Monterey Bay vs Las Vegas Lights prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour pre-match forecast · data model
Who wins?
Wide open: no clear favourite (Monterey Bay 38%)
Goals call3+ goals 64% · bookies 64% · ✓ 3 goals
The Verdict
The analysis suggests a high-scoring encounter driven by defensive weaknesses, despite the tight league standings. While Las Vegas Lights hold a points advantage, the recent form and H2H history point towards a competitive, open match.
What our AI analysts say
All three broadly agree with the bookmakers.
The Coach
styles in the numbersBoth sides show defensive frailties, suggesting an open contest with high goal expectations.
Monterey Bay concedes 1.76 goals per game, while Las Vegas Lights concede 1.59. Both teams are expected to score 1.6 goals based on the data.
The Dressing Room
the table and pressureThe mid-table battle is tight, with Las Vegas Lights holding a significant points advantage.
Las Vegas Lights sit 18th with 36 points, compared to Monterey Bay's 23rd place with 21 points.
The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongThe market pricing appears balanced, but recent form suggests a tight, defensive affair.
In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Las Vegas Lights won 3 times. Monterey Bay's last 5 home games saw them concede 11 goals.
Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
In short
Monterey Bay are slight favourites at 38%, with Las Vegas Lights on 38% and the draw on 24%. Monterey Bay are 23rd and Las Vegas Lights 18th in the USL Championship. In their last five league games, Monterey Bay won one and Las Vegas Lights one.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Monterey Bay win or draw
- 62%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 76%
- Las Vegas Lights win or draw
- 62%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 84%
- 3+ goals
- 64%
- 4+ goals
- 41%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 65%
- No
- 35%
We expect about 1.6 goals from Monterey Bay and 1.6 from Las Vegas Lights. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (10%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 10. Next: 1–2 (8%), 2–1 (8%), 2–2 (7%), 0–1 (6%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 38% | 24% | 38% | Stats preview | #838 |
Frozen at kick-off. Version 1 is the one that counts in our track record. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Monterey Bay: last 6
LLWLLD · 6 scored, 10 conceded
| 18 Oct | vs Colorado Springs | 0–1 | L |
| 11 Oct | at New Mexico United | 1–3 | L |
| 4 Oct | at Orange County SC | 2–1 | W |
| 27 Sep | vs Lexington | 2–3 | L |
| 19 Sep | at Charleston Battery | 0–1 | L |
| 6 Sep | vs Phoenix Rising | 1–1 | D |
Last 5 at home: LLDDL
Las Vegas Lights: last 6
LLWLDW · 11 scored, 12 conceded
| 18 Oct | vs Lexington | 3–5 | L |
| 11 Oct | at Phoenix Rising | 2–3 | L |
| 4 Oct | vs San Antonio | 1–0 | W |
| 1 Oct | at Sacramento Republic | 2–3 | L |
| 20 Sep | vs Hartford Athletic | 1–1 | D |
| 13 Sep | at Orange County SC | 2–0 | W |
Last 5 away: LLWLW
Season stats
| Monterey Bay | Las Vegas Lights | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.03 | Goals scored per game | 1.38 |
| 1.76 | Goals conceded per game | 1.59 |
| 1.21 | Scored per game at home | 1.20 |
| 0.87 | Scored per game away | 1.57 |
| 52% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 52% |
| 62% | Both teams scored | 66% |
| 14% | Clean sheets | 28% |
| 31% | Failed to score | 14% |
League matches only, 29 games each.
USL Championship table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Phoenix Rising | 30 | -1 | 40 | DWWLL |
| 16 | Orange County SC | 30 | -10 | 39 | LLLLW |
| 17 | Oakland Roots | 30 | -1 | 38 | LWDDW |
| 18 | Las Vegas Lights | 30 | -7 | 36 | LLLWL |
| 19 | Miami FC | 30 | -10 | 36 | LLWWW |
| 20 | Indy Eleven | 30 | -6 | 34 | LLLDL |
| 21 | Loudoun United | 30 | -10 | 31 | WDLWD |
| 22 | Birmingham Legion | 30 | -6 | 30 | LWDWL |
| 23 | Monterey Bay | 30 | -20 | 24 | WLLWL |
| 24 | Brooklyn | 30 | -29 | 21 | LLWLL |
| 25 | Sporting JAX | 30 | -46 | 14 | LLLLL |
Head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Monterey Bay won 1, Las Vegas Lights 3, 2 draws; 2.3 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Jul 2026 | Monterey Bay | 2–3 | Las Vegas Lights | USL League One Cup |
| 29 Mar 2026 | Las Vegas Lights | 1–0 | Monterey Bay | USL Championship |
| 26 Oct 2025 | Monterey Bay | 1–1 | Las Vegas Lights | USL Championship |
| 15 Jun 2025 | Las Vegas Lights | 2–0 | Monterey Bay | USL Championship |
| 15 Sep 2024 | Las Vegas Lights | 0–0 | Monterey Bay | USL Championship |
| 14 Apr 2024 | Monterey Bay | 3–1 | Las Vegas Lights | USL Championship |
Match context
- Rest days
- Monterey Bay 7Las Vegas Lights 6
- Matches in the last 14 days: Monterey Bay 1 · Las Vegas Lights 1
- Referee
- B. Frey
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
18+ · Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. If you bet, bet only what you can afford to lose. Responsible gambling
