Pittsburgh Riverhounds vs Birmingham Legion prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour pre-match forecast · data model
Who wins?
Pittsburgh Riverhounds to win: 51%, about 1 in 2
Goals call2 goals or fewer 57% · bookies 57% · ✗ 3 goals
The Verdict
All three readings lean the same way: a home win built on Pittsburgh's sturdy home defence and Birmingham's short rest and travel, with goals likely limited to two or three. Published numbers of 53-27-20 and 45% for over 2.5 fit that picture, with only modest nudge in either direction across the cards.
What our AI analysts say
All three think Pittsburgh Riverhounds's chances are better than the bookmakers say.
The Coach
styles in the numbersPittsburgh's home defence sets the tone in a lowish-scoring game.
Pittsburgh concede 1.00 per game with 31% clean sheets and have let in just two at home across their last five there, while failing to score 38% of the time.
Pittsburgh Riverhounds: clearly underrated
Med The Dressing Room
the table and pressureRest gap and table stakes point toward the home side.
Pittsburgh sit 12th on 42 points from 29 games, six points and six places above Birmingham's 30. The home side have six days' rest and one game in 14 days, while Birmingham play their third match in 14 days with just three days' recovery.
Pittsburgh Riverhounds: clearly underrated
Med The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongMarket home lean looks fair; away win maybe slightly generous at 20%.
The 53/27/20 split matches the data well.
Pittsburgh Riverhounds: slightly underrated
Low Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
In short
Pittsburgh Riverhounds are favourites at 51%, with Birmingham Legion on 21% and the draw on 28%. Pittsburgh Riverhounds are 12th and Birmingham Legion 22nd in the USL Championship. In their last five league games, Pittsburgh Riverhounds won two and Birmingham Legion three.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Pittsburgh Riverhounds win or draw
- 78%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 72%
- Birmingham Legion win or draw
- 49%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 69%
- 3+ goals
- 43%
- 4+ goals
- 22%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 46%
- No
- 54%
We expect about 1.5 goals from Pittsburgh Riverhounds and 0.9 from Birmingham Legion. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–0 (14%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 7. Next: 1–1 (12%), 2–0 (10%), 2–1 (9%), 0–0 (9%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
Frozen at kick-off. Version 2 is the one that counts in our track record. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Pittsburgh Riverhounds: last 6
DWLLWD · 6 scored, 6 conceded
| 17 Oct | at Rhode Island | 1–1 | D |
| 10 Oct | vs Hartford Athletic | 2–1 | W |
| 27 Sep | at Orange County SC | 0–1 | L |
| 19 Sep | at Detroit City | 0–1 | L |
| 12 Sep | vs Loudoun United | 1–0 | W |
| 6 Sep | at Miami FC | 2–2 | D |
Last 5 at home: WWDWD
Birmingham Legion: last 6
WDWLWL · 7 scored, 6 conceded
| 21 Oct | at Brooklyn | 2–1 | W |
| 18 Oct | vs Loudoun United | 0–0 | D |
| 14 Oct | at Sporting JAX | 1–0 | W |
| 3 Oct | at Detroit City | 0–1 | L |
| 23 Sep | vs Brooklyn | 4–0 | W |
| 19 Sep | at Tampa Bay Rowdies | 0–4 | L |
Last 5 away: WWLLD
Season stats
| Pittsburgh Riverhounds | Birmingham Legion | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.07 | Goals scored per game | 1.34 |
| 1.00 | Goals conceded per game | 1.52 |
| 1.21 | Scored per game at home | 1.33 |
| 0.93 | Scored per game away | 1.36 |
| 38% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 55% |
| 41% | Both teams scored | 62% |
| 31% | Clean sheets | 24% |
| 38% | Failed to score | 24% |
League matches only, 29 games each.
USL Championship table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Lexington | 30 | +18 | 48 | DWDWW |
| 8 | Louisville City | 30 | +8 | 47 | DWWWD |
| 9 | Colorado Springs | 30 | +6 | 47 | WWDDD |
| 10 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds | 30 | +3 | 45 | WDWLL |
| 11 | San Antonio | 30 | +2 | 45 | WWDLD |
| 12 | FC Tulsa | 30 | +3 | 43 | LLDDW |
| 13 | Hartford Athletic | 30 | +2 | 43 | WLDLD |
| … | |||||
| 19 | Miami FC | 30 | -10 | 36 | LLWWW |
| 20 | Indy Eleven | 30 | -6 | 34 | LLLDL |
| 21 | Loudoun United | 30 | -10 | 31 | WDLWD |
| 22 | Birmingham Legion | 30 | -6 | 30 | LWDWL |
| 23 | Monterey Bay | 30 | -20 | 24 | WLLWL |
| 24 | Brooklyn | 30 | -29 | 21 | LLWLL |
| 25 | Sporting JAX | 30 | -46 | 14 | LLLLL |
Head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Pittsburgh Riverhounds won 3, Birmingham Legion 1, 2 draws; 2.2 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Apr 2026 | Birmingham Legion | 1–0 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds | USL Championship |
| 24 Aug 2025 | Birmingham Legion | 1–1 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds | USL Championship |
| 29 Mar 2025 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds | 2–0 | Birmingham Legion | USL Championship |
| 28 Sep 2024 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds | 1–1 | Birmingham Legion | USL Championship |
| 24 Aug 2024 | Birmingham Legion | 0–3 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds | USL Championship |
| 13 May 2023 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds | 2–1 | Birmingham Legion | USL Championship |
Match context
- Rest days
- Pittsburgh Riverhounds 6Birmingham Legion 3
- Matches in the last 14 days: Pittsburgh Riverhounds 1 · Birmingham Legion 3
- Referee
- M. Kaleia
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
18+ · Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. If you bet, bet only what you can afford to lose. Responsible gambling
