Sacramento Republic vs Oakland Roots prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour pre-match forecast · data model
Who wins?
Sacramento Republic to win: 64%, about 2 in 3
Goals call2 goals or fewer 50% · bookies 50% · ✗ 5 goals
The Verdict
The sceptic's note on Oakland's away record and the 4.0 goals per game in recent head-to-heads is the main counterweight, nudging the over 2.5 goals chance slightly above the published 50%, though the coach's low-scoring season profile keeps that close to even.
What our AI analysts say
All three broadly agree with the bookmakers.
The Coach
styles in the numbersSacramento's home scoring and tight defence give them the edge, but goals may be scarce.
Sacramento score 1.71 per game at home and concede just 0.90 per game overall, with clean sheets in 34% of matches. Oakland actually score more away (1.43) than at home (1.13).
The Dressing Room
the table and pressureThe table gap and equal rest point to a home side with more to play for.
Sacramento sit 6th on 48 points from 29 games (W12 D12 L5), while Oakland are 17th on 38 points (W9 D11 L9). Both teams have had 7 days' rest with one game in 14 days, so freshness is even. Sacramento's unbeaten home run of D W D W D shows they are hard to beat in front of their own fans.
The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongThe home price looks a touch rich given Oakland's away form and the head-to-head record.
Oakland have won three of their last five away games, scoring 6 and conceding 3, and they beat Sacramento 1-3 earlier in 2026. The last six head-to-heads brought 4.0 goals per game, which sits above the 50% over 2.5 line. Sacramento's last six include three draws, so 64% home looks slightly high.
Sacramento Republic: slightly overrated
More goalsLow Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
In short
Sacramento Republic are clear favourites at 64%, with Oakland Roots on 15% and the draw on 21%. Sacramento Republic are 6th and Oakland Roots 17th in the USL Championship. In their last five league games, Sacramento Republic won three and Oakland Roots three.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Sacramento Republic win or draw
- 85%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 79%
- Oakland Roots win or draw
- 36%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 75%
- 3+ goals
- 50%
- 4+ goals
- 28%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 46%
- No
- 54%
We expect about 1.9 goals from Sacramento Republic and 0.8 from Oakland Roots. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–0 (13%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 8. Next: 2–0 (12%), 1–1 (10%), 2–1 (10%), 3–0 (8%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 64% | 21% | 15% | Stats preview | #839 |
Frozen at kick-off. Version 1 is the one that counts in our track record. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Sacramento Republic: last 6
WDDWWD · 9 scored, 6 conceded
| 18 Oct | at El Paso Locomotive | 1–0 | W |
| 11 Oct | vs Colorado Springs | 1–1 | D |
| 4 Oct | at FC Tulsa | 1–1 | D |
| 1 Oct | vs Las Vegas Lights | 3–2 | W |
| 27 Sep | at New Mexico United | 3–2 | W |
| 20 Sep | vs San Antonio | 0–0 | D |
Last 5 at home: DWDWD
Oakland Roots: last 6
WDDWWL · 9 scored, 6 conceded
| 18 Oct | at FC Tulsa | 4–2 | W |
| 11 Oct | vs San Antonio | 0–0 | D |
| 4 Oct | at Colorado Springs | 0–0 | D |
| 27 Sep | vs Phoenix Rising | 3–0 | W |
| 20 Sep | at Indy Eleven | 1–0 | W |
| 13 Sep | vs Lexington | 1–4 | L |
Last 5 away: WDWWL
Season stats
| Sacramento Republic | Oakland Roots | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.34 | Goals scored per game | 1.28 |
| 0.90 | Goals conceded per game | 1.28 |
| 1.71 | Scored per game at home | 1.13 |
| 1.00 | Scored per game away | 1.43 |
| 31% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 45% |
| 55% | Both teams scored | 55% |
| 34% | Clean sheets | 28% |
| 21% | Failed to score | 31% |
League matches only, 29 games each.
USL Championship table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tampa Bay Rowdies | 30 | +26 | 61 | WWWLD |
| 2 | Charleston Battery | 30 | +21 | 53 | WWDLW |
| 3 | New Mexico United | 30 | +11 | 52 | WLWWL |
| 4 | Sacramento Republic | 30 | +14 | 51 | WWDDW |
| 5 | Detroit City | 30 | +13 | 51 | DLWWW |
| 6 | El Paso Locomotive | 30 | +10 | 50 | LLWLD |
| 7 | Lexington | 30 | +18 | 48 | DWDWW |
| … | |||||
| 14 | Rhode Island | 30 | +9 | 42 | LDWLW |
| 15 | Phoenix Rising | 30 | -1 | 40 | DWWLL |
| 16 | Orange County SC | 30 | -10 | 39 | LLLLW |
| 17 | Oakland Roots | 30 | -1 | 38 | LWDDW |
| 18 | Las Vegas Lights | 30 | -7 | 36 | LLLWL |
| 19 | Miami FC | 30 | -10 | 36 | LLWWW |
| 20 | Indy Eleven | 30 | -6 | 34 | LLLDL |
Head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Sacramento Republic won 4, Oakland Roots 1, 1 draw; 4.0 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 Jul 2026 | Oakland Roots | 1–3 | Sacramento Republic | USL Championship |
| 17 May 2026 | Oakland Roots | 0–1 | Sacramento Republic | USL League One Cup |
| 17 Aug 2025 | Sacramento Republic | 3–3 | Oakland Roots | USL Championship |
| 4 May 2025 | Oakland Roots | 0–1 | Sacramento Republic | USL Championship |
| 21 Jul 2024 | Oakland Roots | 2–5 | Sacramento Republic | USL Championship |
| 16 Jun 2024 | Sacramento Republic | 2–3 | Oakland Roots | USL Championship |
Match context
- Rest days
- Sacramento Republic 7Oakland Roots 7
- Matches in the last 14 days: Sacramento Republic 1 · Oakland Roots 1
- Referee
- J. Griggs
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
18+ · Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. If you bet, bet only what you can afford to lose. Responsible gambling
