 (12%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 9. Next: 1–1 (11%), 2–0 (10%), 2–1 (10%), 0–0 (7%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
Frozen at kick-off. Version 2 is the one that counts in our track record. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
San Antonio: last 6
WDLDDL · 2 scored, 3 conceded
| 18 Oct | vs New Mexico United | 1–0 | W |
| 11 Oct | at Oakland Roots | 0–0 | D |
| 4 Oct | at Las Vegas Lights | 0–1 | L |
| 27 Sep | vs Tampa Bay Rowdies | 0–0 | D |
| 20 Sep | at Sacramento Republic | 0–0 | D |
| 12 Sep | at Colorado Springs | 1–2 | L |
Last 5 at home: WDDLL
Orange County SC: last 6
LLLWLL · 4 scored, 15 conceded
| 18 Oct | vs Phoenix Rising | 1–3 | L |
| 11 Oct | at El Paso Locomotive | 1–2 | L |
| 4 Oct | vs Monterey Bay | 1–2 | L |
| 27 Sep | vs Pittsburgh Riverhounds | 1–0 | W |
| 19 Sep | at Lexington | 0–6 | L |
| 13 Sep | vs Las Vegas Lights | 0–2 | L |
Last 5 away: LLDWD
Season stats
| San Antonio | Orange County SC | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.03 | Goals scored per game | 1.31 |
| 1.00 | Goals conceded per game | 1.62 |
| 1.07 | Scored per game at home | 1.07 |
| 1.00 | Scored per game away | 1.57 |
| 38% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 48% |
| 41% | Both teams scored | 62% |
| 41% | Clean sheets | 24% |
| 45% | Failed to score | 17% |
League matches only, 29 games each.
USL Championship table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Louisville City | 30 | +8 | 47 | DWWWD |
| 9 | Colorado Springs | 30 | +6 | 47 | WWDDD |
| 10 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds | 30 | +3 | 45 | WDWLL |
| 11 | San Antonio | 30 | +2 | 45 | WWDLD |
| 12 | FC Tulsa | 30 | +3 | 43 | LLDDW |
| 13 | Hartford Athletic | 30 | +2 | 43 | WLDLD |
| 14 | Rhode Island | 30 | +9 | 42 | LDWLW |
| 15 | Phoenix Rising | 30 | -1 | 40 | DWWLL |
| 16 | Orange County SC | 30 | -10 | 39 | LLLLW |
| 17 | Oakland Roots | 30 | -1 | 38 | LWDDW |
| 18 | Las Vegas Lights | 30 | -7 | 36 | LLLWL |
| 19 | Miami FC | 30 | -10 | 36 | LLWWW |
Head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: San Antonio won 1, Orange County SC 4, 1 draw; 1.7 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Apr 2026 | Orange County SC | 2–0 | San Antonio | USL Championship |
| 16 Oct 2025 | Orange County SC | 1–0 | San Antonio | USL Championship |
| 21 Sep 2025 | San Antonio | 3–1 | Orange County SC | USL Championship |
| 21 Jul 2024 | Orange County SC | 2–0 | San Antonio | USL Championship |
| 14 Apr 2024 | San Antonio | 0–0 | Orange County SC | USL Championship |
| 8 Oct 2023 | Orange County SC | 1–0 | San Antonio | USL Championship |
Match context
- Rest days
- San Antonio 7Orange County SC 6
- Matches in the last 14 days: San Antonio 2 · Orange County SC 2
- Referee
- E. Osmanovic
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
18+ · Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. If you bet, bet only what you can afford to lose. Responsible gambling
