Phoenix Rising vs Lexington prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour pre-match forecast · data model
Who wins?
Phoenix Rising to win: 42%, about 2 in 5
Goals call3+ goals 60% · bookies 60% · ✓ 6 goals
The Verdict
All three readings point to a close contest: Lexington's form and head-to-head edge are offset by Phoenix's strong home record. The coach and dressing room expect goals, while the sceptic flags the over line as slightly high after three low-scoring meetings. A narrow one-goal result either way looks the likeliest shape.
What our AI analysts say
1 of 3 think Lexington's chances are better than the bookmakers say. It does not make Lexington favourites.
The Coach
styles in the numbersPhoenix Rising score 1.86 per game at home against 1.07 away, while Lexington's away scoring matches their overall 1.86. Phoenix keep clean sheets in only 17% of matches and both teams score in 66% of theirs; Lexington manage 34% clean sheets.
The Dressing Room
the table and pressureLexington's higher table standing and stronger run give them the edge, but Phoenix's home form keeps it tight.
Lexington are 7th on 47 points from 29 games; Phoenix are 15th on 39. Lexington have won five of their last six, Phoenix three of six. Phoenix's home run reads W L W W W with 11 scored and 8 conceded, and both sides come in with a full week's rest.
The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongThe head-to-head record questions both the home percentage and the goals line.
Lexington have won all three recent meetings, yet those games produced just 1.3 goals per game, each under 2.5. The 60% over line leans on both sides' 59% season rate, but I make it nearer 55%. The 42% for Phoenix also looks a touch high given that record.
Lexington: slightly underrated
Fewer goalsLow Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
In short
Phoenix Rising are slight favourites at 42%, with Lexington on 34% and the draw on 24%. Phoenix Rising are 15th and Lexington 7th in the USL Championship. In their last five league games, Phoenix Rising won two and Lexington four.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Phoenix Rising win or draw
- 66%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 76%
- Lexington win or draw
- 58%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 82%
- 3+ goals
- 60%
- 4+ goals
- 38%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 62%
- No
- 38%
We expect about 1.7 goals from Phoenix Rising and 1.5 from Lexington. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (11%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 9. Next: 2–1 (9%), 1–2 (8%), 1–0 (7%), 2–2 (7%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 42% | 24% | 34% | Stats preview | #840 |
Frozen at kick-off. Version 1 is the one that counts in our track record. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Phoenix Rising: last 6
WWLLLW · 10 scored, 12 conceded
| 18 Oct | at Orange County SC | 3–1 | W |
| 11 Oct | vs Las Vegas Lights | 3–2 | W |
| 4 Oct | at New Mexico United | 1–2 | L |
| 27 Sep | at Oakland Roots | 0–3 | L |
| 20 Sep | vs El Paso Locomotive | 1–3 | L |
| 13 Sep | vs FC Tulsa | 2–1 | W |
Last 5 at home: WLWWW
Lexington: last 6
WDWWWW · 21 scored, 7 conceded
| 18 Oct | at Las Vegas Lights | 5–3 | W |
| 9 Oct | vs FC Tulsa | 0–0 | D |
| 3 Oct | vs El Paso Locomotive | 3–1 | W |
| 27 Sep | at Monterey Bay | 3–2 | W |
| 19 Sep | vs Orange County SC | 6–0 | W |
| 13 Sep | at Oakland Roots | 4–1 | W |
Last 5 away: WWWLL
Season stats
| Phoenix Rising | Lexington | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.45 | Goals scored per game | 1.86 |
| 1.48 | Goals conceded per game | 1.24 |
| 1.86 | Scored per game at home | 1.87 |
| 1.07 | Scored per game away | 1.86 |
| 59% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 59% |
| 66% | Both teams scored | 55% |
| 17% | Clean sheets | 34% |
| 21% | Failed to score | 24% |
League matches only, 29 games each.
USL Championship table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Sacramento Republic | 30 | +14 | 51 | WWDDW |
| 5 | Detroit City | 30 | +13 | 51 | DLWWW |
| 6 | El Paso Locomotive | 30 | +10 | 50 | LLWLD |
| 7 | Lexington | 30 | +18 | 48 | DWDWW |
| 8 | Louisville City | 30 | +8 | 47 | DWWWD |
| 9 | Colorado Springs | 30 | +6 | 47 | WWDDD |
| 10 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds | 30 | +3 | 45 | WDWLL |
| … | |||||
| 12 | FC Tulsa | 30 | +3 | 43 | LLDDW |
| 13 | Hartford Athletic | 30 | +2 | 43 | WLDLD |
| 14 | Rhode Island | 30 | +9 | 42 | LDWLW |
| 15 | Phoenix Rising | 30 | -1 | 40 | DWWLL |
| 16 | Orange County SC | 30 | -10 | 39 | LLLLW |
| 17 | Oakland Roots | 30 | -1 | 38 | LWDDW |
| 18 | Las Vegas Lights | 30 | -7 | 36 | LLLWL |
Head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Phoenix Rising won 0, Lexington 3, 0 draws; 1.3 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Aug 2026 | Lexington | 1–0 | Phoenix Rising | USL Championship |
| 9 Aug 2025 | Lexington | 2–0 | Phoenix Rising | USL Championship |
| 5 Jul 2025 | Phoenix Rising | 0–1 | Lexington | USL Championship |
Match context
- Rest days
- Phoenix Rising 7Lexington 6
- Matches in the last 14 days: Phoenix Rising 1 · Lexington 1
- Referee
- N. Bensalah
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
18+ · Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. If you bet, bet only what you can afford to lose. Responsible gambling
