El Paso Locomotive vs New Mexico United prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour pre-match forecast · data model
Who wins?
El Paso Locomotive to win: 55%, about 3 in 5
Goals call3+ goals 56% · bookies 56% · ✗ 1 goals
The Verdict
The three analyses converge on a competitive fixture where El Paso's home advantage is key. While the market favours the home side, the defensive stats of New Mexico suggest a tight contest, with the likelihood of goals remaining high.
What our AI analysts say
1 of 3 think El Paso Locomotive's chances are better than the bookmakers say.
The Coach
styles in the numbersEl Paso's home attacking output is expected to clash with New Mexico's disciplined away defence.
El Paso scores 1.64 goals per game at home, while New Mexico concedes only 1.17 goals per game on the road. Both teams have a 55% chance of scoring in this fixture.
El Paso Locomotive: slightly underrated
More goalsLow The Dressing Room
the table and pressureBoth sides are closely contested in the ZONES, with El Paso holding a slight advantage in the standings.
El Paso sits 4th with 50 points, just ahead of New Mexico United who are 5th with 49 points. Both teams have played 29 games and have a 7-day rest.
The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongThe market appears to have correctly identified El Paso's superiority based on historical results.
In the last six meetings, El Paso has won three times, compared to only one win for New Mexico. The head-to-head average is 3.7 goals per game.
Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
In short
El Paso Locomotive are favourites at 55%, with New Mexico United on 22% and the draw on 23%. El Paso Locomotive are 4th and New Mexico United 5th in the USL Championship. In their last five league games, El Paso Locomotive won two and New Mexico United two.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- El Paso Locomotive win or draw
- 78%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 77%
- New Mexico United win or draw
- 45%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 79%
- 3+ goals
- 56%
- 4+ goals
- 33%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 55%
- No
- 45%
We expect about 1.8 goals from El Paso Locomotive and 1.1 from New Mexico United. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (11%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 9. Next: 1–0 (10%), 2–1 (10%), 2–0 (9%), 3–1 (6%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 55% | 23% | 22% | Stats preview | #841 |
Frozen at kick-off. Version 1 is the one that counts in our track record. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
El Paso Locomotive: last 6
LWLDWW · 9 scored, 8 conceded
| 18 Oct | vs Sacramento Republic | 0–1 | L |
| 11 Oct | vs Orange County SC | 2–1 | W |
| 3 Oct | at Lexington | 1–3 | L |
| 26 Sep | vs FC Tulsa | 1–1 | D |
| 20 Sep | at Phoenix Rising | 3–1 | W |
| 12 Sep | at Louisville City | 2–1 | W |
Last 5 at home: LWDWW
New Mexico United: last 6
LWWLLD · 7 scored, 7 conceded
| 18 Oct | at San Antonio | 0–1 | L |
| 11 Oct | vs Monterey Bay | 3–1 | W |
| 4 Oct | vs Phoenix Rising | 2–1 | W |
| 1 Oct | at FC Tulsa | 0–1 | L |
| 27 Sep | vs Sacramento Republic | 2–3 | L |
| 20 Sep | at Colorado Springs | 0–0 | D |
Last 5 away: LLDDW
Season stats
| El Paso Locomotive | New Mexico United | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.66 | Goals scored per game | 1.52 |
| 1.28 | Goals conceded per game | 1.17 |
| 1.64 | Scored per game at home | 1.73 |
| 1.67 | Scored per game away | 1.29 |
| 62% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 55% |
| 62% | Both teams scored | 55% |
| 24% | Clean sheets | 28% |
| 14% | Failed to score | 28% |
League matches only, 29 games each.
USL Championship table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tampa Bay Rowdies | 30 | +26 | 61 | WWWLD |
| 2 | Charleston Battery | 30 | +21 | 53 | WWDLW |
| 3 | New Mexico United | 30 | +11 | 52 | WLWWL |
| 4 | Sacramento Republic | 30 | +14 | 51 | WWDDW |
| 5 | Detroit City | 30 | +13 | 51 | DLWWW |
| 6 | El Paso Locomotive | 30 | +10 | 50 | LLWLD |
| 7 | Lexington | 30 | +18 | 48 | DWDWW |
| 8 | Louisville City | 30 | +8 | 47 | DWWWD |
| 9 | Colorado Springs | 30 | +6 | 47 | WWDDD |
Head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: El Paso Locomotive won 3, New Mexico United 1, 2 draws; 3.7 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Jul 2026 | El Paso Locomotive | 0–2 | New Mexico United | USL League One Cup |
| 7 May 2026 | New Mexico United | 2–2 | El Paso Locomotive | USL Championship |
| 2 Apr 2026 | New Mexico United | 0–4 | El Paso Locomotive | US Open Cup |
| 28 Feb 2026 | El Paso Locomotive | 4–1 | New Mexico United | Friendlies Clubs |
| 4 May 2025 | El Paso Locomotive | 3–0 | New Mexico United | USL Championship |
| 17 Apr 2025 | New Mexico United | 2–2 | El Paso Locomotive | US Open Cup |
Match context
- Rest days
- El Paso Locomotive 6New Mexico United 6
- Matches in the last 14 days: El Paso Locomotive 2 · New Mexico United 2
- Referee
- C. Radosav
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
18+ · Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. If you bet, bet only what you can afford to lose. Responsible gambling
